Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m mutt18 and I am one of your basketball, football and baseball coaches. We head into the beginning of the week with only 5 games on tap here.
A Look at Pitchers:
Main – On a huge slate today we have a few good options here, as some teams are fighting for a wild card and trying to sneak their way into the playoffs. The top option is likely going to be Gerrit Cole today, even though he has a tougher matchup against the Blue Jays, as that K upside is just unrivaled and he’s been extremely sharp his past few starts. I like the discount we get on Aaron Nola here as well, but his matchup leaves a bit to be desired as well. In the mid-range, Zac Gallen going up against Texas should be a solid lower owned play, as should Jake Odorizzi. For punt options, I’ll have some shares of Jon Gant, and maybe even some Jackson Kowar who is coming off a solid performance against a bad Baltimore offense.
Main Slate
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians
We kick things off here with Jon Gant going up against Aaron Civale and neither of these guys is exactly shutting anyone down, if you’re playing the all day slate you should get some exposure to these two offenses and Gant is intriguing as a punt option if you want to fit in bats. But I’ll have shares of Franmil Reyes against him for sure.
Twins 5 star plays – Donaldson
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler, Garver, Rooker, Sano
GPP note – Donaldson is locked in right now, he’s one of my favorite one offs on the slate
Indians 5 star plays – Reyes
Indians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Reyes, Mercado, Straw, Zimmer
GPP note – They’re hot right now especially in the power department, solid spot as well
Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
This game is also not on the main slate which is nice because it should be a snooze fest as well as the likes of Wily Peralta is going up against an unknown at this point, and with how bad these two offenses are I can say that I’ll be fading them with confidence
Tigers 5 star plays – None
Tigers 4 star plays – Grossman, Schoop, Haase
GPP note – Not a great spot for the Tigers here, likely fade for me
Pirates 5 star plays – None
Pirates 4 star plays – Hayes, Moran, Reynolds
GPP note – Likely gonna be fading here, they’ve just been so bad offensively
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins
This game is also not on the main slate, but we have Carlos Carrasco going up against Edward Cabrera, both of whom have not been sharp, especially Carrasco so we can target both of these offenses here. Pete Alonso is getting locked in at the plate again, as he homered again yesterday and he is going to be a great one-off play if you aren’t stacking especially at his price on FanDuel.
Mets 5 star plays – None
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso, Conforto, Smith, Davis
GPP note – Decent option, but not a team I’ll be stacking heavily
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Aguilar, Brinson, Alfaro
GPP note – Decent hedge stack as they can light it up from time to time, this is a good spot for them as Carrasco has been really bad
Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles
Here we have an interesting game, as Jackson Kowar is coming off a 34 FP performance in his last start against a much tougher opponent than these Orioles, he’s a guy I’ll have some interest in as a punt pitcher in GPPs to pay up for bats, but I will be staying far away from Alexander Wells especially with how locked in Sal Perez is against LHPs.
Royals 5 star plays – Perez
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Alberto, Dozier
GPP note – Decent spot for the RHBs but not one I’m seeking out
Orioles 5 star plays – None
Orioles 4 star plays – Mountcastle, Hays, Mancini, Mullins
GPP note – Solid hedge stack as they can light it up from time to time, but I do like Kowar here
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
Here we have a nice pitching matchup on both sides, as Steven Matz will be going up against Gerrit Cole, and Cole is going to be my top option on this slate as he has been absolutely dominant over his last few starts. Matz is a solid option in GPPs as well, as this Yankees team is not designed to hit LHPs well and he’s been very solid on his own, but the upside doesn’t come near Cole.
Jays 5 star plays – None
Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero, Semien, Dickerson, Gurriel, Grichuk
GPP note – Tougher spot for them today, they’re actually the hedge stack of the day
Yankees 5 star plays – Gallo, Stanton
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge, Voit, Odor
GPP note – Decent spot for their RHBs, but Matz isn’t generally a guy I stack against
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
Here the Sox are fighting for their playoff lives, especially after blowing a huge lead to this Rays team yesterday, both teams should have tired bullpens after this game went extras and 21 runs were scored yesterday. Eduardo Rodriguez will take on Drew Rasmussen and neither guy has been sharp as of late, this is a good game to target bats especially with the warmer weather in Boston today.
Rays 5 star plays – Franco, Arozarena
Rays 4 star plays – Cruz, Wendle, Franco
GPP note – Love Franco, Arozarena, and Cruz today
Sox 5 star plays – Martinez, Devers
Sox 4 star plays – Bogaerts, Verdugo, Renfroe
GPP note – Great offense in a good spot here, will be chalky as well
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
Here we have Paolo Espino going up against Max Fried, and Fried is gonna be a guy I’m targeting here, as this Nationals offense has been anemic against LHPs since they traded away their whole team. Espino is a guy that I will be stacking against as well, as this Braves offense is just too good in this spot and I will be on them heavily.
Nationals 5 star plays – None
Nationals 4 star plays – Bell, Kieboom, Soto
GPP note – Not an offense I’ll be stacking
Braves 5 star plays – Riley, Freeman
Braves 4 star plays – Albies, Duvall, Pederson, Soler
GPP note – Will be targeting the Braves pretty heavily here as it is a great spot.
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
Wade Miley will go up against Adrian Sampson here, and Miley is a guy that I have some interest in even though this Cubs team is white hot right now with the injection of Frank Schwindel into their offense. Still, the only guy they have right now that is decent against LHPs is Patrick Wisdom, so if Miley can navigate him he should cruise in this one as this Cubs magic is bound to wear off very soon.
