Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/01:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Carlos Rodon
- Max Scherzer
- Kevin Gausman
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St Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds (-145) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Reds – Sonny Gray
Rundown:
Remember that these games will be 7-inning contests. Both teams could flip-flop their starters so we need to pay attention to the posted lineups. For now, I will just assume it’s Mikolas vs Gray in one and Happ vs Miley in the other. Another early start in Cincinnati, we should see the Reds put some runs on the board with some solid pitching from Gray. A few of the Cardinals bats have been swinging it well but I don’t really want to attack Gray with much other than Edman at this point. Suarez has had a horrendous season but he’s hit Mikolas really well in his career.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dylan Carlson, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 against RHPs this season.
St Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds (-145) – Game 2
Pitchers:
Cardinals – JA Happ
Reds – Wade Miley
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Read above as the SPs could flip-flop games.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against LHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Jonathan India
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against LHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox (-121) @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Chris Sale
Rays – Drew Rasmussen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We have to pay attention to BOS as Bogaerts tested positive Tuesday night. This game probably stays pretty low-scoring but I do like a few bats for GPP purposes (Schwarber, Cruz). Sale should pick up strikeouts and be a GPP difference-maker as TB is weakest against LHPs overall. Rasmussen’s stuff has backed up a bit as an SP so BOS could find some success but I still prefer just a mini-stack.
BOS 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 against RHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against LHPs this season.
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays (-260)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Matt Harvey
Blue Jays – Steven Matz
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Hey look, the Blue Jays take on a below-average SP yet again! There are a few BvP spots to take advantage of as I think that Vlad is getting hot again and he draws a great match-up history-wise. Matz could be the highest-scoring SP on the slate or he could struggle with some walks and give up a 3-run bomb to somebody like Severino.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pedro Severino, Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against LHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 against RHPs this season.
New York Yankees (-255) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Angels – Packy Naughton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Upton has had some success against Cole but I probably won’t have more than 1 or 2 shares as a GPP dart. Cole is in one of the best spots on the slate as the Angels lineup is pretty weak overall and Ohtani was HBP Monday night so his status could always be in question. The Yankees bats should feast on Naughton and the Angels bullpen.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Justin Upton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
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Houston Astros (-135) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Astros – Jake Odorizzi
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I can see using mini-stacks from both teams but I just don’t think I will go beyond that. It’s tough for me to say that because I have been jamming HOU stacks into my builds because of their match-ups. At this point, it’s really just build around Yordan’s power upside with Altuve’s BvP in a small sample.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
Philadelphia Phillies (-177) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Nationals – Paolo Espino
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I know that Nola’s splits have me worried but it’s really tough to ignore his match-up, as a massive road favorite. The Phillies offense woke up late Tuesday and that could carry over to Wednesday’s game. I think we will find PHI in my top 5 stack options overall as I think Espino allows too much contact.
PHI 5-star plays: Brad Miller, Andrew McCutchen
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies (-125) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Rangers – Kohei Arihara
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I don’t have much interest in stacking the offenses but I do think there will be a few HRs hit in this game as Cron has been rolling over the last month or so and we know guys like Story and Blackmon are capable of putting up strong performances. Garcia is really the only Texas bat that interests me as Freeland has thrown the ball pretty well over the last month or so.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 against LHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Indians – Logan Allen
Royals – Mike Minor
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Oscar Mercado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against LHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs this season.
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San Diego Padres (-219) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Padres – Yu Darvish
D’Backs – Taylor Widener
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The D’Backs actually have some decent BvP against Darvish but they just aren’t a dangerous offense right now. I always love Ketel Marte because I think he’s a legit star in the majors. Widener has had some success against most of the SD lineup so he could surprise but I rarely want to actually jam in an SP against SD’s potent lineup.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: David Peralta, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs this season.
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants (-145)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Brett Anderson
Giants – Kevin Gausman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I am really intrigued by Gausman here as I feel like he has a pretty strong game against this MIL lineup. I just don’t think that MIL is that good of a team overall and they have been buoyed by pitching and some weak pitching in the NL Central. We know that the Giants are full of HR power and Anderson could have a rough day here as I have to believe that one of Bryant, Ruf, or Posey HRs against him.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Lorenzo Cain
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Darin Ruf, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against LHPs this season.
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Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-190)
Pitchers:
Braves – Max Fried
Dodgers – Max Scherzer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. There are a couple of Dodgers with very solid BvP and that’s enough to interest me in a Dodgers GPP stack on this slate. Scherzer has had plenty of success against the Braves so the match-up doesn’t worry me as much as it might for others. I think he makes a great GPP play but I probably look elsewhere as my cash SP.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Travis d’Arnaud, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against LHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics (-160) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Athletics – James Kapriellian
Tigers – Wily Peralta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I have ALL the interest in Kapriellan and absolutely zero interest in the Tigers bats at this point. The A’s haven’t been scorching hot but Peralta has fallen to earth after his, random, hot start to his MLB season. Harrison has hit him really well in his career while Olson and Chapman offer a ton of power upside.
OAK 5-star plays: Josh Harrison
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs this season.
Chicago Cubs @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
Cubs – Justin Steele
Twins – Joe Ryan
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Patrick Wisdom, Jason Heyward
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Josh Donaldson
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox (-295)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Mitch Keller
White Sox – Carlos Rodon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Rodon lines up to be one of the top SPs on the slate as the Pirates aren’t a very dangerous team and their best hitters are all struggling (best might be a stretch to use in describing some of them). The White Sox have guys hitting the ball well and Keller has problems with control. I can see the White Sox ending up a very popular stack in GPPs.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against LHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Yankees
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Chicago White Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day – Aaron Judge, Yankees
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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