Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We head into the end of the weekend with an 11-game main slate, as well as 4 late/afternoon matchups. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We have some fun options today, ranging from gas cans to studs, so that’s always a good way to start the week. For the main slate, Woodruff looks to be a good cash option at first glance (maybe Gray, too?). For GPP, we have some other options with upside, like good ‘ol Chris Sale. Skubal has some strikeout upside too, but he can also get hit around if he’s not careful.
For the later slates, I feel like it’s going to be Scherzer or McCullers, but don’t overlook Freeland for tournament purposes. Barria isn’t throwing too well, so even if he’s facing the Rangers, I don’t know that he’ll be “the guy” on this one. As always, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to get an idea of where they’re looking!
Main slate
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
We’ll kick things off with the Mets and Nationals, with Corbin and Williams at the helm. Neither pitcher really stands out, though Corbin’s struggles could be a good place to attack (he’s giving up much more in traditional splits matchups).
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Nimmo, Alonso
GPP note – Pretty rough matchup for the righties here, though Corbin has been pretty soft to lefties, giving up .431 wOBA / .403 to them in August.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto, Bell
GPP note – Not a great matchup here either, so I’m not sure I’d go too deep after Soto/Bell.
Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles
Up next is our Camden Yards game, with two teams in about the same scenario here; both have some bats that are hitting well enough, and are going up against soft starters & bullpens at a really good hitter’s ballpark. I think we might have a winner here, so don’t overlook this game.
Royals 5 star plays – Perez
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Santana, Benintendi/Lopez
GPP note – Overall these guys are hitting lefties pretty well, and they get a huge ballpark upgrade here, so this would be a good place to grab some stacks.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Mullins, Mountcastle, Mateo
GPP note – Bubic has been pretty soft to righties, and there are plenty of them here. Game stacking isn’t out of the question here.
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Up next are the Blue Jays and Yankees, two teams we would be more apt to think about when we want some offensive fireworks. However, both teams will be facing decent pitching, so we might have to temper our expectations just a tad here. Both do allow some power though, so I don’t expect a 1-0 score or anything, just not double digits all around.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays -Semien, Guerrero
GPP note – Not a great matchup here, but Taillon does allow some power (slightly more to righties).
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge/Stanton, Voit
GPP note – Not the best matchup here either, but Ryu does allow a decent amount of power (.172 ISO) to lefties. A few small/medium stacks from these two teams would be fine, but I don’t know about large stacks.
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
The Rays and Red Sox are up next, and I always get excited to watch Chris Sale pitch. He’ll have a tough matchup here, as he only got 3 strikeouts against these guys last week, but we know any given start, he’s got 10+ strikeout upside.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe, Cruz, Franco, Arozarena
GPP note – Tough matchup against Sale, but these guys are coming in hitting lefties well. This would be a good place to hedge.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Martinez, Devers, Schwarber, Renfroe/Vazquez
GPP note – Decent spot for the righties here, and Yarbrough’s strikeout rate is pretty low lately (about 12.5%), so they’ll have a good chance to make some things happen.
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Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Up next are a couple of not-so-exciting teams, but like yesterday, I don’t mind the Pirates here. They’ll face Skubal, who has been very soft to righties, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see their streakiness continue here. As for the Tigers…meh. Not a great spot and they’re not coming in scorching hot or anything.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Schoop, Baddoo, Castro
GPP note – Reverse splits are in play here; Wilson is allowing .349 wOBA / .240 ISO to righties.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Tsutugo, Stallings
GPP note – I liked ’em yesterday and I like ’em again here. I think they can do some damage against Skubal, though he does have strikeout upside, so perhaps a few hedges couldn’t hurt.
Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers
The Phillies and Brewers are up next, with what might be our main cash pitcher of the slate, Woodruff. He’ll face Wheeler, who isn’t actually too far behind, so I think this game will see the under thanks to some solid pitching. Both are firmly in play as tournament options, if you aren’t taking either for cash games.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Herrera
GPP note – Difficult matchup against Woodruff, though there are a few bats worth a look. Don’t expect big stacks to come through, but small exposure wouldn’t be bad.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Garcia, Peterson/Wong/Cain
GPP note – Mostly the same for these guys too. On paper, almost an identical matchup, so stick to small/medium stacks.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
We’ll wrap up the main slate with the Reds and Cubs, with Steele and Gray getting the start. This looks to be a better matchup for the Reds, so I’d focus my efforts there, but I guess you never know what the Cubbies might pull off at Wrigley.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto, India/Castellanos
GPP note – Big traditional splits here against Steele, with him allowing .409 wOBA / .310 ISO to righties. Would be a good spot for them to bounce back from yesterday’s loss.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ, Wisdom
GPP note -Not a good matchup against Gray, though he does allow more power to righties than lefties. A couple of RvR pivots couldn’t hurt.
