Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/08:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Yu Darvish
- Triston McKenzie
- Luke Weaver
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Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-111)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Matt Manning
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. A match-up of two SPs who were highly ranked on prospect lists during their minor league days but have really struggled at the MLB level. Each of them gets a plus match-up as both teams struggle at the plate but the issue is trying to figure out which one will do enough. I lean Keller as he has shown some plus stuff at the MLB level, despite his struggles. The issue with that is that the Tigers’ offense is the better of the two.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, Akil Baddoo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against RHPs this season.
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians (-125)
Pitchers:
Twins – Joe Ryan
Indians – Triston McKenzie
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Ryan was decent in his debut and could be in line for a better performance here as the Indians bats have mostly cooled since we went on a stretch stacking them. McKenzie has some impressive upside and while I do worry about some HRs against him, I have to have shares of him in my builds. This is a game that could struggle to see runs scored or we could end up with an 8-6 final score.
MIN 5-star plays: Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Amed Rosario, Myles Straw
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs this season.
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees (-115)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Yankees – Luis Gil
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. We get to see two young SPs battle it out in NY. I was a little shocked to see such a high total with how well both guys have thrown the baseball. I understand that both offenses are extremely dangerous but they are also very temperamental. Gil has impressed me quite a bit and I am really disappointed in the Twins for moving him. I do think that top to bottom, the Jays lineup offers more in this game but they’ve also had more struggles than the Yankees recently.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 against RHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs this season.
Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-153)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Kohei Arihara
D’Backs – Luke Weaver
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Both SPs showed me a bit in their last appearance and they get to face a pretty weak opponent. The big issue for me is that I just don’t know if I can trust both guys to perform. Weaver has always shown ability and he was a big piece of the Goldschmidt trade but he just isn’t able to stay healthy. I can see using some one-offs in this game but just don’t think we need to worry about getting full-stacks built.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, David Peralta
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against RHPs this season.
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Los Angeles Angels @ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Angels – Undecided
Padres – Yu Darvish
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Darvish gets a very plus match-up but he has struggled quite a bit recently. It’s a tough spot to figure out but the Angels could be without Ohtani in the lineup, which would make it even better for Darvish. We do not know who the Angels will run out there but I have seen it viewed as a bullpen game.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jared Walsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs this season.
New York Mets (-115) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Mets – Rich Hill
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This game has an odd start time so it’s not part of every main slate. We get an interesting SP match-up as Hill is in a sold spot while Alcantara has tremendous upside. The Mets bats have awoken a bit recently so they are worth the look but I really like Alcantara’s ability against them. De La Cruz has hit LHPs really well in his short MLB stint and he makes an inviting one-off option.
NYM 5-star plays: Jeff McNeil
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Rojas, Bryan De La Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against LHPs this season.
San Francisco Giants (-145) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Giants – Anthony DeSclafani
Rockies – Jon Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. Jon Gray is expected to come off of the IL to make the start and he’s in a tough spot with how well the Giants have swung the bat this season, especially against Colorado. DeSclafani has dominated this COL team this season and while we do have to worry about it being in Coors, I do believe that he is capable of being in the GPP winning lineup.
SF 5-star plays: Lamonte Wade Jr
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
Chicago White Sox @ Oakland Athletics (-157)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Keuchel has really struggled as we come down the stretch so the A’s line up to be in a great spot against him. Montas has impressive stuff and has upside, even in a difficult match-up. The nice thing for him is that Anderson is on the IL while guys like Abreu and Jimenez have cooled down some.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Starling Marte
4-star plays: Mark Canha, Yan Gomes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs this season.
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Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros (-195)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Tyler Anderson
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We should see Urquidy approach 90 pitches so he becomes viable in his 2nd start off of a lengthy IL stint. The Astros are always in my top 6 or 7 teams for stacking purposes as they have the guys to put up big numbers. They just haven’t all come together at once very often. I do think we see Altuve and Bregman heat up in September.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ty France, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Undecided
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. I have seen two names thrown around for the Dodgers, Mitch White, and Andre Jackson. White was expected to be the long-man last night but never entered the game. I think either guy is very viable for GPP purposes while Wainwright is really intriguing to me. He has really strong numbers at home but we also know that this LAD lineup is as potent as they come in baseball. I want to have plenty of stacks but I won’t be ignoring Wainwright in my MME builds.
LAD 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tyler O’Neill, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .216 over the last week.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers (-160)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Kyle Gibson
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I am very intrigued by this SP match-up but I also could see there being more offense than we expect from this game. Peralta hasn’t looked sharp in dealing with some shoulder and fatigue issues while Gibson hasn’t been able to replicate his 1st half numbers yet. I think both offenses will be overlooked and that could work to our advantage.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, Didi Gregorius
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Daniel Vogelbach
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs this season.
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox (-111)
Pitchers:
Rays – Shane McClanahan
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I love the stuff that McClanahan offers so I need to be intrigued but the match-up isn’t great and he’s a guy that is starting to get to an innings high number so we could see TB start to pull back on him a bit as they have a solid lead in the East. Eovaldi has struggled with a couple of TB bats but he’s done so well to avoid the HR ball this season. I could see either side being the GPP winning stack but I really think mini-stacks are the way to go.
TB 5-star plays: Austin Meadows
4-star plays: Joey Wendle, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 against RHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Hunter Renfroe
4-star plays: Babby Dalbec, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against LHPs this season.
Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Royals – Mike Minor
Orioles – Matt Harvey
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. We should be looking at bats in this game as neither SP really excites me. I say that but full disclosure, my first build on DK has Minor as my SP2 just due to his K ability. I probably end up adjusting that lineup some so fix my SP combination but I also could see myself just saying screw it and riding it out.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Nicky Lopez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
4-star plays: Austin Hays, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
Pitchers:
Nationals – Sean Nolin
Braves – Touki Toussaint
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Toussaint is being floated around as the potential starter and I am all for it, as long as he avoids Juan Soto. I expect the Braves to be fairly popular and for good reason. The big worry I am seeing is the weather in Atlanta at this point in the morning. Soler is going to end up my Dinger of the Day call.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Lane Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against LHPs this season.
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Reds – Vladimir Gutierrez
Cubs – Alec Mills
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Jonathan India
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: Ian Happ
4-star plays: Frank Schwindel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- Cincinnati Reds
- Kansas City Royals
MLB Dinger of the Day – Jorge Soler, Atlanta
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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