In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it is the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS MLB, we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. We are going to be searching for one SP, one IF, and one OF. The type of player we are looking for allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high-salary studs. Sometimes, it will be a high-priced stud in a great spot. The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the day’s Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. For each slate, we will take a deep look at a few players who represent outsized value for that day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slate’s free square of the night.
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Free Square MLB Plays for Tonight…
Oct 14, 2021; San Francisco, California, USA; San Francisco Giants left fielder Darin Ruf (33) reacts after striking out against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the eighth inning in game five of the 2021 NLDS at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports
SP Zac Gallen $6300
ARI vs NYM
We have a big 13-game main slate for Friday. Justin Verlander sits at the top of the pitcher position. He gets a tough matchup against Toronto. He might get more ownership than he should because he simply looks better than the other options around him including Julio Urias, who has workload concerns. Toronto is a threat to score double-digit runs any day but they also do not strike out a lot making it tough for opposing pitchers to have good fantasy games. Instead, I am looking to Zac Gallen at a discounted price. He also has workload concerns because this is his 2nd start since returning from injury. He went 4 innings on 66 pitches the first time out but looked excellent against this same Mets team.
Gallen was $9300 last start. He pitched well but DraftKings decided to drop his price by 3k. He is too talented to be this cheap even though he likely will not go over 80 pitches. I think there is an argument to be made that he is better than all the pitchers priced below $8900 (Freddy Peralta) who are starting today. The pitchers today are kind of gross. This might inflate Gallen’s ownership but the savings allows you to pay for any bat and 2nd starter you want. Chase Field is a better pitcher’s park than Citi Field. The win is a concern for any Arizona pitcher. The Mets are a good team but they are sending David Peterson to the mound today. Last season, the Diamondbacks hit much better against LHPs than RHPs. They get to face one today at home helping Gallen’s chances of a win.
Just missed the cut: Kyle Wright, Jameson Taillon, Trevor Rogers
1B Darin Ruf $2400
SF @ WAS
The first base position is one of the more stacked positions. There is certainly opportunity cost here with 13 games on this slate. The Baltimore duo of Ryan Mountcastle and Trey Mancini are very strong value options as well. Ruf is cheaper than both of them. He was a platoon player last season, hitting high in the order against LHPs. This season, he is an everyday player. We do not have to worry about him possibly getting pinch-hit for. The universal DH could have something to do with his new role as well. His teammate, Austin Slater is also $2400 but is at significant pinch hit risk for Mike Yastrzemski once Patrick Corbin exits the game. Ruf is not having the best start to the 2022 season. I am not worried though as it has only been 2 weeks. He is making good contact with the ball.
Ruf’s stats will not be as great as last season since he is facing more right-handed pitching this season. He hit .283, 9 HR, 21 RBI against LHPs and .262, 7 HR, 22 RBI against RHPs in 2021. He had 36 more ABs as a RHB but struck out 31 more times from the right side of the plate. The puzzle pieces fit together for Ruf today. He faces a lefty in Corbin who struggles against RHBs. He allows a .388 wOBA, .255 ISO, and 45.4% hard-hit rate to righties. Corbin’s baseball savant page is full of blue. By the way, blue is not good. That means the player ranks low in percentile compared to the entire league. At $2400, Ruf should be a popular value option today. He is playing at a better hitter’s park than Oracle, with the platoon advantage, and hitting near the top of the order.
Just missed the cut: Ozzie Albies, Anthony Rendon, Austin Riley, Carson Kelly, Ryan Mountcastle, Brad Miller, Wilmer Flores, Nate Lowe, Seth Brown, Trey Mancini, Travis d’Arnaud, Matt Davidson
OF Marcell Ozuna $3000
ATL @ MIA
I expect Ozuna to be a highly-rostered player today. He is simply too talented to be this cheap. Trevor Rogers has had a dreadful start to the season. He was excellent last year and there is plenty of time to turn it around. For tournaments, Rogers is a sneaky play at $6500. He was around 9k last season. Ozuna should not be 3k no matter who he is facing. He gets the platoon advantage today against the lefty Rogers. Rogers is walking hitters too much and is not generating a lot of swings and misses. He throws a standard three-pitch mix including a fastball, changeup, and slider. This is a small sample size but he has generated 0 whiffs on 33 changeups this season. He allowed only a .199 avg last season on that pitch.
If Rogers cannot get his changeup going, Ozuna should take advantage. He has hit this pitch well throughout his career. The stats will show that pretty much everyone hits the fastball well. Rogers throws it 58% of the time. The changeup is his 2nd most frequently used pitch. There are a lot of lefty mashers on this Atlanta team. Ozzie Albies should bat leadoff, Austin Riley, Travis d’Arnaud, Adam Duvall, and of course Ozuna all hit well against LHPs. Ozuna should hit cleanup meaning that there should be a lot of RBI opportunities for him. Rogers is dealing with some control issues to begin the year. If those are not fixed, Ozuna will be hitting with runners on base.
Just missed the cut: Austin Meadows, Aaron Hicks, Joey Gallo, Josh Lowe, Adam Duvall, Austin Slater
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