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Late slates
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
Next up are the Giants and Rockies, facing off at everyone’s favorite ballpark, Coors Field. After fending off the Dodgers last night, the Giants and Gausman will look to keep the wins coming against Freeland, but we’ll see how things go for them. I think they had the entire bullpen pitch last night, so Gausman will really have to put in some work here.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt/Crawford, Yastrzemski
GPP note – Freeland is no pushover, and it’s always a play to fade a team heading into Coors on their first game. They might be a little underwhelming here, but will still be popular due to them being in Denver.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Cron, Story, Blackmon
GPP note – Not a great matchup, but this bullpen is taxed. If they can get to Gausman early, they might be able to put up some big numbers here, though it won’t be sneaky at all to stack a Coors team.
Los Angeles Dodgers at St Louis Cardinals
We get Mad Max and the Dodgers next, who will be traveling to play Mikolas and the Cardinals. I think we all expect Max to do his thing here and dominate the game, so he’s bound to be popular. Mikolas can be good at times, so I don’t know that the Dodgers will go bonkers here or anything, but they certainly have the advantage.
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Turner/Turner, Seager, Betts
GPP note – These guys aren’t crushing righties, and they probably won’t need to do a whole lot to secure a win with Max on the mound, so they might not be the best pivot to Coors. Alas, traditional splits are the way to go here.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado, Edman
GPP note – When these guys dud, they dud hard. That’s not good when you’re facing Max, who can shut down an entire team. I’m all about contrarian stacks, but I’m not sure how much potency they really have here.
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
We get the Twins and Indians up next, another game that probably won’t look as sexy on paper as the Coors game…at least not for the offenses. Both teams will face some decent pitching here, with just a handful of bats that are running warm/hot, so grab what you can but don’t expect full stacks to win the day so easily.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Polanco, Donaldson, Sano/Kepler
GPP note – Allen has been pretty strict and has a decent strikeout rate, so again, I don’t know that these guys will be the alternative to Coors. Maybe some smaller secondary stacks?
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Reyes, Mercado
GPP note – Once again, basically the same scenario here as the other team. Ober does allow some power to righties though, at .198 ISO.
Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
We get McCullers and the Astros hosting Kikuchi and the Mariners next, and this one looks pretty good for the home team. McCullers gets to face a fairly soft offense, and the Astros get to face a fairly soft (at least to righties) pitcher, so these guys could help take some ownership off of the Coors game.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Haniger/Seager
GPP note -Bad matchup against McCullers, but I’d give them a little bit better chance of doing something than say, the Cardinals.
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez, Correa, Altuve
GPP note – Good traditional splits against Kikuchi, so righties are in the better spot, but don’t forget about Alvarez who can thwack just about anything sent his way (he has the best numbers against lefties on the team right now).
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll wrap up the day with the Rangers and Angels for our evening showdown, with Barria and Alexy having the start. Barria carries a rough carnage rating, so that’ll give some hope to the Rangers. We’ve only seen Alexy once, so there’s no telling how this next start could go, and he’ll face a little bit tougher offense this time around.
Rangers 5 star plays -none
Rangers 4 star plays -Kiner-Falefa/Solak/Lowe/Garcia
GPP note – Barria has equal numbers against both hands, around the .377 xwOBA / .235 ISO mark to both. The Rangers aren’t a hot hitting squad, but they’ll be in a spot to do something here, so don’t be afraid to test your luck with any portion of the lineup.
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Walsh, Stassi/Fletcher
GPP note – Alexy looked good in his debut against the Rockies, though it’s too early to tell how he’ll be. Perhaps some hedging would be in play here?
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Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Cincinnati Reds – They dropped a pretty good sized dud yesterday, but they’ll be in a good spot to bounce back here. Some people will just fade them out of spite, but you could go back to the well here and collect their money, should the Reds get their act together here.
- Kansas City Royals – No, I’m not being a KC nerd here! They’re in a legitimately good spot against some soft pitching and don’t have to hit within the confines of the K, and even with that, they’ve had good numbers lately. I think they can do some damage here.
- Baltimore Orioles – Same as the Royals; they’ll be facing some softer pitching and have decent numbers coming in, so I think we could see a good chunk of scoring from both sides of this one.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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