In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it is the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS MLB, we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. We are going to be searching for one SP, one IF, and one OF. The type of player we are looking for allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high-salary studs. Sometimes, it will be a high-priced stud in a great spot. The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the day’s Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. For each slate, we will take a deep look at a few players who represent outsized value for that day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slate’s free square of the night.
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Free Square MLB Plays for Tonight…
Apr 13, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) throws to the Minnesota Twins in the second inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports
SP Clayton Kershaw $10300
LAD vs ATL
There are 9 games for today’s main slate. 2 of these 9 could be postponed due to rain. Those are the Diamondbacks vs Nationals and Giants vs Mets. It is looking like it will rain for hours at both Nationals Park and Citi Field. I decided to put players in these two games only in the just missed the cut sections so the core plays come from games that should play. There is another Coors series to start this week. DraftKings priced up the Phillies but left the Rockies all too cheap. In order to get to Philadelphia, we need to find some value. You could find some cheaper options at SP but Clayton Kershaw is going to be tough to fade today. He is coming off of 7 perfect innings against the Twins for 45.75DKpts.
He stands at the top of the pitching position with Aaron Nola at Coors, Luis Garcia against an Angels team that does not strike out, and Tyler Megill in a possible PPD. Atlanta is no easy matchup. They have hitters who have good numbers against LHPs such as Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley. However, Kershaw is the best pitcher on today’s slate when factoring in everything. That Dodgers offense will always put their starter in line for a win. The veteran looked as sharp as can be the last start putting those health questions to rest. Atlanta is only implied for 3.4 runs tonight. Dodger Stadium will be rocking for Kershaw at home, a pitcher-friendly ballpark.
Just missed the cut: Shane McClanahan, Alex Cobb, Frankie Montas
1B Rowdy Tellez $2800
MIL vs PIT
The first 4 hitters of the Phillies lineup, Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, and Nick Castellanos are all at least $5400. They will not be as high-owned as the Cubs were this past weekend but DFS players love to roster Coors players. In order to stack the Phillies, we need to find value options. Tellez will be facing off against righty Zach Thompson. Thompson got hit in the shoulder last start but is expected to make his scheduled start today. He has a 19.5% K rate against LHBs. Tellez strikes out 20.3% of the time against RHPs. Thompson throws the cutter the most out of his pitches at 37% of the time to left-handed bats. From 2019-2022, Tellez has seen 192 cutters. He has had at least a 40% hard-hit rate in all of these seasons against the cutter. He put 14 cutters in play the last 3 seasons for a .333 wOBA and .316 ISO.
Tellez has good numbers against Thompson’s most frequently used pitch. This game is at Miller Park which ranked as the 3rd best hitter’s park in 2021. The wind will be blowing out towards center field today at 13mph. Tellez is projected to hit 5th today. If the Pirates put in a lefty to face Tellez after Thompson departs, it really is not a bad spot for Tellez either. He has handled left-handed pitching well in his career. He hit .276 in 58 at-bats last season against LHPs. Andrew McCutchen should hit ahead of Tellez and Hunter Renfroe will be behind him. Putting in a lefty and giving these two the platoon advantage is not a smart strategy. At only $2800, Tellez is in a favorable spot tonight.
Just missed the cut: Manny Machado, CJ Cron, Ryan McMahon, Didi Gregorius, Ji-Man Choi, Cesar Hernandez, Jed Lowrie, Tony Kemp, Luke Voit, Omar Narvaez, Johan Camargo, Edwin Rios
OF Jurickson Profar $2700
SD vs CIN
An outfield saving option is Profar. The switch-hitter had a down year last season hitting just .154 against LHPs. Profar has gotten off to a hot start with 2 of his 3 home runs off of lefties. Tonight he will be facing one in Nick Lodolo. He showed great stuff in the minor leagues with both a high strikeout rate and a high groundball rate. Lodolo made his major league debut last time out against the Guardians and it did not go well. He gave up 5ER in 4IP including 2HRs. The sinker-baller threw his sinker 65% of the time in his first start. Profar has a .516 wOBA, .273 ISO, and 5% whiff rate against the sinker from LHPs in the past 3 seasons off of 23 batted balls in play.
These are insane numbers for the former top prospect. Profar has never put it all together. Maybe this is the start of one of his better years. He hits in the bottom part of the Padres lineup, usually 6th or 7th. Lodolo struggled with his control in the first start issuing 3 free passes. Profar could have multiple at-bats with runners on tonight. Manny Machado has been on fire. Luke Voit sees the ball much better against LHPs. As long as Eric Hosmer does not ground into a double play with his 57% groundball rate, Profar should have plenty of chances to drive his teammates in. Compared to Tellez, Profar is OF eligible. We get to roster three so there is less opportunity cost than at 1B which is typically a stacked position.
Just missed the cut: Kris Bryant, Michael Brantley, Connor Joe, Charlie Blackmon, David Peralta, Jeff McNeil, Seth Brown, Tommy Pham, Aristides Aquino, Brandon Drury
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