Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We head into the end of the weekend with an 11-game main slate, as well as 4 late/afternoon matchups. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get a pretty wide range of pitching options today; some with big strikeout upside, some giving up a lot of power, some much less. Guys like Cease, Burnes, and Castillo might be strong cash game options, while we have some guys like Ray and Kluber that do have some question marks, but certainly have big upside if things go their way.
We also have plenty of targets to pick on, such as Mize, Jax, and Hernandez. All in all, there are a lot of interesting paths to take on this 10-game slate, so, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to get an idea of where they’re looking.
For the afternoon slate, it’s a similar story, just a lot fewer options to choose from. Morton and Garcia are always worth a look, even if one of them will be pitching in Denver. Paddack certainly has upside when he’s on, but facing the Astros will be no easy task. For the showdown, Buehler is coming in with outstanding numbers, and he’ll need to really carry his weight to try and grab a win against the Giants. All in all, it should be a fun day for MLB DFS!
Main slate
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
We’ll kick things off with the Orioles and Yankees, with Akin and Kluber on the mound. It’s only Kluber’s second start back, so it’s hard to know exactly where he is, but we know what kind of upside he has in him. This might be a good place to hedge, just in case he’s a little rusty.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Mullins, Mountcastle, Mateo
GPP note – Not exactly a great matchup going against Kluber, but a few of these guys are hitting righties well right now, so you could sprinkle them around as a contrarian stack.
Yankees 5 star plays – Judge/Stanton
Yankees 4 star plays – Voit
GPP note – Akin allows plenty of power to both sides, and these guys like to hit for power. Don’t be afraid of RvR matchups here.
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
Next up are the Mets and Nationals, with two pitchers who had some reverse splits issues in August (see notes below). I don’t think those kind of bats will be overly popular, so this could be a good place to grab a few lower-owned bats with some decent upside.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Conforto, Lindor
GPP note – Reverse splits – Gray is allowing .370 wOBA / .316 ISO to righties (.313 / .179 to lefties).
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto, Bell
GPP note – More reverse splits – Walker is allowing .351 wOBA / .270 ISO to righties (.250 / .193 to lefties).
Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays
The Athletics and Blue Jays are up next, and the Blue Jays look to have the upper hand here. They’ll have Ray pitching, who has been pretty strict and has a solid strikeout rate (around 33% over his last 5 starts), and the Oakland bats overall aren’t blazing hot. They’ll also get to face Irvin, who has soft traditional splits and has a super low 7.6% strikeout rate over his last handful of start.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Chapman, Harrison
GPP note – Tough matchup against Ray, so I don’t see big stacks paying off. Maybe a few one-offs or mini-stacks?
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Semien, Dickerson
GPP note – Irvin is allowing .380 xwOBA / .177 ISO to lefties, so traditional splits stacks are the better option here. He’s also not really striking anybody out.
Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays
We have the Twins and Rays next, with Patino and Jax squaring off. Both of these pitchers are allowing a fair amount of contact and power (especially Jax), so this game should hopefully be a good source of some offensive firepower.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Donaldson, Polanco, Kepler, Gordon
GPP note -Patino allows power to both sides, but more to lefties (.231 ISO RvL, .167 ISO RvR). Good spot for any size stacks.
Rays 5 star plays –
Rays 4 star plays –
GPP note – Jax splits: .445 xwOBA / .353 ISO to lefties, .358 xwOBA / .274 ISO to lefties. Both sides are in a good spot to feast here.
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
The Phillies and Marlins are up next, with what looks to be Hernandez going against the Philadelphia bullpen to start things off. There are a few Miami bats that are running well, but I think the Phillies will have the upper hand here overall.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Herrera, Realmuto
GPP note – Good traditional splits against Hernandez; .378 xwOBA / .393 ISO. Similar wOBA to righties, with about half the ISO.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Rojas, Aguilar
GPP note – Looks to be a bullpen game here, and these guys aren’t the most exciting as it is, so I don’t know that big stacks will be the answer. Some smaller/medium sized stacks could be useful, though.
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Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox
We head back north to Boston for the Indians and Red Sox, with Pivetta and Plesac getting the start. At first glance the pitchers are fairly well matched, but Plesac does trail behind a little. Boston bats are bound to be more popular, so you could look to Cleveland for lower-owned stacks, but I think they do have a lower overall ceiling.
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Reyes, Ramirez
GPP note – Not a great matchup against Pivetta, but he does allow some power (to both sides) here and there. Some smaller secondary stacks might be okay.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Schwarber
Red Sox 4 star plays – Martinez, Devers, Renfroe
GPP note – Similar matchup for these guys, but Plesac has been a little softer to both sides (he does give up more power to righties, however). These bats will probably have more upside, so stack accordingly.
Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds
We head to mini-Coors next, a place that’s always worth a look for the bats at play. Detroit looks to be a bit underwhelming, as they don’t get a great matchup, but this looks to be another spot for the Reds to do some damage.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Castro, Baddoo
GPP note – These bats are fairly calm against righties, but Castillo does allow .194 / .244 ISO to righties/lefties, and this is always a good hitter’s park, so don’t be afraid to grab some one-offs or small stacks.
