Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We head into the end of the weekend with an 11-game main slate, as well as 4 late/afternoon matchups. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We don’t get a ton of choices today, not with two small slates to work with. If you’re playing cash games on the early slate, Montas might be the guy to go to. For tournaments, you only have 3 other choices here, so it might be best to take a stand somewhere and trim the fat. On the main slate, Carrasco and McKenzie look like solid targets at first glance, though there are some riskier options who might have more upside. As always, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to get an idea of where they’re looking.
Early slate
Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers
We’ll kick things off with the Athletics and Tigers, with what might be about the only cash safe pitcher on this slate (though I must say, cash games on a 2 game slate in September don’t give me a whole lot of confidence). That would be Montas, who isn’t giving up much power and comes in with the highest KSCORE on the entire day. Of course, this is just a 2 game slate, so taking some Detroit stacks in tournaments here might be standard operating procedure.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Chapman, Murphy
GPP note – Decent matchup here, and Manning has traditional splits working against him; about double the ISO given up to lefties than to righties.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Grossman, Goodrum (some BvP), Castro
GPP note – Not a good matchup against Montas, but it’s a 2-game slate, so there are no rules here. Just be sure to keep these guys in GPP as much as possible.
Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants
As quickly as it starts, the early slate ends with the Brewers and Giants, with Lauer and Webb looking to get the start. Both have low carnage scores, and for tournament purposes, I really like Webb in this spot. Let’s see if he can outscore the other three starters on this tiny slate.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Garcia, Wong
GPP note – Bad matchup against Webb, who isn’t really giving up much to either side of the plate. There are at least some guys hitting for power, so a one-off or mini-stack couldn’t hurt.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Crawford/Belt, Posey, Flores
GPP note – Lauer is giving up .180 ISO to lefties, which isn’t super great for us, but it’s at least something. I think these bats would be more likely to come through the the Brewers’ ones.
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Main slate
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
We switch to the main slate, with the Red Sox and Rays facing off. We look to have Rodriguez and McClanahan for this one, and while neither offense is exactly fun to pick on, I do think both starting pitchers have the capability of putting up a decent score here, so don’t ignore them in your GPP pool.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Renfroe/Schwarber
GPP note – Not the best matchup, but McClanahan does have some reverse splits, so don’t be afraid to take a lefty here.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Cruz, Arozarena, Zunino, Wendle
GPP note – Reverse splits against Rodriguez too, so again, don’t be afraid of the lefties. It’s actually a pretty big split here, as he’s been strict to righties.
Miami Marlins at New York Mets
We head north for the Marlins and Mets, with Thompson and Carrasco squaring off. Carrasco has one of the best carnage scores on the day, as well as a good matchup here against the Marlins, so I think he could be a good general-purpose option here. Thompson is sort of middle-of-the-road, though his SIERA is the highest on the day. It may just depend on which version of him shows up, but at first glance, I’m leaning more towards the under here.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Anderson
GPP note – Not a fantastic matchup here, and most of these guys are running a bit cold against righties right now, outside of Anderson.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Conforto, Alonso, Nimmo, Lindor
GPP note – Thompson is giving up big numbers to lefties (.398 wOBA / .296 ISO) and isn’t striking out many batters, so this could be a good place to attack.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
We head to the Windy City next, with the Pirates and Cubs at good ol’ Wrigley Field. These two actually have higher carnage ratings than our Coors’ pitchers, so perhaps this could be a place to make some pivots?
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Tsutsugo
GPP note – Another good reverse splits spot, Thompson is giving up a lot more to righties, and is hardly striking anybody out, so these guys have a chance to do something.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Ortega, Wisdom, Happ
GPP note – Same as the Pirates, but these bats are hitting a little better. I think both would be a good place to stack.
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Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals
Up next is a division rivalry game, though there’s not a ton to play for here outside of bragging rights. McKenzie and Minor look to face off, both offering high upside potential (I’d give the better floor to McKenzie). It’s cooling down a little here in Kansas City, so all things considered, I think this is another “under” game in the making, but a lot of it could depend on which Minor shows up.
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Mercado, Hedges, Reyes
GPP note – Minor can be good or bad, but he gave up a ton of power to everybody in August (.258 ISO to righties, .300 to lefties…as well as .529 xwOBA to the lefties). If he’s bad, these guys could feast.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Perez, Merrifield
GPP note – McKenzie gives up some power to righties, but outside of that, I don’t love our chances here. Small exposure should be fine, but I’m not so sure about any big stacks.
Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies
Last but not least, we can’t have a 5-game slate without another volatile element to add to the mix…a Coors Field game. There’s no real reason to think these teams can’t go off, especially the Braves facing Gonzalez, but you could always hope they drop a dud (maybe due to this being the first game in the series?) and look elsewhere. Otherwise, expect this one to be chalky.
Braves 5 star plays – Freeman
Braves 4 star plays – Soler, Riley, Pederson
GPP note – Gonzalez doesn’t strike many out and has been giving up a ton to righties, so if you want to try and avoid some chalk while using these guys, consider them instead of just focusing on the lefties.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Cron, Blackmon, Joe, Rodgers, Story
GPP note – Toussaint can be hit-or-miss, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to hedge with him and these bats. He gives up about equal power to both sides, both over the .200 ISO mark.
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Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves – Coors, Gonzalez, Colorado bullpen, dangerous Atlanta bats…I can’t really tell you NOT to play these guys, but they will be popular.
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Thompson has looked like crud and comes in with a pretty high carnage rating. This might be a good place to look as an alternative (or supplemental stack) to the Coors’ teams.
- Chicago Cubs – Keller is having his struggles as well, and is giving up plenty of contact. Like above, this could be a good place to pivot to…perhaps a game stack wouldn’t be a terrible idea for some GPP lineups?
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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