Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/10:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Framber Valdez
- Julio Urias
- Ian Anderson
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Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Pirates – Steven Brault
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. I am really intrigued by Gray as he has the stuff to be a stud at the MLB level. He gets a plus match-up for the most part, as I think Hayes and Reynolds pose a threat to him. On the other side, Brault has flashed the ability to be solid so we don’t really need to be stacking here. Most people will bypass this game and while I understand it, I think either SP along with a mini-stack on either side is viable for our GPP builds.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Lane Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against LHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 against RHPs this season.
Milwaukee Brewers (-145) @ Cleveland Indians
Pitchers:
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Indians – Eli Morgan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I was shocked to see such a high total with Houser on the mound. I realize he isn’t like the other 3 in the rotation but he’s solid enough while this CLE lineup can go cold. Morgan isn’t somebody I am considering, despite my belief that the Brewers lineup is just average overall. I do like taking LHBs in CLE so I can get behind some stacks but mainly from the Brewers side of this game.
MIL 5-star plays: Eduardo Escobar
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Myles Straw
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs this season.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Robbie Ray
Orioles – Chris Ellis
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Ray has really thrust himself into the Cy Young conversation while the Blue Jays offense has started to wake up. While I will certainly be on Ray, I do think there are a few BAL bats that can be sneaky. They have a few guys who have hit Ray well in their careers and another one or two that have hit LHPs well this season. We know that TOR is going to be popular as Vlad is red-hot again.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Alejandro Kirk
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against LHPs this season.
Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics (-190)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Glenn Otto
Athletics – Paul Blackburn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Otto has been solid at the MLB level through 2 starts and while the A’s have a dangerous lineup, most of them are cold at the moment. Blackburn gets a plus match-up but he doesn’t really have the K stuff to excite me. Canha is swinging a really hot bat so I am going to be using him as a one-off a decent amount. I think the Rangers are a very interesting, deep GPP, stack to get a piece of because of the amount of contact they should make.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Yohel Pozo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: Mark Canha
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs this season.
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Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros (-195)
Pitchers:
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Astros – Framber Valdez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Here’s the pitching match-up of the night even though I think that Ohtani could have some struggles. When I say struggles, I don’t mean run out and start jamming in HOU stacks. Valdez looks to be in a prime spot as the Angels have been striking out at a decent rate recently. Kyle Tucker has been scorching hot at the plate and he has had success against Ohtani. Remember that we will not get points for hitting from Ohtani.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jared Walsh, Jo Adell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against LHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs this season.
New York Yankees @ New York Mets
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. The Yankees have hit the struggle bus recently so they will need to find a way to wake up while the Mets have put up a few runs in recent ball games. I like the spot for some of the Mets bats even though, as a whole, they have struggled against LHPs this season. Stanton has hit Walker well in his career while Odor has been strong against him as well but he may not make the lineup without the DH available.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Rougned Odor, Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Javy Baez, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against LHPs this season.
San Francisco Giants (-145) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Giants – Undecided
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Since I pointed out a couple of weeks ago that Hendricks led baseball in wins, he hasn’t picked up a win. He has struggled a TON at home this season and in comes the team with the most HRs in baseball. I generally look to fade a team the first game or two after playing in Coors but the Giants play there plenty each season and they have shown that it doesn’t matter where they are, somebody is going to hit an HR. Happ is extremely hot for the Cubs and makes a GREAT one-off.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Belt, Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Lamonte Wade, Steven Duggar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: Ian Happ
4-star plays: Frank Schwindel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Tanner Houck
White Sox – Carlos Rodon
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. This SP match-up is really intriguing but there are a bunch of question marks with both guys. Houck just racks up pitches and that keeps him from getting deep in games despite his ability to be dominant in stretches. Rodon is dealing with a shoulder issue and he could be limited to a few innings or he could just struggle with location/command. I actually think I want a few stacks of the Red Sox in hopes that he just isn’t sharp and they do have some plus BvP.