Reds 5 star plays – Votto
Reds 4 star plays – Naquin, India, Castellanos
GPP note – Mize allows a ton of power to righties (.386 ISO), but also a fair amount to lefties (.178). These guys are bound to get some good hits here, so stack away.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
We head to, well..basically the opposite kind of field here. The White Sox and Royals will face off at the K, a ballpark that doesn’t excite the offenses as much as it does the pitchers.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu, Robert, Jimenez/Moncada
GPP note – Singer is allowing a lot of xwOBA (to both sides), but not a lot of wOBA / ISO. That tells me he could be ready to get blown up at any moment, so be sure to grab a few large stacks here just in case.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Perez, Merrifield, Lopez
GPP note – Bad matchup here against Cease. He does allow a little bit of power here and there, but not much. Large stacks are out of the question for me.
St Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
Up next are the Cardinals and Brewers, with another tough pitcher (Burnes) getting the start against Lester, who is coming off a decent outing against the Reds. I’m not sure he’ll replicate that performance, but you could always grab a few shares just in case. My money will be on Burnes.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado, Edman
GPP note – Bad matchup for the Cards, so like KC, I don’t really like big stacks here. I see them going the under.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Garcia
GPP note – Lester isn’t allowing a ton of power, and these guys aren’t smashing lefties. I don’t know that we’ll see Lester put up 40+ FD for $6k again, but these guys could be underwhelming.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
We’ll cap off the main slate with the Pirates and Cubs, with Davies and Crowe coming in with fairly similar numbers across the board. The advantage goes to the Cubs’ bats, as the Pirates are running pretty cold. However, since both pitchers are pretty soft, that means both offenses will get a decent chance to do something.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds
GPP note – Davies allows a lot of contact and power, though he does get some strikeouts. These bats are pretty cold, so I think it could be a decent spot to get a few lower-owned hedge lineups going.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ, Wisdom, Ortega
GPP note – Pretty similar story here, but the Cubbies are hitting better. I think any kind of stacks are in play here (traditional splits look to be in the better spot, with almost double the ISO given up to them).
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Late slates
Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies
We switch over to the afternoon slate, starting with our Coors game with the Braves and Rockies. You know the drill by now, play the guys at Coors, but since it’s a smaller slate, you’ll need to find some other ways to get a little creative in lineup construction. Perhaps hedge Morton and some Colorado righties?
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Freeman, Riley, Soler, Pederson
GPP note – It’s Coors, it’s the Braves, it’s the Rockies bullpen. They’re probably going to score some more runs, so you don’t need me to tell you to stack them.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Cron, Story, Joe, Rogers, Blackmon
GPP note – Not the best matchup against Morton, though he does allow a good chunk of power to righties. Might be worth looking at some RvR matchups here.
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
The Rangers and Angels are up next, with what looks to be a guy named Junk going up against Hearn. The home team looks to be at the advantage here, that is unless Junk has some debut jitters and lets the Rangers walk all over him.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays -Kiner-Falefa, Solak
GPP note – It’s hard to get excited about these guys, but if are in fact facing a debuting pitcher, it’s never a bad idea to stack just in case.
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Walsh, Iglesias/Lagres
GPP note – Reverse splits: Hearn is allowing .399 wOBA / .324 ISO to lefties, and not very much to righties.
Houston Astros at San Diego Padres
We head out west for the Astros and Padres, with two solid pitchers going up against two potent offenses. This could be a good spot to grab some pieces to go with chalky Coors lineups.
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve, Correa, Alvarez
GPP note – Not the best matchup against Paddack, but he does have his weak moments. For the most part I’d probably go with smaller stacks, but a few large ones couldn’t hurt just in case he has a really bad game.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Tatis, Machado, Cronework/Myers
GPP note – Not a great matchup for these guys either, but since all four parts of this game shows upside, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to hedge here. Traditional splits give the most power upside.
Seattle Mariners at Arizona Diamondbacks
We round out the afternoon slate with the Mariners and Diamondbacks, two of our least-favorite teams to stack. Both teams will face some decent pitching, so that makes us love them even less. But hey, maybe the pitchers could rack up some fantasy points?
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays -Haniger, Torrens
GPP note – Not a ton to love here, but Gilbert does allow some power (.197 ISO) to lefties.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Walker, Varsho, Rojas
GPP note – A little better spot for the righties here (.396 xwOBA / .163 ISO), but nothing super juicy. Some of these guys are hitting for some decent power against righties though, so they might be worth a look.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
We head to our showdown game with the Dodgers and Giants, two teams who want/need wins against one another. That always makes me think we could have a fun pitcher’s duel, but seeing that the Giants might be going for a bullpen game here, I guess we won’t get one. Buehler will be ready to represent for the Dodgers though, so look for him to give it his best here.
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Betts, Turner/Muncy/Turner
GPP note – Might be a bullpen game, but we’ll know more as we get word on that. In the meantime, the usual suspects are in play here…which is basically this entire lineup.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt/Crawford, Ruf
GPP note – Tough matchup against Buehler, but they need to secure a win against these guys. He has no glaring weakness right now, so definitely check out those coach’s notes to see how to approach this showdown!
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Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Cincinnati Reds – Great ballpark to hit in, lots of strong bats, and a pitcher that allows a ton in traditional splits matchups. Need I say more?
- Toronto Blue Jays – Irvin allows a fair amount to both sides, but I really like attacking guys with such low strikeout rates. 7.6% means they should get plenty of contact here, and when these guys hit the ball, it tends to go pretty far.
- New York Yankees – Akin allows plenty of power to both sides, and these guys like to hit for power. Could see a few jacks here, so grab some shares.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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