Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 10/01:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Clayton Kershaw
- Lance Lynn
- Sandy Alcantara
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins (-121)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Phillies were eliminated last night as the Braves took down the series to clinch the division. We could see the main bats for PHI take the night off which would vault Alcantara way up the rankings. The game total is extremely low while the Marlins are actually favored. Suarez has been strong for PHI as well so I could see using both guys quite a bit tonight.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Didi Gregorius, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Rojas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against LHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox (-195) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez
Nationals – Josh Rogers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. This is an extremely important series for the Red Sox but it hurts them as they have to go into the NL to finish their season, removing a strong bat from the lineup without the DH. It’s time for E-Rod to step up and harness his talent into a great performance. He has the stuff to be dominant against Washington. The Red Sox bats have struggled with some weak LHPs this weak so there is a path for Rogers to have enough success to be viable.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Kike Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against LHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Lane Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs this season.
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Twins – John Gant
Royals – Jon Heasley
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. I don’t need to see any Vegas numbers to believe that both offenses are very much in play in this game. Gant tends to find ways to escape trouble but he can allow a ton of walks and when HRs happen, they aren’t solo’s. Heasley isn’t a strong prospect or anything so the Twins should continue to have success, especially at the top of the lineup. Can Salvador Perez finish the season strong and get to the 50 HR mark?
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton, Luis Arraez
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Nicky Lopez, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs this season.
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Cincinnati Reds (-172) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Reds – Luis Castillo
Pirates – Wil Crowe
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Reds were disappointed this week but they faced such an uphill battle with STL going on that ridiculous winning streak. We could see some guys rest yet but I do think most of their lineup is “normal”. Castillo has been stronger in the 2nd half and he faces an extremely weak lineup. I like the spot for the Reds bats, as long as we see a strong lineup.
CIN 5-star plays: Jonathan India
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against RHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: Colin Moran
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against RHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox (-260)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Wily Peralta
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I like Lynn’s spot but he hasn’t been overly sharp and I could see the White Sox limiting him to 4-5 innings in preparation for the postseason. Nobody really stands out to me on the Tigers side and Baddoo is about the only one who might be playing for something as he is a darkhorse ROY candidate in the AL. I am not sure what kind of lineup we see from the White Sox but they do need to get guys rolling at the plate.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Akil Baddoo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians (-121) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Indians – Eli Morgan
Rangers – Spencer Howard
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We know that Howard is only going to go a few innings, as he’s been doing for the Rangers since he was acquired. Morgan isn’t anything to write home about as an MLB SP so maybe we can use a mini-stack from the Rangers. I do think we can stack the Indians but they are down the list for me. There will be guys in this game who perform extremely well, but the issue is trying to figure who they will be outside of Ramirez.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Andres Gimenez, Myles Straw
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs this season.
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Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners (-160)
Pitchers:
Angels – Jose Suarez
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Mariners have put themselves in a great spot and can do their part with a sweep of the Angels, at home. It all starts with Gonzales who is certainly capable of putting up a solid performance at what I assume is a cheaper price point. The Mariners bats have been rolling and a few guys have had excellent success against Suarez even though Suarez has looked strong of late. Always consider using Ohtani as a one-off.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: David Fletcher, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against LHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: Kyle Seager, Tom Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against LHPs this season.
Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Cubs – Adbert Alzolay
Cardinals – Dakota Hudson
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. We are still waiting on confirmation from the Cubs but I have seen rumors that Alzolay will return to the rotation for tonight. He has been pitching in relief so he’s not stretched out like he was earlier in the season. Hudson returned from Tommy John and threw 3.2 innings in relief recently. I am not sure what the plans are for him at this point but 75 pitches might not be out of line after he threw 61 in that performance. The Cardinals are a hot team at the plate and if the lineup is a traditional one, I think they are one of my favorites tonight.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Frank Schwindel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill
4-star plays: Harrison Bader, Dylan Carlson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pitchers:
Orioles – Undecided
Blue Jays – Steven Matz
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. A HUGE spot for the Blue Jays as they get to finish at home, against one of the worst teams in all of baseball. They need to sweep this series and that’s going to come down to Matz being strong and the lineup producing as they have for much of the season. Mountcastle has hit Matz extremely well and he’s swinging a strong bat right now so he finds himself as the cover boy. Time for Vlad to show why he’s the MVP and it starts against this weak BAL pitching staff.
BAL 5-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
4-star plays: Pedro Severino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against LHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .200 against RHPs this season.
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Padres – Joe Musgrove?
Giants – Anthony DeSclafani
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. I have seen some talk that Musgrove will start for the Padres but nothing has been officially announced, as far as my knowledge. The Giants need to win 2, I believe, this weekend to take down the division title. The match-up isn’t ideal but I love the way this offense swings it from top to bottom. Unlike SF, SD relies so much on the top part of their lineup to be the consistent ones and we pretty much know where the production will come from if they are a GPP winning stack.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Crawford
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Tommy La Stella
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 against RHPs this season.
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Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Rockies – Jon Gray
D’Backs – Humberto Castellanos
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. This series lacks any kind of excitement for me. A few of the bats in this game have had success against the opposing SP. Gray could be making his last start for Colorado but he’s been better at home, weirdly enough. Story could be playing his last games with the Rockies as well and he did start to heat up this week so maybe we see a big weekend from him as he exits the franchise (I just don’t see him returning).
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun, David Peralta
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs this season.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-203)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. The Dodgers need to win this game and they have a great SP on the mound to do it. As long as Kershaw avoids Garcia and Yelich, who have both hit him extremely well. Lauer has been a surprise this season for the Brewers but he draws an extremely tough match-up as the Dodgers are putting up runs and doing it with power right now.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Avisail Garcia, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against LHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Trea Turner, Max Muncy
4-star plays: AJ Pollock, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 against LHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros
Pitchers:
Athletics – Sean Manaea
Astros – Framber Valdez
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. A few of the Astros bats have hit Manaea really well but we also could see a couple of them take the night off as their last rest day depending on how things go. The A’s are extremely disappointed as their chase was crushed by the Mariners and now they will be spending October on vacation. We could see a weaker OAK lineup but for now, I will assume it’s a normal lineup even though Valdez can certainly be difficult.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Chad Pinder, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against LHPs this season.
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees (-130)
Pitchers:
Rays – Shane McClanahan
Yankees – Nestor Cortes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Yankees absolutely need to take down this series to guarantee themselves a postseason spot. We could see a lot of strikeouts but also a lot of HRs in this game. Both teams have plenty of power against LHPs but they offer some swing and miss stuff as well. I don’t have any interest in either SP at this point in the morning as I will be stacking this game a handful of ways.
TB 5-star plays: Wander Franco, Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Mike Zunino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against LHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs this season.
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves (-153)
Pitchers:
Mets – Tylor Megill
Braves – Huascar Ynoa
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. With the Braves clinching, I could see a watered-down lineup to rest a few guys. I hope a few of the main bats are still in as I think it’s a great spot for them to perform. The Mets have awoken a little bit recently and while I like Ynoa’s stuff, he has blow-up and HR issues. I think mini-stacks are the way to go in this game unless we get a regular ATL lineup.
NYM 5-star plays: Javy Baez
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- San Francisco Giants
- Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB Dinger of the Day – Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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