BOS 5-star plays: Hunter Renfroe
4-star plays: Kike Hernandez, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against LHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: Yasmani Grandal
4-star plays: Leury Garcia, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs this season.
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Madison Bumgarer
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. I could see this game being a surprise pitcher’s duel or I could see each guy giving up a couple of HRs and allowing 5-6 runs in 4-5 innings of work. Marte and Haniger stand out from a BvP standpoint while I think each side is viable in GPP builds with ARI being more of a deep GPP option for us. Gonzales is a guy that I like to use at lower ownership because he can show nice returns on a PT/$ basis.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Carson Kelly, David Peralta
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against LHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger
4-star plays: Abraham Toro, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against LHPs this season.
Cincinnati Reds (-135) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Cardinals – Jon Lester
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Mahle has been absolutely dominant on the road this season but there are a few Cardinals bats who have had strong success against him. He has allowed 4 HRs in 17 innings against them this season but just 6 earned runs. On the road this season, he has allowed just 18 runs in 85.1 innings. Lester just doesn’t do it for me anymore and the Reds are going to be one of my favorite stacks with Castellanos-India being one of my favorite mini-stacks of the slate.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Jonathan India
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against LHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: Yadier Molina
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Harrison Bader
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Rockies – German Marquez
Phillies – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Marquez has been pretty bad on the road this season, which is crazy to think that he just dislikes pitching away from Coors. The Phillies bats have been somewhat explosive lately with Harper being an absolute stud. I feel like every game in this article, so far, has a guy or two that I love as a one-off. I have seen rumblings that the Phillies might go for a bullpen game and that would eliminate the Rockies even more for me. Not because the Phillies have some elite bullpen but because Girardi gets to play match-up baseball and that always hurts an offense.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Odubel Herrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs this season.
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Tampa Bay Rays (-177) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Rays – Michael Wacha
Tigers – Matthew Boyd
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I was really shocked to see that nobody on DET has faced Wacha in their careers. I also saw that we could see Archer follow Wacha in this game. Nelson Cruz is hot at the plate and he’s always in play against LHPs while Luplow has had success against Boyd. I think a Tigers stack is very interesting from a GPP standpoint as Cabrera-Grossman-Candelario are all swinging it really well.
TB 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Jordan Luplow, Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against LHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: Robbie Grossman
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
Royals – Daniel Lynch
Twins – Griffin Jax
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. We should just always leave Salvador Perez in the 5-Star section of this article as he is just far and away the best hitting C in baseball. There’s such a gap at the position that if you go overweight on him every night, you are bound to put yourself in a great spot. I like the Twins bats against Lynch but they haven’t been hitting all that well as a whole. Polanco has been great since the trade deadline while Sano is showing his ridiculous power.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Nicky Lopez, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Miguel Sano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs this season.
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
Pitchers:
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Braves – Ian Anderson
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. This is an under-the-radar pitching match-up for me as we know that Rogers is a difficult match-up for any team, even the powerful Braves. He hasn’t been strong in a number of starts but he was away from the team due to personal things so I would expect him to pick it up again soon. Anderson is going to be one of my favorite GPP options while probably offering a solid baseline for cash games on DK as your SP2. I understand he has struggled against MIA this season but I am willing to trust his home numbers.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Rojas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Adam Duvall
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against LHPs this season.
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-160)
Pitchers:
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Musgrove HAS to step up big time for the Padres as they have scuffled and are in a fight for the postseason. Urias continues to show the stuff that made him one of baseball’s top pitching prospects a few years ago. He is leading baseball in wins and Roberts is finally trusting him. A few Padres bats have hit him well but I still like his stuff and the fact that SD has struggled against LHPs makes it easier to stomach. Musgrove has a tough match-up but he’s shown the ability to get outs against the Dodgers this season.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Cronenworth, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against LHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Tampa Bay Rays
MLB Dinger of the Day – Nelson Cruz, TB AND Bryce Harper, PHI
(Let’s get a two-for)
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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