In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it is the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS MLB, we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. We are going to be searching for one SP, one IF, and one OF. The type of player we are looking for allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high-salary studs. Sometimes, it will be a high-priced stud in a great spot. The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the day’s Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. For each slate, we will take a deep look at a few players who represent outsized value for that day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slate’s free square of the night.
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Free Square MLB Plays for Tonight…
Apr 9, 2022; Anaheim, California, USA; Los Angeles Angels first baseman Jared Walsh (20) rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run against the Houston Astros during the second inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
SP Ranger Suarez $8900
PHI vs NYM
DraftKings and FanDuel decided to include the two earlier games so this slate is starting 25 minutes earlier than usual. We have 7 games today but the pitching position is difficult to pick today. There are a lot of good pitchers but they all have their warts. They are too expensive, do not strike out enough batters, or face severe workload limitations. Ranger Suarez is projected to be a breakout pitcher this season. There was quite a bit of hype going into season-long drafts. This should carry a bit over into the DFS world. He was lights out against LHBs last year allowing only a .177 wOBA, .019 ISO, 70% groundball rate, and 25.7% hard-hit rate. On top of this, he had a 3.90 xFIP and 24.2% K rate. He throws the sinker a lot leading to a lot of groundballs.
The Mets have a lot of LHBs. They likely will start more righties today but those bats are not as good as some of the lefties they have. Suarez’s numbers of course are not as good when facing RHBs but they are still solid. He continues to allow weak contact with a 35.5% hard-hit rate and 54.1% groundball rate. Last year, he started out as a reliever. He made the transition seamlessly to starter. When pitchers make this kind of switch, they could have lower pitch counts than someone who has been a starter for their entire career. It was not a problem for Suarez as he was throwing 90+ pitches regularly. He likely will not throw that many as only a few pitchers have done so to begin the season. Philadelphia is projected to score 5.3 runs off of Taijuan Walker. This puts Suarez in line for the win and those 4DK pts.
Just missed the cut: Huascar Ynoa, Michael Lorenzen, Dylan Bundy
1B Jared Walsh $4700
LAA vs MIA
Walsh has started this season off well. He had an All-Star season last year and looks to be picking off right from where he left off. Walsh should bat clean-up tonight facing off against righty Elieser Hernandez. Hernandez is a promising pitcher but does struggle against lefties. He has allowed a .337 wOBA, .269 ISO, 46.3% flyball rate, and 49.5% hard-hit rate. These are all significantly worse compared to how he fares against RHBs. Hernandez uses a fastball, slider, and changeup. Walsh has a .402 wOBA, .260 ISO, and 45.2% hard-hit rate against the fastball. Against the slider he has a .428 wOBA, .327 ISO, 50% hard-hit rate. He has a .421 wOBA, .328 ISO, 42.9% hard-hit rate against the changeup. Walsh absolutely rakes all the pitches in Hernandez’s repertoire.
The Angels have a stacked top half of the lineup. Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, and Anthony Rendon should be a problem for opposing teams most nights. Walsh should come to the plate with runners on base, giving him more chances to score fantasy points. The weather is not going to be as warm tonight in Anaheim but the winds are blowing out to center at 13mph. Hernandez was diagnosed with a bruised forearm after getting hit during Spring Training. He is healthy enough to start tonight but if he is dealing with any effects from that, it could be a tough start. This MLB slate features a lot of pitchers that are not aces but also are not bad. This is one spot where we can take advantage of Hernandez’s weakness against LHBs. The Angles lead the slate with a 5.3 implied run total.
Just missed the cut: Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Ji-Man Choi, Seth Brown, Luke Voit, J.D. Davis
OF Marcell Ozuna $3800
ATL vs WAS
Anibal Sanchez was originally tabbed to start this game. It will now be Josh Rogers. Atlanta’s run total is at 4.9 but that should increase to account for the pitcher change. Rogers is not expected to be that great of a pitcher. He has a 6.28 xFIP. The southpaw has allowed a .388 wOBA, .286 ISO, 49.4% flyball rate, and 40.5% hard-hit rate to RHBs. In addition, he only strikes out 13.2% and walks 11.3% of righties. This seems like a troubling spot for Rogers. The Braves have some lefty mashers in Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, and Marcell Ozuna. Atlanta can stack their lineup with a lot of right-handed bats tonight.
The 2-time All-Star has a .337 wOBA, and .393 ISO against LHPs. Ozuna does strike out as indicated by his 23.9% K rate. However, Rogers does not strike many batters out. Ozuna holds a 11.1% walk rate vs LHPs. While we want the bats we roster to get hits, Ozuna could draw a walk or two tonight as Rogers does have some control issues when facing righties. Finding value never hurts in MLB. The Braves were priced to face a better pitcher than Rogers. Even at $3800 against Sanchez, Ozuna would have made this article. He is probably $1000 too cheap. Ozuna is hitting 4th and his talent is far better than the other bats priced around him. Atlanta will likely be a popular stack with Ozuna right in the middle of it.
Just missed the cut: Shohei Ohtani, Adam Duvall, Lourdes Gurriel, Alex Kiriloff, Josh Lowe
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