Reds 5 star plays – Votto
Reds 4 star plays – Moose, Farmer, Aquino, Stephenson, Winker
GPP note – You’ll want the Red LHBs here
Cubs 5 star plays – Wisdom
Cubs 4 star plays – Contreras, Duffy, Bote, Schwindel
GPP note – Not as high on them as some people, as the magic will wear off soon
Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers
Here we have Aaron Nola going up against the soft tossing Eric Lauer, and Nola is gonna be my 2nd favorite SP on the day behind Cole as he comes at a nice discount and this Brewers team K’s a ton to opposing RHPs. The Phillies offense is in a decent spot here as well, especially McCutchen as he is cheap and crushes LHPs
Phillies 5 star plays – McCutchen
Phillies 4 star plays – Segura, Realmuto, Harper, Bohm, Torreyes
GPP note – Could be a good spot for their RHBs, but not a priority stack for me.
Brewers 5 star plays – None
Brewers 4 star plays – Adames, Escobar, Narvaez, Tellez, Yelich
GPP note – Not a great spot for their bats but could be a hedge stack opportunity
Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals
The Dodgers haven’t named a starter as of me writing this, and they’ll be going up against J.A. Happ who seems to have found new life with the Cardinals as he’s actually been pretty solid after getting torn apart basically all year. Either way, you can always stack the Dodger bats as they have one of the best offenses in baseball and I’ll wait and see on the Cardinals as to who will start this game for the Dodgers.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Muncy
Dodgers 4 star plays – Bellinger, Pollock, Turner, Seager, J.Turner
GPP note – Great spot for the Dodger bats again here, stack their RHBs and Muncy as he crushes LHPs
Cardinals 5 star plays – Arenado, Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – O’Neill, Bader, Carlson
GPP note – More of a wait and see approach here, but Goldy and Nado are both hot right now
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
In this game we have a solid pitching matchup, as Logan Gilbert will be going up against Jake Odorizzi, and I like Odorizzi today as this Mariners offense hasn’t been setting the world on fire over the past month. Gilbert has been solid as well but this is a difficult matchup for him, but I don’t think I’ll be stacking against him much either.
Mariners 5 star plays – None
Mariners 4 star plays – France, Seager, Toro, Haniger
GPP note – Decent spot for their LHBs, but not a game I’ll be stacking heavily
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Correa, Diaz, Gurriel, Altuve, Brantley
GPP note – Decent spot, but won’t be stacking them heavily either.
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
Here’s gonna be my favorite game of the day to target, as this Giants offense is sooo good and they’re in Coors facing one of the Rockies worst SPs in Chi Chi Gonzalez. I’ll be stacking the Giants heavily here and I recommend you do the same. Logan Webb has also been lights out over his last 3 starts so he is a nice GPP option as well against a bad Rockies offense.
Giants 5 star plays – Wade Jr., Belt, Crawford
Giants 4 star plays – Posey, Bryant, Yastrzemski
GPP note – Smash spot for the Giants here against a bad SP in Coors
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Story, Cron, Hampson, Rodgers
GPP note – Not a big stack day for me as Webb has been really good
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Chicago White Sox @ Oakland Athletics
Here we have Jimmy Lambert, who has been getting lit up every time with than ERA of 9, going up against Jame Kaprielian who has been really solid but this is a difficult matchup for him against a very good White Sox team. Overall this is a decent game to stack against both SPs but the ballpark in Oakland is a serious downgrade for all of these bats.
White Sox 5 star plays – None
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu, Moncada, Hernandez, Anderson, Grandal
GPP note – Kap has been solid in every start and gets the friendly confines in Oakland with a huge park, won’t be too heavy here
A’s 5 star plays – Marte
A’s 4 star plays – Chapman, Olson, Canha, Murphy
GPP note – Good spot and playing at home, like their LHBs, especially Olson.
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Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Here we have Spenser Howard going up against Zac Gallen, and Gallen is gonna be one of my favorite under the radar SPs here today, as he has been really solid but just never gets an run support, but I think that will change here. Howard is coming off the IL and that is a spot I like to target even with a bad offense like the D-Backs.
Rangers 5 star plays – None
Rangers 4 star plays – Garcia, Lowe, Solak
GPP note – Likely a fade for me here today.
DBacks 5 star plays – none
DBacks 4 star plays – Marte, Varsho, Calhoun
GPP note – Really actually like this spot for them here, as Howard is coming off the IL
Los Angeles Angels @ San Diego Padres
For the night cap, we have Blake Snell going up against Packy Naughton in what should be a pretty big snooze fest here. I do have some interest in Snell, but not at his price on FanDuel as he has shown that he can be blown up and just has not been consistent this year. Overall I think you can target both offenses a bit here and they should be pretty low owned.
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Fletcher, Walsh, Upton
GPP note – Decent play but don’t love them
Padres 5 star plays – Tatis Jr.
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Grisham, Pham, Nola
GPP note – Tough to love them here as the Phillies bullpen behind Suarez is pretty solid
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Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- San Francisco Giants – What’s not to like here? They’re going up against a bad RHP in Coors and they’ve been dominating the Rockies this whole series who also have a tired bullpen, great spot for them here but they will be chalky.
- Tampa Bay Rays – E-Rod hasn’t been great this season and the Rays always seem to get to him and this Sox pen is tired after going extras yesterday and giving up 11 runs, I really like Cruz especially here.
- Kansas City Royals – Facing another really bad LHP and Sal Perez is gonna be my dong call of the day as the dude just annihalates LHPs and he’s catching up to Ohtani in the HR race.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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