Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/24:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Sonny Gray
- Jack Flaherty
- Tony Gonsolin
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Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays (-290)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Edward Cabrera
Rays – Undecided
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Rays are going to go the opener route with, potentially, Ryan Yarbrough as the long reliever. The Rays aren’t producing a ton on offense right now but Cabrera, while super talented, is allowing plenty of contact. They need guys like Meadows and Lowe to start getting hot to finish off the season while heading into the playoffs on a bit of a high. We know their offense is capable of waking up at any minute.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lewin Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Zunino, Manuel Margot
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against RHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds (-180)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Paolo Espino
Reds – Sonny Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Reds need to wake up really fast if they want to try and get back into the playoffs. Guys like Castellanos and India need to turn things around while Gray needs to come out and be dominant, even in a small ballpark. Soto is just an extremely tough match-up for every SP at this point while the rest of the WSH lineup is pretty questionable. Look for Votto to finish out the season swinging a hot bat as I love trusting veterans during crunch time.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Luis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: Joey Votto
4-star plays: Kyle Farmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs this season.
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Royals – Carlos Hernandez
Tigers – Casey Mize
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Hernandez has had some struggles recently but I really like his ability and the Tigers lineup isn’t exactly denting the scoreboard right now. The Royals have a few guys that have hammered Mize so far in his young career. I love the KC stack on this slate and absolutely love Perez as a one-off. I want to see him get hot and get to the 50 HR mark by the end of the season.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Nicky Lopez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs this season.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Pirates – Sam Howard
Phillies – Kyle Gibson
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. I believe we are waiting on the Pirates’ pitching plans, for the most part. Right now it looks like a bullpen-type game for them. The Phillies came back to win last night and they need to keep winning to find themselves in the postseason. It’s time for the middle of their lineup to do damage on a nightly basis. Harper just continues to get on base and do everything he’s capable of in order to get them to the postseason.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against RHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Jean Segura, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
Toronto Blue Jays (-153) @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios
Twins – Bailey Ober
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Berrios’ final line against the Twins, recently, is a little misleading as he ended up giving up 3 runs but he did pick up the win and he held them to a .160 average. I think a return to MIN is going to really excite him and I know the fan base loves him so he’s going to be treated extremely well. The Blue Jays, despite being able to get hits, just couldn’t do a ton of damage against Pineda yet again. Look for them to wake up tonight, against Ober.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Byron Buxton, Nick Gordon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs this season.
Seattle Mariners (-115) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Angels – Jose Suarez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Suarez has thrown the ball pretty well recently but I like the Mariners bats a bit too much to be on him. Seattle has an offense that just frustrates a pitching staff and they find ways to break through, generally with an HR or two from somebody you weren’t expecting it from. Gilbert gets a plus spot and has all sorts of talent. He should be a fairly popular SP2 on DK, thanks to a lower price point.
SEA 5-star plays: Kyle Seager
4-star plays: Tom Murphy, JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against LHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Marsh, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs this season.
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Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics (-121)
Pitchers:
Astros – Zack Greinke
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I normally hate Greinke and feel like teams should just smash him but he continues to do enough to frustrate me. The A’s have had some troubles with him overall, especially a guy like Matt Olson. Montas has the big-time arm with a ton of K upside, even at home (where K’s are traditionally lower due to the huge foul territory). I love seeing such a small total in this match-up because these are two teams that generally get stack ownership. I think we can use both SPs, even if I absolutely hate the idea of using Greinke and his lack of K’s.
HOU 5-star plays: Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Khris Davis, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
St Louis Cardinals (-160) @ Chicago Cubs – Game 1
Pitchers:
Cardinals – JA Happ
Cubs – Justin Steele
Rundown:
Still waiting on the Vegas total. Remember that this is a 7-inning contest.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Tyler O’Neill
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 against LHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Frank Schwindel, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against LHPs this season.
St Louis Cardinals (-180) @ Chicago Cubs – Game 2
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
Cubs – Zach Davies
Rundown:
Still waiting on the Vegas total. Remember that this is a 7-inning contest.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill
4-star plays: Harrison Bader, Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Frank Schwindel, Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs this season.
New York Yankees (-115) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We get a great pitching match-up but we see a total sitting 9, which is 1.5 runs higher than the Greinke-Montas match-up. Cole is coming off of an atrocious start and he’s had his struggles with the Red Sox this year despite picking up 25 Ks in 16 innings against them. I just don’t see a reason to go to his price point tonight. Eovaldi has actually been really good against the Yankees so far this season and he’s been great when pitching at home.
NYY 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Aaron Judge
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Alex Verdugo
4-star plays: Kike Hernandez, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 against RHPs this season.
San Francisco Giants (-190) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Giants – Alex Wood
Rockies – Peter Lambert
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12. The Giants have a team ISO of .196 against the Rockies this season and have scored 105 runs in 16 games so far. They have an OBP of .385 against Colorado pitching in those 16 games. We should see plenty of offense here as I like the Rockies against an LHP in Coors as well. I haven’t been doing a ton of it this season but I really think I am going to try and build multiple game stacks and just hope we get a traditional Coors experience.
SF 5-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Lamonte Wade Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron, Brendan Rodgers
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 against LHPs this season.
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Texas Rangers @ Baltimore Orioles (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Spencer Howard
Orioles – Alexander Wells
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Howard has looked good in 3 of his last 5 “starts” but the Rangers really aren’t letting him lengthen out at this point. Do I think that he could get to 4 innings and end up viable on DK at his price point? Yeah, I do think it’s possible but I don’t know that I want to play that game and aim for a ceiling. Wells has given up 5 runs in each of his last 2 starts and has allowed 5 HRs over his last 3. In a normal spot, the opposing offenses would be in play against these two pitchers but the offenses in this game are very sub-par.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andy Ibanez, Isiah Kiner-Falefa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against LHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-213) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Tony Gonsolin
D’Backs – Humberto Castellanos
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Gonsolin has the ability to win us GPPs tonight and I am all about it. He has held ARI to a .196 average this season over 14 innings of work. He shut them out in 5 innings of work just two starts ago and while he probably ends up limited to about 80 pitches, I do think it’s enough for us. I know the Dodgers could struggle early after coming out of Coors but this total and the match-up screams be all about the Dodgers offense.
LAD 5-star plays: Gavin Lux
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketal Marte, Carson Kelly
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs this season.
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers (-153)
Pitchers:
Mets – Tylor Megill
Brewers – Eric Lauer or Corbin Burnes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I wish I knew for sure what the Brewers were going to do at SP. I guess, either way, I want to use their SP but Burnes is just a different beast. Plus, it really changes the match-up as they are completely different SPs. Megill is somebody that has frustrated us lately but he’s also won people some money this season. We know that I think very little of this MIL offense overall so I do have to consider him in my pool for tonight.
NYM 5-star plays: Javy Baez, Kevin Pillar
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against LHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Omar Narvaez, Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs this season.
Chicago White Sox (-130) @ Cleveland Indians
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Indians – Shane Bieber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Bieber makes his return from a shoulder issue that saw him reside on the 60-Day IL. I am pretty excited to see his return but I do understand he’s probably going to be capped at the 70-80 pitch mark while the White Sox have actually hit him pretty well in their careers. Cease has massive K upside but the Indians lit him up in the only start he’s made against them this season. He’s had his struggles on the road, so that’s one thing to worry about.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Braves – Max Fried
Padres – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 on the road this season.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- San Francisco Giants
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB Dinger of the Day – Mike Yastrzemski, SF
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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