Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too.
A look at pitchers
We get a nice array of pitching options today, and for cash options we can look at guys like Webb and Fried who have good matchups and solid stats across the board. Nola and McCullers might be in that group, too. For tournaments we have a few interesting options, such as Gray, who is up there with some of them.
We don’t have a ton of options for the late slate, but Scherzer and Snell both come in looking pretty good, so we’ll see how they can do. As always, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to get an idea of where they’re looking!
Main slate
Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers
We’ll kick things off with the Rays and Tigers, with Skubal and Patino getting the start. I think we all assume the Rays will steamroll this one, but the Tigers do get a decent matchup too, so maybe they can score a few runs.
Rays 5 star plays – Franco
Rays 4 star plays – Cruz, Zunino, Margot
GPP note – Big traditional splits here; Skubal is allowing .383 xwOBA / .258 ISO to righties. Stack away!
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Baddoo, Grossman, Cabrera/Schoop
GPP note – Good splits on both sides of the plate; Patino is allowing .381 wOBA / .232 ISO to lefties and .329 wOBA / .200 ISO to righties. They won’t be as popular, so a few lower-owned bats here could be good.
Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies
Up next are the Rockies and Phillies, with Nola and Feltner getting the start. The latter only lasted a couple of innings in his first outing, and I suspect that’s about all we’ll see from him again here. Might be a good spot for the Phillies to do some damage against him and the Colorado bullpen.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon, Story/Cron
GPP note – Strict wOBA numbers all around, but decent ISO to both sides (.162 / .141 to L/R), so Nola does allow some power every now and then. Perhaps a mini-stack or two could be useful.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Miller
GPP note – Everyone here will get good matchups against Feltner and the bullpen, so it doesn’t really matter where you stack. Harper/Miller have the best numbers against righties, with Galvis also putting up good power (.240 ISO) against them.
Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates
Up next is Corbin and the Nationals going up against Wilson and the Pirates. On paper this one looks a little more evenly matched than what Vegas will probably think of it, so I think there would be merit to grabbing shares of both offenses here…even if just a little.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto/Bell, Escobar/Thomas
GPP note – Good traditional splits (.395 xwOBA / .175 ISO allowed to lefties) againts Wilson, but he actually allows more power (.204 ISO) to righties.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Hayes/Reynolds, Tsutsugo
GPP note – Good traditional splits against Corbin (.418 wOBA / .350 ISO allowed to righties), but virtually nothing given up to lefties.
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
The Blue Jays will take on Lowther and the Orioles, and well…the Blue Jays at Camden Yards sounds like a great time to me. Lowther doesn’t strike out many, and doesn’t last very long, so it won’t be long until they get to beat up on the Baltimore bullpen. Expect them to be chalky.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Semien, Bichette, Springer…everybody?
GPP note – Everybody is in play here, and since these guys will be popular, it would be a good idea to try some wrap-around stacks or go with a lower-owned secondary stack (or pitcher(s)) to help be a little different.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Mullins/Mountcastle, Mateo
GPP note – Bad matchup against Matz, who is strict to both sides of the plate. Maybe some small stacks would be useful, but probably not huge stacks.
Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Indians
Lauer and the Brewers are up against Civale and the Indians next. Civale looked good in his return, matching his FD total from his last June start. I think he’ll have a slightly harder time here, but if he can keep it going, he might be a good GPP option.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Cain
GPP note – Not the best matchup for these guys, as Civale looks to be in good form in his return already. Maybe some small/medium stacks, but probably nothing major.
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Reyes
GPP note – A below-average matchup against Lauer, he allows .320 xwOBA to righties, but not much else. Some of these guys hit lefties well (mostly just the two above), so some small stacks could be okay.
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
Fried and the Braves will host Cabrera and the Marlins, and this one looks pretty good for the home team. I’d be surprised to see Miami hang with them here, but if you think it could happen, you’d have those stacks all to yourself.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Rojas
GPP note – Bad matchup against Fried, though he does allow .212 ISO to lefties.
Braves 5 star plays – Freeman
Braves 4 star plays – Albies, Duvall/Riley/Soler, Pederson
GPP note – Cabrera allows plenty to both sides of the plate, so stacks of any size in any order are in play here. If you think they’ll be chalky, try some wrap-around stacks.
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Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
We get the Royals and Twins next, with Bubic and Ober on the mound to start. The KC fan inside of me is trying to find a way for this to go our way, but I’m just not seeing it with this matchup. The Twins are in a good spot here, and might be fairly popular. If they don’t look to be in the ownership projections, this would be a good place to load up.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Perez, Merrifield
GPP note – Not a very good matchup here, though Ober does allow more power (.188 ISO) to righties than he does lefties (.107 ISO).
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Polanco, Donaldson, Kepler, Buxton/Sano
GPP note – Pretty good matchup against Bubic, who has been soft to both sides of the plate (.380 wOBA / .212 ISO to righties, .407 wOBA / .350 ISO to lefties), and we all know how bad this bullpen can be. Stack away!
Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox
We get some Sox on Sox action up next, with Boston and Chicago facing off with Pivetta and Lynn on the hill. Both teams look to be about in the same spot here, at least on paper, so I think having at least some exposure to all pieces of this one could be a good idea. It looks to be a good game for some hedging.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers, Schwarber
GPP note – Not a great matchup against Lynn, though he does allow good numbers to lefties (.414 wOBA / .261 ISO), and some power (.150 ISO) to righties. This would be a good place to hedge.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu, Robert/Grandal
GPP note – Nearly the same matchup on paper against Pivetta, so going with traditional splits is the way to go here (also a decent hedging spot).
Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros
We head south for the Angels and Astros, with Barria and McCullers getting the start. This one is certainly leaning towards Houston taking the win, and I’d be surprised to see the Angels put up much of a fight, outside of maybe Ohtani.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani, Walsh
GPP note – Bad matchup against McCullers, who has been strict to both sides of the plate. A few contrarian picks might be okay, but I wouldn’t go with full stacks against this arm.
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve, Correa, Bregman/Brantley
GPP note – Barria allows plenty to both sides, but slightly more to righties (.383 wOBA / .200 ISO to them). It’s a good place to grab some bats, but don’t be afraid to go for some RvR guys here. Bregman will probably keep his hitting streak going.
Cincinnati Reds at St Louis Cardinals
We get Happ and the Cardinals hosting Gray and the Reds next, and I like the visitors here. Though we normally would like pitchers at home, Gray certainly has the advantage here. Granted, both teams can drop big duds at any moment, so there might be just as good of a chance of going over as there is under.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Castellanos, Votto
GPP note – Decent matchup against Happ, though his reverse splits (.397 xwOBA / .273 ISO allowed to lefties) as of late are interesting.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado, O’Neil
GPP note – Mostly a bad matchup against Gray. He does allow .149 ISO to lefties, but that’s about all we’ll get here.
San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs
We’ll wrap up the main slate with the giants and Cubs, with Webb and Steele on the mound. Another seemingly one-sided game, this one looks pretty good for the Giants, and not so good for the Cubbies. Maybe some home field magic can help them out?
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Posey, Belt/Crawford
GPP note – Good power (.200 ISO) allowed to righties here, with good wOBA numbers to both sides. Good place for some medium/large stacks.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ
GPP note – Bad matchup against Webb, who will probably roll through most of this lineup. Stack with caution.
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Late slates
Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
The afternoon slates begin with the Rangers and Athletics, who will have Kaprielian
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Solak, Lowe
GPP note – Good matchup against Kap, and these guys are starting to hit righties well, so you can stack these guys with a decent amount of confidence.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Chapman, Olson/Canha/Harrison
GPP note – Not the best matchup here, though Hearn does allow a lot of power (.293 ISO) to lefties.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Seattle Mariners
We get a couple of our favorite lower-end teams here, though this one looks pretty good for the visitors. They get the better pitching matchup, and their bats are roughly on par with what Seattle has in their matchup, so I think they can edge them out here by a run or two.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte/Peralta, Ahmed
GPP note – Solid traditional splits here (.437 xwOBA / .253 ISO allowed to righties), with .375 xwOBA allowed to righties. Both sides of the plate are in play here. These guys are in play for some stacks.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Haniger, Seager, Torrens/Murphy/Crawford
GPP note – Not a very good matchup against Gilbert, but traditional splits are the best option (.325 wOBA / .171 ISO allowed to righties).
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Our third and final game of the afternoon slate, we get the Padres and Dodgers here, with two of the best pitchers on the day getting the start. That would be Snell and Scherzer, both of which are pretty well locked in right now. We’ll probably have more strikeouts than hits, so batters beware. Snell actually has the slightly higher KSCORE here, so be sure you’re playing both pitchers.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – none
GPP note – Terrible matchup against Scherzer, so good luck Padres. Contrarian stacks only.
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Betts, Turner/Turner/Seager?
GPP note – Snell does allow .151 ISO to righties, but he’s also striking out over 41% of his opponents, so don’t expect the Dodgers to do a ton here.
New York Yankees at New York Mets
We’ll end the day with our showdown game, with both New York teams competing against not one, but two Sunday night NFL games. Alas, summer has to eventually end, but not yet! Anyway, we’ll see Carrasco for the Mets, though it looks like a bullpen game for the Yankees. Carrasco looks to be settling in a little, so maybe he can keep the Bronx Bombers down for a few innings.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge/Stanton, Gallo
GPP note – Carrasco is improving, though he is still allowing some power to both sides (.208 ISO to lefties, .302 ISO to righties).
Mets 5 star plays –
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor/Conforto, Pilar/Alonso
GPP note – Not sure who is getting the start here, though it looks to be a bullpen game. The first two above are hitting righties well, and the latter hitting lefties well.
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And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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