Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/04:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Marcus Stroman
- Tyler Mahle
- Tanner Houck
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Detroit Tigers @ Cincinnati Reds (-203)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Matthew Boyd
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We know that offenses get a boost in this ballpark so that’s probably where we want to focus in this game. Mahle has upside and is a better pitcher than Gutierrez, who struggled yesterday. The Reds are weaker against LHPs but they still can perform and a few of the Reds have a solid history against Boyd.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against LHPs this season.
Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays (-210)
Pitchers:
Twins – Andrew Albers
Rays – Chris Archer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Albers has been a surprise despite not really racking up big K numbers. We know that TB can struggle against LHPs, as their main lineup features plenty of LHBs. Archer probably goes just about 70 pitches, which is fine for me as he is capable of doing plenty and I think he is more effective in shorter outings at this point. The Twins have some power but I think they end up struggling in this one.
MIN 5-star plays: Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: Wander Franco
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Mike Zunino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against LHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics @ Toronto Blue Jays (-160)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Paul Blackburn
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Both offenses exploded yesterday, which probably means the Blue Jays aren’t low-owned again. Berrios is one of the best GPP plays, nearly every time he takes the mound. He has volatility but when he puts it together, he racks up Ks in a hurry and can be a big piece of a GPP winning lineup.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Harrison, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 against RHPs this season.
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels (-160)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Kolby Allard
Angels – Jose Suarez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. This is a game that I am not sure how to attack at this point in the morning. I don’t really want to rely on either SP but I also don’t want to build lineups around either offense. Allard has given up 2 HRs in each of his last 4 starts. Suarez hasn’t given up many HRs but his longest outing is just 5.2 innings while he doesn’t offer much K upside above 4-5. I think you can use one-offs but I would actually prefer to use TEX one-offs. Mayfield does have an HR against Allard.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against LHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Justin Upton, Jack Mayfield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against LHPs this season.
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Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres (-115)
Pitchers:
Astros – Framber Valdez
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I absolutely love this SP match-up as Musgrove has been great at home while Valdez always intrigues me because of his ability to go deep while getting a ton of groundball outs. I don’t think we need to stack up against either SP but taking a couple of one-offs or going with mini-stacks could be a GPP winning combination. We know that SD struggles against LHPs but Tatis-Machado-Pham could be a trio that does a ton of good things.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against LHPs this season.
New York Mets (-160) @ Washington Nationals – Game 1
Pitchers:
Mets – Marcus Stroman
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. I really like the Mets side with their BvP against Fedde but we HAVE to remember that this is a 7-inning contest and that takes an AB away from our guys. For that reason, we have to view the bats as GPP plays only. If you have read my content over the last year and a half or so, you will know that I LOVE taking pitchers in these 7-inning games on DK. The shortened game brings the CG bonus into play so much more at this point. Stroman is going to find himself at the top of some of my early SP rankings because of that.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil
4-star plays: Javy Baez, Michael Conforto, Jonathan Villar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Lane Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against RHPs this season.
New York Mets (-145) @ Washington Nationals – Game 2
Pitchers:
Mets – Tylor Megill
Nationals – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Remember that this game is a 7-inning contest.
NYM 5-star plays: Jonathan Villar
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against LHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against RHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves (-111) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Braves – Ian Anderson
Rockies – German Marquez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. We saw Friday’s game come back to earth and turn more into a pitcher’s duel so who knows what is going to happen today! Marquez has been strong at home but he has struggled on the road recently and I wonder if those struggles mess with him a bit against an elite offense. Anderson has big-time stuff but he’s making his first Coors appearance. I want to use RH power against him when I stack the Rockies.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
Chicago White Sox (-153) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
White Sox – Reynaldo Lopez
Royals – Daniel Lynch
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I think the offenses are the play in this game despite the upside that both SPs offer us. I love how the White Sox perform against LHPs while the Royals have a bunch of guys with strong BvP history against Lopez. Lopez has been really strong at the MLB level this season so he is worth a couple of shares in your MME, especially at his DK price point.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Andrew Vaughn, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against LHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Ryan O’Hearn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs this season.
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Seattle Mariners @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
D’Backs – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ty France, Jarred Kelenic
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Nick Ahmed
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against LHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Giants – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
LAD 5-star plays: Will Smith, Max Muncy
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Belt
4-star plays: Buster Posey, Austin Slater
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against LHPs this season.
St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers (-135)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Kwang-Hyun Kim
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We saw the Cardinals explode against Peralta and the Brewers staff last night but I don’t know that it happens again. I love the way Goldschmidt and Arenado look at the plate right now so maybe some mini-stacks work again tonight. Milwaukee should wake up a little bit but they haven’t had much success against Kim, in a limited sample.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lorenzo Cain, Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against LHPs this season.
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Cleveland Indians @ Boston Red Sox (-195)
Pitchers:
Indians – Eli Morgan
Red Sox – Tanner Houck
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I am always drawn to Houck as his K rate is massive but he just doesn’t go deep. He racks up pitches as he nibbles and tries to throw the perfect 2-strike pitch despite having nasty stuff. At some point, it’s going to come together for him and he’s going to fire 7 shutout innings with 10+ Ks. The Red Sox are dealing with some COVID issues but the lineup has enough danger in it that Morgan shouldn’t be in our pool.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Bobby Bradley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs this season.
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees (-310)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Chris Ellis
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. If you go ONLY by Vegas numbers, then the Yankees are going to be your top stack on the slate that they play. I was shocked to see Montgomery as such a strong favorite as the Orioles can hit LHPs decently well. I can see making multiple game stacks of this one in hopes of hitting the right combination, but I can also see you want to fade it for leverage.
BAL 5-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
4-star plays: Austin Hays, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against LHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs this season.
Philadelphia Phillies (-115) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This game isn’t on any of the main slates for DK today so that’s frustrating. I think both SPs are very much in play while the game also offers a couple of one-off plays that could be difference-makers. I always love Trevor Rogers but he’s been away for over a month and that could lead to some rust. On the other hand, it could lead to some electric stuff and big K numbers.
PHI 5-star plays: Andrew McCutchen
4-star plays: Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against LHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jazz Chisholm Jr, Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against LHPs this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Pirates – Miguel Yajure
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: Frank Schwindel
4-star plays: Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Chicago White Sox
- Atlanta Braves
- Colorado Rockies
MLB Dinger of the Day – Jose Abreu, White Sox
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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