Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/28:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Logan Webb
- Walker Buehler
- Aaron Civale (I could have put Chris Sale here but let’s take a shot)
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Miami Marlins @ New York Mets (-177) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Mets – Marcus Stroman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 5.5. Remember that this is a 7-inning game. Stroman is in an excellent spot against this weak Miami offense. I don’t mind a couple of MIA bats but I think Stroman and Rogers dominate in this game. I think the Mets have a little more fire power in this match-up and win a low-scoring, 7-inning game.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Sanchez, Lewin Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Javy Baez, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against LHPs this season.
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets – Game 2
Pitchers:
Marlins – Undecided
Mets – Trevor Williams
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Remember that this is a 7-inning game.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Sanchez, Lewin Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Javy Baez, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies (-135)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. We should see some offense in this match-up even though I kind of like Freeland as a deep GPP option. Freeland did shut down the Nationals in Washington recently. I love the Rockies’ bats against LHPs and I really hope Rodgers is OK and he returns for this game. As you saw from the cover of this piece, I am all about the Cron-Story combination. Soto has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball for nearly 3 months now.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Lane Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against LHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron, Trevor Story
4-star plays: Brendan Rodgers (DTD), Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against LHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Indians – Aaron Civale
Royals – Brady Singer
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Myles Straw, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against LHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez (DTD)
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs this season.
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Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-111)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Alec Mills
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This series is going to be pretty boring overall but I am intrigued by the offenses in this match-up. There is some solid BvP to look at from a few guys and we know both pitchers can definitely struggle. We also know that both offenses can struggle and when we get situations like that, it makes for great GPP building around different scenarios. I was tempted to make my Dinger of the Day call in this game.
CHC 5-star plays: Ian Happ
4-star plays: Matt Duffy, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Colin Moran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against LHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
Tigers – Tyler Alexander
Twins – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. I have seen some reports of Barnes being the SP for the Twins but nothing is confirmed at this point. I think we could see a decent amount of offense in this game as both LHPs aren’t overly strong. The Twins still have plenty of bats who can do damage to an LHP while the Tigers have a few guys that are just dangerous enough.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against LHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Josh Donaldson
4-star plays: Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against LHPs this season.
Los Angeles Angels (-111) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Angels – Packy Naughton
Rangers – AJ Alexy
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Alexy hasn’t been very sexy recently but I am intrigued by this spot. He was strong against this Angels squad in his second start. He has struggled with control since then but I think that’s something that can be fixed going forward. Alexy has plenty of K upside in his arm. Naughton should be interesting against a very weak TEX squad but I just don’t think I can trust him as he’s mainly been hit around since coming up while offering little strikeout upside.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Jared Walsh, Brandon Marsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andy Ibanez, Isiah Kiner-Falefa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 against LHPs this season.
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Oakland Athletics (-121) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Athletics – Chris Bassitt
Mariners – Yusei Kikuchi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Bassitt looked really good in his return from taking that wicked line drive to the face. He was held to just 3 innings so we can’t expect a huge jump in performance here but I could see him aiming for 5 innings in this outing. Kikuchi is really frustrating but he has held his own against OAK this season, despite a few A’s bats having success against him. This series is a good one to watch as both teams battle for a chance at the 2nd Wild Card, even though they both have TOR and the Yankees ahead of them.
OAK 5-star plays: Mark Canha
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
Milwaukee Brewers (-121) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I really wish the Brewers hadn’t clinched the division yet as this series could have been a TON of fun. The Cardinals haven’t officially clinched yet so they do need to pick up a couple of wins. This SP match-up is going to be a lot of fun to watch as we know how dominant that Woodruff can be and how strong Wainwright can look at home. The Cardinals bats have been rolling as they have won 16 straight.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: Tyler O’Neill
4-star plays: Harrison Bader, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays (-121)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jameson Taillon
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I think we see plenty of offense in this one, especially because I don’t have TOR as my top stack on the night (they’ve been tormenting me). Ryu hasn’t been very sharp and he is coming off of the IL while Taillon has faded a bit down the stretch and the Blue Jays have hit a few HRs off of him. I looked at some season-long stats earlier today and did you know that there were just 6 players with 110+ runs scored this season (coming into Monday) and that the Blue Jays have 3 of them?
NYY 5-star plays: Gary Sanchez
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 against RHPs this season.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants (-270)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Luke Weaver
Giants – Logan Webb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Webb should be UBER popular on this slate as he gets a great match-up at home. The Giants were just dealt a blow to their postseason lineup as Belt took a pitch off of the left hand and has been diagnosed with a fractured thumb. I won’t count the Giants out from much because their HR production has been spread throughout the lineup. I love the BvP for some of the Giants in this spot.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Evan Longoria
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 against RHPs this season.
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Boston Red Sox (-260) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Chris Sale
Orioles – Bruce Zimmermann
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Sale can be extremely dominant and the Red Sox need him to absolutely dominate this BAL squad. There are a couple of surprising BvP spots with BAL but I won’t be betting against Sale. The Red Sox has a few guys that have hit LHPs well, traditionally. We know that offenses against BAL have performed really well this season. I was tempted to go with Renfroe as my Dinger of the Day as I do believe he gets one off of Zimmermann.
BOS 5-star plays: Hunter Renfroe
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against LHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against LHPs this season.
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-190)
Pitchers:
Padres – Yu Darvish
Dodgers – Walker Buehler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Imagine if the Padres had played better this summer and this series had a TON of meaning to it. The Dodgers bats are capable of giving any pitcher problems while Buehler is in a battle for the NL Cy Young award (I think he’s fading behind Scherzer). Tatis and Machado have 5 HRs in their 10 combined hits against Buehler so there is some upside to a mini-stack.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Gavin Lux, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs this season.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros (-135)
Pitchers:
Rays – Michael Wacha
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I really don’t know what to do with this game as both offenses feel like they are in a great spot but I also know that both SPs can do just enough. Both of these offenses are going to try and pick up momentum as the season winds down while heading into the postseason. I actually lean the Rays way a little bit but it’s a coin flip right now.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs this season.
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox (-177)
Pitchers:
Reds – Riley O’Brien
White Sox – Reynaldo Lopez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I don’t know much about O’Brien at this point in the morning but I do know that he has some control issues to go with a decent K rate. I do think the White Sox rest a regular guy each day as the season winds down (yesterday it was Anderson). Lopez hasn’t been as strong as an SP this season. His K rate has dropped as he’s tried to lengthen out. He has ability but I like this Reds offense right now.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against RHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves (-121)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This is the series of the week in baseball. These teams are battling for the division and we get some strong SP match-ups in all 3 games. If this game was in Philly, we would have a ridiculous SP match-up as Wheeler is best at home while Morton has been best on the road this season. With that said, it’s still very much a strong pitching match-up and one that would keep me away from a full stack of either side. It will not keep me away from mini-stacks as guys like Harper, Freeman, Realmuto, and Riley are solid plays.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Odubel Herrera, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Travis d’Arnaud
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- San Francisco Giants
- Colorado Rockies
- Boston Red Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day – CJ Cron, Colorado (it’ll probably be Trevor Story)
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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