In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it is the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS MLB, we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. We are going to be searching for one SP, one IF, and one OF. The type of player we are looking for allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high-salary studs. Sometimes, it will be a high-priced stud in a great spot. The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the day’s Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. For each slate, we will take a deep look at a few players who represent outsized value for that day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slate’s free square of the night.
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Free Square MLB Plays for Tonight…
Apr 24, 2022; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole (45) pitches in the fifth inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
SP Gerrit Cole $10000
NYY @ KC
There are 7 MLB games today on the DraftKings main slate. Most of the games feature strong arms on the mound. We always have to prioritize Coors bats when they exist. Today, Cincinnati gets the privilege to play in Colorado. The Reds are extremely cheap that they are close to must plays. This value allows us to spend up at pitching. Gerrit Cole is going to be one of the higher-owned pitchers today. He started the season off slow with three poor outings. Cole might have figured something out the last start against the Guardians going 6.2 innings, not allowing a run, and striking out nine. The Guardians are not the toughest matchup but he is facing the Royals today who are not either.
Kansas City does not strike out a lot against RHPs, but they do not hit well. They are near the bottom five in the league across multiple categories including wRC+, AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, ISO, and BABIP. Cole has had some home run issues throughout his career. With the Royals ranking low in power categories, Cole has a good shot of not giving up the long ball today. Salvador Perez is the biggest threat here but so far he is 0-6 against Cole in his career. As a team, the Royals are 11-65 vs Cole. I prefer Cole over Kershaw because he has the longer leash. Dave Roberts is quick to yank Kershaw out of the game. It is easy to roster both studs with the Reds bats though.
Just missed the cut: Clayton Kershaw, Nathan Eovaldi
SS Trea Turner $5500
LAD vs DET
Even after plugging in Cole, Kershaw, and the Reds bats, you can afford some more studs like Trea Turner. There are a lot of great infield options today. All of the Coors bats are excellent plays. I am not putting one here though because I do not want the IF and OF plays to both be Coors. The Reds value comes at all the positions but shortstop is a weak spot on today’s slate. Kyle Farmer and Jose Iglesias are not the best bats. We can roster their teammates and have a lot of salary left to pay for players in other games. The Dodgers are facing arguably the worst pitcher on today’s slate in Beau Brieske. He could turn out to be great but pitching against one of the best lineups in baseball on the road is no easy task.
LA is implied for 5.4 runs. Trea is the choice here because he is a SS. 1B and OF are stacked so it is tough to roster Freddie Freeman or Mookie Betts. You would have to sacrifice a value spot for them. That means they could be low-owned though so they are great plays. Turner is in the best spot out of the SSs today. Tucker Barnhart has started the last two games. He usually sits against lefties and that is the case today with Kershaw on the bump. That means Dustin Garneau will do the catching. Barnhart throws out close to 32% of base stealers. Turner was still able to steal one off of him Friday night. Garneau presents a serious dropoff. Brieske is going to have a tough time paying attention to the man on first and the batter. After a rare hitless game on Friday, Turner should get on base tonight and run wild. He is the man at shortstop today.
Just missed the cut: C.J. Cron, DJ LeMahieu, Ryan McMahon, Jonathan India, Nate Lowe, Alec Bohm, Joey Votto, Kyle Farmer, Colin Moran, Mike Moustakas, Aramis Garcia
OF Tyler Naquin $3000 / OF Tommy Pham $2900
CIN @ COL
It is hard to choose just one so why not both? The Reds are priced like they are facing prime Randy Johnson in Arizona. Coors bats should never be this cheap. Even when a good pitcher is pitching here, hitters generally are still priced close to 5k. Chad Kuhl is no Randy Johnson. He has had three solid starts this season. 2 of which have been on the road while 1 at home where he surprisingly prevented the Phillies from scoring. Kuhl was a bit lucky in that game at home as both teams had a xBA of .245 but the Rockies won 4-1. Philadelphia had a lot of hard-hit balls that just did not result in a good outcome. Kuhl has a .521 xFIP across the last two seasons. He has had an ERA above 4 in his first five seasons with 2 of those carrying an xERA of above 6. Kuhl is 29 years old so he could have figured something out. Going off of just three starts though is a bit early to assume that though.
Pham is quietly heating up. His savant page features a lot of red. He is ranked in the 94th percentile in hard-hit rate. That bodes well in Coors as the ball absolutely carries there. Kuhl carries a 12.3% walk rate. In the event that Pham gets walked or singles, he is a threat to run. He has some speed which provides another way of scoring fantasy points. Naquin has generally been a platoon player. This season though, he has taken a lot of at-bats against LHPs. Cincinnati likes to go R/L/R throughout their entire lineup. Unless there is an inning that leads off with Naquin, he should face a righty the whole game. He does not have the same eye as Pham but does get the platoon advantage here. Naquin has decent power. Kuhl allows a 42.5% hard-hit rate to LHBs.
Just missed the cut: Charlie Blackmon, Randal Grichuk, Alex Verdugo, Hunter Renfroe, Joey Gallo, Kole Calhoun, Sam Hilliard, Nick Senzel, Franchy Cordero
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