Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m mutt18 and I am one of your basketball, football and baseball coaches. We head into the beginning of the week with only 5 games on tap here. Just want to take a minute and say #NeverForget, as we honor the victims of 9/11 on this 20 year anniversary.
A Look at Pitchers:
Early – Pitching is really ugly if you’re playing the early slate, I’d go with J.A. Happ and then Justin Steele in that order, but you should just pay up for bats if you’re playing the early games.
Main – For the main, your main guy is gonna be Robbie Ray who is likely to win the Cy Young but its a tougher matchup against the Yankees, followed by Lance McCullers, but neither boost a ton of confidence and Bieber isn’t playable as he’ll be limited again. Ian Anderson and Kyle Gibson are also interesting but have tough matchups, and Rich Hill and Nick Pivetta have plus matchups and are both pretty cheap as well.
Early Slate
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals
Here we have Brett Anderson going up against J.A. Happ here in what will be a battle of the two lefties who can’t hit 90 MPH. The Cardinals are in a great spot here as they crush LHPs and the offense has been heating right up to end the season (especially Goldschmidt), I expect a good amount of runs to be scored here so I like both offenses if you’re playing the early slate.
Brewers 5 star plays – None
Brewers 4 star plays – Adames, Escobar, Pina, Yelich, Taylor
GPP note – Load up on RHBs here, but I prefer the STL offense
Cardinals 5 star plays – Arenado, Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – O’Neill, Bader, Carlson, Edman
GPP note – Cardinals have been crushing LHPs and they don’t break the bank today.
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers
In this game we have Alex Cobb going up against Glen Otto, both of whom have been really bad this season so I’ll be targeting both offenses here, especially the Angels as Otto has an ERA of over 8 in his 3 starts this year, load up on the Angles with confidence in this one.
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Fletcher, Walsh, Upton, Mayfield, Gosselin
GPP note – Really like their bats here, should be a high scoring game
Rangers 5 star plays – None
Rangers 4 star plays – Garcia, Lowe, Solak, Kiner-Falefa
GPP note – Both sides should hit here, they’ll be lower owned than the Angels
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates haven’t named a SP here yet, but either way they don’t have anyone that is going to shut down this Cubs offense, especially with how well they’ve been hitting the past month. Justin Steele is on the other side against the Pirates, and while he isn’t very good himself he has a solid shot here as the Pirates offense is just flat out bad.
Cubs 5 star plays – Schwindel, Wisdom
Cubs 4 star plays – Ortega, Contreras, Happ
GPP note – Like their bats here big time no matter who the Pirates throw out there.
Pirates 5 star plays – None
Pirates 4 star plays – Hayes, Reynolds, Tsutsugo
GPP note – Not big on them, more of a hedge stack if anything
Main Slate
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
Here we have Nick Pivetta going up Alexander Wells and its gonna be the same story as it has been for the first few games of this series, the Sox should roll here as the O’s throw out another sub par lefty and I really like Pivetta here at that 6.8K price on FanDuel for value. You’re going to want the Sox big RHBs here but they are all definitely priced up.
Sox 5 star plays – Martinez, Dalbec
Sox 4 star plays – Bogaerts, Verdugo, Renfroe, Devers
GPP note – Great spot against another bad lefty.
Orioles 5 star plays – None
Orioles 4 star plays – Mountcastle, Hays, Mancini, Mullins
GPP note – O’s are better against LHPs, you’ll want RHBs here.
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
This should be a pretty low scoring game, as you have Robbie Ray the likely Cy Young award winner going up against Corey Kluber, if I’m stacking an offense here tonight it’ll be the Jays though as Kluber still isn’t his old self but they are priced up as well here. I may use a one off or two from this Yankees offense but I won’t stack against Ray.
Yankees 5 star plays – None
Yankees 4 star plays – Gallo, Judge, Stanton, LeMahieu
GPP note – Tough spot as Ray is the likely Cy Young winner, hedge stack
Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero
Jays 4 star plays – Hernandez, Semien, Dickerson, Gurriel, Grichuk
GPP note – Kluber won’t pitch deep here, has nice upside though as they just knocked Cole around last night
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets
In this matchup we have Edward Cabrera from the Marlins facing off against Rich Hill from the Mets, and I think you will want to stack some of the Mets LHBs here as Cabrera can’t seem to get them out. I do like targeting Rich Hill as an SP here as the Marlins offense is horrible against LHPs and he should cruise here in this one.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Chisholm, Brinson, Sanchez, Sanchez
GPP note – Hedge stack that could pay off big time, I’ll have some shares
Mets 5 star plays – Non
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso, Conforto, Smith, Davis
GPP note – Cabrera hasn’t been great but the Mets aren’t great against RHPs
Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros
In this one we have Collin McHugh going up against Lance McCullers in what I expect to be another lower scoring game as each of these games in this series have been pretty low scoring and pitching dominant. I will want to target some of these Rays LHBs though especially Lowe and Meadows as they can get to McCullers but I won’t be stacking Astros here as their production hasn’t been up to their pricing.
