Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/03:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Vladimir Gutierrez
- Shohei Ohtani
- Kyle Gibson
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Detroit Tigers @ Cincinnati Reds (-177)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Tyler Alexander
Reds – Vladimir Gutierrez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Gutierrez is going to find his way near the top of my PT/$ rankings for SPs as I like the match-up, at home, with his K upside and the potential for the Tigers to be without Schoop or Cabrera. I am seeing some talk that Alexander is going to just open with Urena to follow as the long man. I think that scenario benefits the Reds quite a bit so I am going to be sliding them into my top 5 stacks.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Akil Baddoo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Jonathan India, Delino DeShields Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against LHPs this season.
Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays (-190)
Pitchers:
Twins – Randy Dobnak
Rays – Michael Wacha
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. My guess is that this game plays to the over and probably ends up at like 11 or 12 runs. I just don’t think either SP is going to do enough to limit the damage. The Rays are obviously the stronger team but the Twins do have some guys who have been contributing quite a bit offensively lately, especially Donaldson. Franco might not play but if he’s in the lineup, he’s going to be one of my favorite SS’s.
MIN 5-star plays: Josh Donaldson
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Max Kepler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: Wander Franco
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Joey Wendle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against RHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics @ Toronto Blue Jays (-140)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Sean Manaea
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Manaea has had some struggles in the second half and that’s tough when coming into this match-up. The issue here is that the Blue Jays haven’t exactly erupted over the last few weeks. I still want to give them the advantage with all of their power against Manaea. The A’s are a team that can erupt with a bunch of HRs but they can also struggle a bit so I think Manoah is extremely interesting as a GPP option.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Harrison, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against LHPs this season.
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels (-213)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Glenn Otto
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I really love this match-up from a pitching standpoint. We know how good Ohtani has been and now he gets a weak lineup, at home. Otto looked really good in his debut after putting up very solid numbers in the minors throughout the season. I am not very interested in many bats in this game, especially with Ohtani being used as a P so we can’t get his hitting stats.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Nathaniel Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jared Walsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
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Houston Astros (-140) @ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Padres – Jake Arrieta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Arrieta is coming off of the IL to face a team that can do a ton of damage to him. For his sake, I am glad this game is in SD and not in HOU. Jose Urquidy is capable of doing enough to limit a team but I think the Padres can also do a little damage, especially at the top of their order. Two of my favorite one-offs are in this game, Alvarez and Tatis Jr.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr
4-star plays: Trent Grisham, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
New York Mets (-145) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Mets – Rich Hill
Nationals – Sean Nolin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I believe we could see a couple of bats from this game in winning lineups tonight. A few of the Mets guys have had success against Nolin while Villar is hot at the plate. Zimmerman has smashed Rich Hill and I am going to make the surprising decision to make him my Dinger of the Day call. We know how elite Juan Soto is and the LvL match-up doesn’t worry me at all.
NYM 5-star plays: Jonathan Villar
4-star plays: JD Davis, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against LHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: Ryan Zimmerman
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Alcides Escobar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against RHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves (-140) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Braves – Huascar Ynoa
Rockies – Anthony Senzatela
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12. Coors field, game 2, should see some more offense and probably from both sides again. I love Ynoa’s ability but the HR ball at inopportune times seems to be his downfall. Senzatela is in a rough spot against the power of the Braves so I expect ATL to be extremely popular, even on a 14 game slate.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Eddie Rosario
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Royals – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .289 over the last week (6 games).
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against LHPs this season.
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Seattle Mariners @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Mariners – Tyler Anderson
D’Backs – Madison Bumgarner
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. We get to see two LHPs battle with similar pitching styles. Once again, I am in love with Ketel Marte and he’s had success against Anderson in his career. If it wasn’t for Ryan Zimmerman, Marte would be my Dinger of the Day selection. I do think that Bumgarner could be sneaky despite some of his recent so-so games. The Mariners are a tougher lineup but they haven’t been pounding the baseball of late.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ty France, Luis Torrens
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against LHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Nick Ahmed, Daulton Varsho
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against LHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Dodgers – David Price
Giants – Anthony DeSclafani
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. I love this series and it’s going to carry some postseason feels. DeSclafani has had a great season to this point, minus his starts against the Dodgers. He has made 5 starts against the Dodgers in 2021 and allowed 22 runs in 21 innings on 31 hits (6 HRs). His WHIP against them is over 2, at 2.05. Price is in a pretty tough spot as well thanks to the power of the Giants lineup.
LAD 5-star plays: Will Smith, Max Muncy
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Corey Seager, AJ Pollock
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against LHPs this season.
St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers (-180)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This is an under-the-radar match-up as the Cardinals try to find a way to sneak back into the playoff discussion. I noticed that Wainwright is the most expensive SP on DK and that probably takes him out of the equation for me as I would consider him if he were at home. He has allowed just 3 runs in 11 against MIL this season but the Brewers are hitting over .300 against him. Peralta hasn’t thrown in about 2 weeks and they may be cautious in his first start back but if we hear that he isn’t going to be hard-capped, he makes a strong GPP option.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Kolten Wong
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs this season.
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Cleveland Indians @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Indians – Cal Quantrill
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against RHPs this season.
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees (-245)
Pitchers:
Orioles – John Means
Yankees – Nestor Cortes Jr
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We could see plenty of offense in NY tonight as the Yankees have guys that can either mash LHPs or have hit Means hard in their careers. The Orioles have a few guys who are swinging the bat extremely well over the last week or two. If you wanted a lower owned game (lower than the Coors game) to stack and hope for a shootout, this might be it.
BAL 5-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
4-star plays: Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against LHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Luke Voit
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs this season.
Philadelphia Phillies (-140) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Phillies – Kyle Gibson
Marlins – Jesus Luzardo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I am really interested in the pitching in this game as Gibson draws a pretty sweet match-up while Luzardo showed us why he was such a big-time SP prospect in his last start. I have seen some talk that it could be Trevor Rogers for the Marlins and he would make sense for GPPs as well. The Phillies have started to heat up so I will want at least 1 stack of them in my builds.
PHI 5-star plays: Andrew McCutchen
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Jean Segura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against LHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jazz Chisholm Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Pirates – Steven Brault
Cubs – Alec Mills
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
PIT 5-star plays: Colin Moran
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: Patrick Wisdom
4-star plays: Frank Schwindel, Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- Houston Astros
- Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB Dinger of the Day – Ryan Zimmerman, Washington
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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