Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/13:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Sandy Alcantara
- Luis Gil
- Adam Wainwright
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pitchers:
Rays – Ryan Yarbrough or Drew Rasmussen
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. I am really curious to see what Vegas thinks of this game. The Blue Jays are absolutely destroying the ball right now and the Rays can mash against RHPs. Manoah has 19 Ks in 10.2 innings against TB this season and that’s something that has to get our attention. He’s allowed just 3 runs (2 earned) in those 10.2 innings. The TB options are complete opposites but I think both struggle against this TOR team.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against RHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 against LHPs this season.
Houston Astros (-180) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Astros – Jake Odorizzi
Rangers – AJ Alexy
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am in a tough spot here as I am a HUGE fan of Alexy and have dubbed him “Sexy Alexy” in our VIP chat. He takes on an HOU lineup that has a bunch of guys swinging the bat extremely well over the last week plus. Odorizzi is capable enough as he has allowed 2 earned or less in 5 of his last 6 starts. He also has 14 Ks and 5 runs allowed in 13.2 innings against TEX this season. The big question for me is will he ever get the Quality Start bonus on FD?
HOU 5-star plays: Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Nick Solak
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs this season.
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St Louis Cardinals (EVEN) @ New York Mets
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Mets – Rich Hill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We get a match-up of two VERY experienced SPs (my way of saying old). Wainwright is always on my radar when he’s at home but I tend to shy away some when he’s on the road. He hasn’t been terrible on the road this season and his last two road starts have been really strong. The Cardinals bats can hit LHPs extremely well and I think they make an interesting GPP stack, despite the low game total.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Tyler O’Neill
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 against LHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Javy Baez, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox (-125) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The total is pretty surprising for me as we have seen Gilbert have the typical rookie year struggles. The Red Sox have an extremely dangerous offense but they can disappear at times. Rodriguez flashes stud stuff but then he just looks lost at times out there and gives up 6 runs in 4 innings and ruins our nights. Tom Murphy intrigues me as a one-off C who is swinging it well right now and against LHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Hunter Renfroe
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 against RHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Abraham Toro, Tom Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs this season.
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-270)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Kershaw returns from a lengthy IL stint so we probably see him limited a bit. I would guess the goal is to get him through 4 innings of solid baseball. Gallen was strong against the Dodgers earlier and he has gone for 21+ DK points in 3 of his last 4 starts. The issue is that the top part of the Dodgers lineup is heating up and that’s extremely dangerous for him.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs this season.
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Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees (-190)
Pitchers:
Twins – John Gant
Yankees – Luis Gil
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Gil has impressive upside but he showed why he probably isn’t ready to be on an MLB mound every 5 days recently. The Twins dealt him to the Yankees so there’s a bit of motivation for him. Gant has control issues himself but is an extreme groundball guy who has kind of gotten lucky to have his numbers not be worse. Rizzo lines up to be in an absolutely great spot against him thanks to his BvP and Gardner has been swinging it really well.
MIN 5-star plays: Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs this season.
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Nationals – Paolo Espino
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Alcantara has been on an absolute tear of late as he has 11+ Ks in 3 of his last 4 starts. I love the way he’s been throwing the ball and he’s definitely on my shortlist of pitching options for this slate. He really just needs to avoid Juan Soto as Soto has hit him really well. Espino has been decent and he’s looked really strong against MIA this season so he makes an interesting SP2 option on DK. I just don’t think he’s worth the play on FD.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan De La Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Padres – Yu Darvish
Giants – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .077 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Belt
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- St Louis Cardinals
- Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB Dinger of the Day – Teoscar Hernandez, Toronto
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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