Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/29:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Max Scherzer
- Nathan Eovaldi
- Frankie Montas
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Miami Marlins @ New York Mets (-172)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Elieser Hernandez
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Both of these SPs have flashed a ton of upside but neither has been great recently. I am not sure what has happened to Walker in the 2nd half as he was an All-Star but his stuff has just disappeared. I was shocked to see such a low total in this game and think we see at least 9 runs scored.
MIA 5-star plays: Bryan De La Cruz
4-star plays: Jesus Sanchez, Jazz Chisholm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies (-111)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Paolo Espino
Rockies – Peter Lambert
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12. Yesterday’s Coors game was not a typical Coors game. I think it returns to the run-scoring that we expected and probably at lower ownership thanks to yesterday’s performance. I expect Story to have a monster game as he, potentially, closes out his time with Colorado. Soto has been a stud during the 2nd half and despite yesterday’s rough game, I think he’s one of the top plays.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Alcides Escobar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story
4-star plays: Brendan Rodgers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians (-121) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Indians – Zach Plesac
Royals – Daniel Lynch
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. About the only time I love using the Indians is when they face an LHP. We got that today and they are a road favorite with a decent implied total. Perez can taste 50 HRs and I think he has that as a goal as he HR’d yesterday and leads baseball in both the HR and RBI categories. Not much to like from a pitching standpoint in this game.
CLE 5-star plays: Amed Rosario, Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Myles Straw, Yu Chang
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against LHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Nicky Lopez, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs this season.
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Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Pirates – Roansy Contreras
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
CHC 5-star plays: Ian Happ
4-star plays: Matt Duffy, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Colin Moran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against RHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins (-160)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Casey Mize
Twins – Michael Pineda
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Pineda is in a very nice spot as he’s had some success recently (against TOR twice, to be exact). Miggy has hit him EXTREMELY well in his career. I think the Twins do some damage today as the Tigers’ bullpen isn’t great and we know they are capping Mize’s innings to finish the season.
DET 5-star plays: Miguel Cabrera
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Max Kepler
4-star plays: Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers (-115)
Pitchers:
Angels – Janson Junk
Rangers – Taylor Hearn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This is another game that just doesn’t interest me very much on this slate. I suppose both SPs are in play because of the match-up but they aren’t very strong pitchers overall. The offenses are rather weak so we would look at one-offs and maybe mini-stacks but I don’t get excited thinking about them.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: David Fletcher
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against LHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: DJ Peters, Isiah Kiner-Falefa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs this season.
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Oakland Athletics (-111) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This series is great and I think we see a really impressive SP match-up tonight. The A’s need a win in the worst way while the Mariners are picking up steam and have a shot at the postseason. Haniger and France are rolling at the plate right now while the A’s need Olson to wake up and Pinder to continue hitting HRs.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Chad Pinder
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs this season.
Milwaukee Brewers @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Lorenzo Cain
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Harrison Bader, Dylan Carlson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
New York Yankees (-115) @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I really want this to be a strong SP match-up and have the game turn into a massive pitcher’s duel with a 2-1 final score but I feel like there could be some HRs hit tonight. The Blue Jays need this game the most but the Yankees are just rolling at the plate. This is the game that the Blue Jays went out and got Berrios for, it’s just a matter of him stepping up.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Corey Dickerson, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 against RHPs this season.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants (-270)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Giants – Alex Wood
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Kelly has been hit pretty well by the Giants and that should continue as the Giants look to seal the West Division title. The D’Backs hit LHPs far better than they hit RHPs so there is some upside to them but it would be a stack that’s down my list and only used as a deep GPP option. Wood has been decent but he doesn’t excite me at all. I know he will carry ownership so that’s why I might end up with more than 1 ARI stack.
ARI 5-star plays: Carson Kelly
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: Kris Bryant, Buster Posey
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 against RHPs this season.
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Boston Red Sox (-245) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Orioles – Zac Lowther
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Eovaldi needs to be dominant in this game as the Red Sox needs to pick up a couple of wins to end the season and secure a spot in the playoffs. The Red Sox offense is in a great spot yet again and after letting everybody down yesterday, I could see their ownership dropping slightly. They should still be fairly popular as people know we need to attack BAL pitching.
BOS 5-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against LHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Pitchers:
Padres – Undecided
Dodgers – Max Scherzer
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: AJ Pollock
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against LHPs this season.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros
Pitchers:
Rays – Drew Rasmussen
Astros – Luis Garcia
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs this season.
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox (-172)
Pitchers:
Reds – Sonny Gray
White Sox – Carlos Rodon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Cincinnati was officially eliminated yesterday and now they face an SP who has had a dominant season but is dealing with shoulder issues. Rodon hasn’t thrown this many innings in a long time and they are running him out to see if he’s going to be effective for them in the postseason or if he needs to be shut down. I wouldn’t expect much more than 4 innings from him today. Gray can be dominant or he could give up 4 runs in 5 innings to this White Sox lineup.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against LHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves (-135)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Braves – Max Fried
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Last night’s game was great baseball and I expect that to be the case tonight. I can see a little more offense happening tonight as both teams have a few guys who have had success against the opposing SPs. Nola is a guy that I prefer at home so this isn’t the greatest spot for him but the Phillies absolutely need him to be a stud. I use Fried a ton throughout the season and while I will have a share or two, I prefer the PHI bats over him tonight.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto
4-star plays: Odubel Herrera, Jean Segura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Adam Duvall, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- San Francisco Giants
- St Louis Cardinals
- Boston Red Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day – JT Realmuto, Philadelphia
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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