Rays 5 star plays – Lowe, Meadows
Rays 4 star plays – Cruz, Wendle, Franco
GPP note – Great spot for their LHBs, especially Lowe, McCullers hasn’t been great
Astros 5 star plays – Bregman
Astros 4 star plays – Correa, Diaz, Gurriel, Altuve, Brantley, Alvarez
GPP note – Really good spot in what is likely gonna be a bullpen game
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
This should be another low scoring affair, as both SPs have been on a tear this year with Kyle Gibson going up against Ian Anderson here. I’ll be doing some one offs here for bats, especially Harper, but I won’t be stacking against either of these SPs but if you are going to target this game I’d go with the Phillies LHBs.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Segura, Realmuto, McCutchen, Herrera, Miller
GPP note – Decent spot, but you’ll want their LHBs
Braves 5 star plays – Riley, Freeman
Braves 4 star plays – Albies, Duvall, Pederson, Soler
GPP note – Tougher matchup against Gibson but he has had a few blow up spots this year
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
This should be one of the better games to target for offenses, as you have Tarik Skubal going up against Joe Ryan, and Ryan has actually been really good so far in the few starts he’s made with that ERA hovering around 2.50. The Twins do hit LHPs very well, especially Donaldson and Sano, so those are the main guys I’ll be targeting and their RHBs make for good stacking here.
Tigers 5 star plays – None
Tigers 4 star plays – Grossman, Schoop, Haase, Baddoo
GPP note – Decent spot here as a low owned stack, could pay off big time if they can get to Ryan early
Twins 5 star plays – Donaldson
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler, Garver, Rooker, Sano
GPP note – Love them here as Skubal is due for a bad game
Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals
Here we have Shane Bieber who will likely be limited again here as he only threw 3 innings in his return from injury, and with the end of the season there is no reason for them to push him here. The Royals haven’t announced a starter here but I’ll be targeting the Indians offense here against whomever they throw out there as the Indians offense has been hitting very well over the past 2 weeks.
Indians 5 star plays – Reyes
Indians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Reyes, Mercado, Straw, Zimmer
GPP note – Reyes is heating back up and his price has come down, has a .300 ISO against RHPs
Royals 5 star plays – None
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Alberto, Dozier, Perez
GPP note – More of a one-off play offense today against Bieber
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants
Here we have Madison Bumgarner on the bump for the D-Backs, and he’s seen the Giants a few times already this year. The Giants are better against RHPs but I’ll be stacking them here as well, especially their RHBs like Longoria, Posey, and especially Ruf as he’ll likely be a core play from me with how well he hits LHPs. I’ll likely be fading the D-Backs bats altogether here as they haven’t done anything lately even though the Giants haven’t named a starter yet.
DBacks 5 star plays – None
DBacks 4 star plays – Varsho, Marte, Kelly
GPP note – Not a stackable offense tonight, one offs only
Giants 5 star plays – Bryant
Giants 4 star plays – Posey, Yastrzemski, Ruf
GPP note – Great spot for SFG here, you want their RHBs against Bumgarner
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
You’re going to want to stack the Dodgers LHBs here going up against Velasquez, as this dude can’t get them out to save his life. He’s been getting lit up all year long but the Dodgers bats will be expensive. On the Padres side they’ll face Tony Gonsolin who has been pretty solid, but I don’t see him pitching deep into this game and the Padres offense could go off here as well.
Padres 5 star plays – Tatis Jr.
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Grisham, Pham, Nola
GPP note – Tough to love any of their bats outside of Tatis
Dodgers 5 star plays – Muncy
Dodgers 4 star plays – Bellinger, Pollock, Turner, Seager, J.Turner
GPP note – They crush everyone, especially Muncy and they aren’t too overly priced tonight
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Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Vince Velasquez can’t get LHB’s out to save his life and he gets to face some of the best ones in the MLB here tonight, the Dodgers have been rolling and I don’t see a way they don’t get to him early and this game could be over very early.
- Boston Red Sox- More of the same in this series for the Red Sox as they’ll face another bad LHP that the O’s throw out there and this one could get out of hand quickly as the Red Sox RHBs have been locked in.
- Minnesota Twins – The Twins have been crushing LHPs lately, and Skubal has been trending in the wrong direction as well, I really like Donaldson here tonight as he has a near .300 ISO against LHPs as does Miguel Sano, stack with confidence as they are pretty cheap.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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