Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/25:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Clayton Kershaw
- Corbin Burnes
- Jordan Lyles
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Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays (-203)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Rays – Shane McClanahan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Alcantara is always on my list as he has really blossomed this season, offering some strikeout upside. McClanahan needs to be in our pool because of the match-up. Tampa Bay has the kind of offense that can make things tough on Alcantara but they also could strike out a bunch. There is an upside in a TB stack and it’s one that should be in our MME pool for sure, thanks to the HR upside.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Fortes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against LHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ji-Man Choi, Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against RHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds (-145)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Reds – Vladimir Gutierrez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. We should see some runs in Cincinnati again today as the park is built for hitting and the pitching in this game is just not strong enough. The Nationals have surprised me a bit recently while the Reds have been a bit colder but they did wake up a little bit yesterday and they need to finish the season strong to give themselves a chance. Juan Soto continues to be red-hot in the second half of the season, which is something that I called in this article series, in their first game after the All-Star break.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Luis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: Joey Votto
4-star plays: Tucker Barnhart, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs this season.
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (-130)
Pitchers:
Royals – Jon Heasley
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I honestly don’t know much about Heasley at this point and with this being a first look article, we know that he was lit up recently. The issue is that I don’t think I can fully stack the Tigers’ anemic offense. Skubal has upside but I fear that the Tigers are going to limit him a bit in his last two starts. We know the top half of the KC offense is extremely dangerous and worthy of being stacked.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Adalberto Mondesi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against LHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Akil Baddoo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs this season.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies (-260)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Wil Crowe
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Suarez is a guy that I have come around on quite a bit but he was a bit of a letdown early in his last start but he managed to straighten it out. He should be somewhat popular and I understand why. The Phillies offense continues to come alive later in games and I am going to ride them out on this streak because they need wins every day/night. Harper has put up an impressive second half and I think he closes the season out from this day on with 4 HRs. Yes, I just made a prediction on one of the hottest bats in baseball during the second half.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Cole Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 against LHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Jean Segura, Didi Gregorius
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs this season.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Robbie Ray
Twins – John Gant
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs this season.
Seattle Mariners (-140) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Mariners – Tyler Anderson
Angels – Jaime Barria
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am probably going to end up higher on the Mariners than most in this spot. I like the way they have swung the bat recently while getting production from multiple slots in the order. Kelenic has really started to get comfortable while Seager and Haniger are always dangerous at the plate. The Angels lineup is just a mess when you look at it so Anderson is going to carry some ownership, especially if he’s at a lower price point.
SEA 5-star plays: Kyle Seager, JP Crawford
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Jarred Kelenic
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against LHPs this season.
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Houston Astros (-115) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Astros – Framber Valdez
Athletics – Sean Manaea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Manaea is 0-2 against HOU this season, having allowed 5 HRs in 23.1 innings to go with 13 runs on 26 hits. Houston has faced him plenty over the last few years but they don’t have a ton of overall BvP in their favor. They’ve hit an HR against him about 1 out of every 24 PAs while picking up an extra-base hit every 12 or so PAs. Valdez has an arm that I love as he’s generally allowed to pitch deeper into games and the A’s can struggle some against LHPs.
HOU 5-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Martin Maldonado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against LHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mark Canha, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against LHPs this season.
St Louis Cardinals (-157) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jon Lester
Cubs – Adrian Sampson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. When I see this total, I think the wind has to be blowing out at Wrigley. With how well the Cardinals have been playing, that’s a bad sign for the Cubs and Adrian Sampson. Lester has been really solid with the Cardinals and we know the Cubs can struggle but it might not be a spot that we want to use him, unfortunately. Stack up the Cardinals and watch the scoreboard light up, yet again.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman
4-star plays: Harrison Bader, Tyler O’Neill
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Frank Schwindel, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against LHPs this season.
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox (-115)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Nestor Cortes
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. The Yankees exploded against Eovaldi last night and this match-up is FAR better for them today. Pivetta is capable of picking up strikeouts but he makes mistakes and power can get to him, which the Yankees have an abundance of. The Red Sox, as a team, hit better against RHPs but they have a few guys that have hit LHPs and Cortes well. I think the Yankees should be more popular but the Red Sox make for a strong GPP stack.
NYY 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sanchez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Bobby Dalbec, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs this season.
San Francisco Giants (-140) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Giants – Anthony DeSclafani
Rockies – Jon Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. With the way the Giants can and have been swinging it, we have to be all about them yet again. I know that Gray can be really solid at home but guys like Belt and Crawford have hit him so well. I don’t like the Rockies as much against an RHP but it is in Coors and somebody like Brendan Rodgers has been swinging it well and he’s had success against DeSclafani so far.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Tommy La Stella
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: Brendan Rodgers
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs this season.
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Texas Rangers @ Baltimore Orioles (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Jordan Lyles
Orioles – Chris Ellis
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Lyles might end up one of my favorite SP2’s for GPPs on DK today. The Orioles are just a blah team and he’s capable of doing enough at cheap price points. I won’t have much interest in Ellis but maybe we should be against Texas’ weak lineup. I could see a couple of HRs hit by either team but the game finishing like 5-3.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, DJ Peters
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-240) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Kershaw has looked solid in his return and now faces a pretty weak ARI lineup. I know the D’Backs hit LHPs better but Kershaw isn’t a league-average LHP. A few of the Dodgers have had success against Gallen and then there’s the hot-hitting Gavin Lux. The Dodgers won’t be extremely popular but they should make your top 6 or so stacks overall on the day.
LAD 5-star plays: Gavin Lux, Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketal Marte, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs this season.
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers (-203)
Pitchers:
Mets – Rich Hill
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Brewers lineup woke up a bit with the HR ball yesterday so I could see them hitting a few off of Hill in this spot. Burnes is in a great spot, as long as he solves his Pete Alonso problem. Burnes is in the discussion for the NL Cy Young so I am sure he has a little extra motivation over his final two starts of the regular season. I believe the Brewers’ magic number to clinch the Central is down to 2, so the team definitely wants to get wins out of the way this weekend.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against LHPs this season.
Chicago White Sox (-180) @ Cleveland Indians
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Indians – Eli Morgan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Lynn is in a solid spot as the Indians lineup has a handful of guys who have really struggled to close out the season. Morgan is in a terrible spot as the White Sox looks to pick it up going into the postseason. Luis Robert has been rolling at the plate for much of the last month+. Ramirez is ALWAYS worthy of a one-off play from the Indians and he’s had some success against Lynn.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Braves – Huascar Ynoa
Padres – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 on the road this season.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- San Francisco Giants
- Chicago White Sox
- Toronto Blue Jays
MLB Dinger of the Day – Brandon Belt, SF
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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