In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it is the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS MLB, we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. We are going to be searching for one SP, one IF, and one OF. The type of player we are looking for allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high-salary studs. Sometimes, it will be a high-priced stud in a great spot. The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the day’s Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. For each slate, we will take a deep look at a few players who represent outsized value for that day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slate’s free square of the night.
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Free Square MLB Plays for Tonight…
Apr 8, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios (17) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Texas Rangers at Rogers Centre . Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
SP Jose Berrios $5500
TOR vs BOS
There are 7 MLB games today, all are on the main slate. The slate locks at 6:10pm ET which is about an hour earlier than usual. The pitcher position is stacked today. Most people are going to choose an ace out of Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, Max Scherzer, and Walker Buehler. That second pitcher position belongs to Jose Berrios. He should be the highest-owned player on the slate. He is simply too talented to be priced this cheap. Berrios was $8900 in his first start. This price is about where he usually was last season. That first start did not go well. He then followed it up with two better showings against two of the toughest lineups in the majors, the Yankees and the Red Sox. Yet, his price just keeps on dropping.
Berrios will be going up against the Red Sox again tonight so it is not an easy matchup. However, this is a misprice. He has great stuff as he put up 21.5 DKpts last time out. Boston is only implied for 4.1 runs. The Blue Jays are favored to win despite the starting pitcher price discrepancy with Nathan Eovaldi at $8000. Berrios has flashed his upside throughout the years. He has been somewhat inconsistent. Those concerns are mitigated by his price tag today. Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez is dealing with a groin issue that has sidelined him for the past four games. Taking him out of the lineup will make things easier for Berrios as he went 2-2 back on April 20, a game in which Berrios started. Rostering this talented of an SP allows you to stack the better offenses today in Philadelphia, Houston, and LA.
Just missed the cut: Corbin Burnes, Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler, Kyle Gibson
SS Willy Adames $4500
MIL vs SF
The shortstop position today is weak. Trea Turner is going to be a part of Dodger stacks but Merill Kelly has pitched well this season. Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, and Bo Bichette do not have the easiest matchups. Willy Adames is properly priced beneath all of these players. San Francisco is expected to open with lefty Sam Long. He went 2 innings last time and should pitch for that long as well today. Carlos Rodon is starting Tuesday so Monday seems like a bullpen game. Adames does not crush lefties. He actually has reverse splits. Adames will likely only see one at-bat against Long. He hits in the 2-hole except on Sunday night when he hit 3rd. Christian Yelich and Andrew McCutchen surrounding him help him with runs and RBIs.
Adames is going to draw ownership because of how the SS position is today. He is an easier fit for most lineups because none of the elite options stand out. You do not have to punt the position because Berrios provides value already. Miller Park is one of the better hitting environments in baseball. The Giants pitchers will not be able to enjoy the friendly confines of Oracle Park. The wind will be blowing out towards LF at 15mph which is going to help right-handed batters like Adames. Since the Giants are using an opener, we cannot go in-depth on how the rest of the game will go. We do not know who is going to follow Long. I would expect there to be a lot of righties which is the side that Adames excels at.
Just missed the cut: Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura, Marcus Semien, Alec Bohm
OF Michael Brantley $3500
HOU @ TEX
It seems like Michael Brantley has been in the league forever. He is actually 34 years old and just keeps raking. He is not known for his power but can definitely hit one out as he did so on Sunday. Brantley is a staple in the Houston lineup hitting out of the 2-hole. Jose Altuve has been out but Jeremy Pena has done an admirable job filling in and leading off. The Astros are taking on the Rangers today. Dane Dunning will be on the mound. He is $5200 which makes Berrios look like the best play of the season so far. Houston is implied for 4.6 runs but this should rise by game time. Dunning just is not very good. His savant page is completely blue. The righty should have a tough time against the Astros.
On 300ABs last season, Brantley batted .360 with only 29 strikeouts against RHPs. He does not strike out often. Dunning is ranked in the 18th percentile in generating whiffs. On the other side, Brantley is in the 93rd percentile. He is going to make contact with the ball today in his ABs against Dunning. As long as variance is on our side, Brantley should get some hits. Someone hitting 2nd on a good offensive team against a below-average pitcher is too cheap at $3500. Brantley should probably be about 1k more. I really like Kyle Tucker as well because his numbers suggest that he has been unlucky to start the year. When he gets it going, he is going to be a 5k player. Houston is in a good spot today.
Just missed the cut: Nick Castellanos, Mookie Betts, Kyle Tucker, Adolis Garcia, Hunter Renfroe, Andrew McCutchen, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Cody Bellinger, Josh Naylor
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