Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m mutt18 and I am one of your basketball, football and baseball coaches. We head into the beginning of the week with only 5 games on tap here.
A look at pitchers
Not much to choose from here today, the one with the best numbers is gonna be Luis Castillo, but he isn’t on the main slate. I’d say that Lucas Giolito is likely going to be your best option here today as he should rebound from a bad start and Freddy Peralta has also been really good this year, however, the Brewers have expressed that they will be limiting his pitch count moving forward to keep him fresh for the playoffs. For GPPs, Joe Musgrove and Jameson Taillon in that order are going to be your next best candidates on a small slate.
Early Game
Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Indians
We’ll kick things off this one game that starts out at 6:10 P.M. E.T. The Reds offense is white hot right now and are showing no signs of slowing down at all, but the Indians will be throwing a lefty out there in Hentges so that makes the Reds LHBs less desirable in this spot, but they can still get into that bullpen early. For the Reds, Luis Castillo has been lights out over the past month after a rough start to the season, so I like his chances here as Cleveland isn’t the offensive powerhouse they used to be.
Reds 5 star plays – Nick Castellanos
Reds 4 star plays – India, Votto, Stephenson, Farmer, Suarez
GPP note – I’ll want to target the Reds RHBs here today, especially Casty as he is a lefty killer, outside of him, Stephenson and India are my two favorites after him but Votto is all still very much in play.
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Reyes, Mercado
GPP note – Castillo has been pretty lights out the past month and a half, so I won’t be targeting Indian bats too heavily here especially since this game isn’t on the main slate.
Main Slate
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
Here we have Lucas Giolito going up against Beau Burrows who is carrying an ERA of over 11 into this game. I like the White Sox bats a lot here, as they’ve come back alive with Jimenez back in the lineup, and he just double donged last night as well. Gio is coming off one of his worst starts of the year but the Twins offense isn’t as scary with Cruz gone, so he’ll be someone I’m targeting on the main slate.
White Sox 5 star plays – Abreu, Jimenez
White Sox 4 star plays – Anderson, Vaughn, Engel, Moncada, Hernandez
GPP note – Great spot for the White Sox bats especially if they can get into the Tigers pen early, but they will likely be chalky.
Twins 5 star plays – Kepler, Garver
Twins 4 star plays – Rooker, Sano, Cave, Larnach
GPP note – Twins are still a very good offense with a lot of young bats, but they aren’t as consistent, Gio is coming off his worst start of the year though so this could be a perfect hedge stack opportunity in GPPs.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
Freddy Peralta is likely going to be the top owned SP on the slate and for good reason, the Brewers have talked about limiting his pitch count and pulling him early, but he’s gone for B2B great starts even if he isn’t going as deep into games. On the other side, Alec Mills has been a solid SP but has been inconsistent to say the least, which leads for another stacking opportunity with the Brew Crew.
Brewers 5 star plays – Narvaez
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Tellez, Wong, Escobar
GPP note – Yelich is back, but the power just hasn’t been there for him this year, he’s going to get going at some point though so keep an eye on a breakout coming in the near future.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Contreras, Happ, Wisdom, Ortega
GPP note – Cubs are going to be another hedge stack option on a small slate where Peralta will be popular, but if it comes down to it I prefer the Twins.
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New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals
This is another solid spot for this Yankees lineup, but they keep getting hit with the Covid issue as Rizzo is now out for the next few games with it. Still with the addition of Gallo as well this offense is still very potent and can pop off at any time especially against a guy like Hernandez. For the Royals side, Taillon has been solid, I won’t likely be stacking against him but he gets a nice park upgrade pitching at Kauffman, one offs only for me in all likelihood.
Yankees 5 star plays – Gallo, Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Stanton, LeMahieu, Odor
GPP note – Going to be one of the top stacks on the slate for good reason, this Yankees offense is dangerous from top to bottom but they do get a major park downgrade as Kauffman is a very pitcher friendly park.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Perez, Merrifield, O’Hearn
GPP note – Not big on the Royals here in Kauffman, they are an annoying offense but not one that hits many HRs at home which is what you want when stacking, I’ll likely be taking one-offs only here.
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Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres
Here we have Mr. Jekyll and Hyde in Musgrove back on the mound for the Padres, he was flat out dominant in his last start after getting knocked around in several starts in a row, but with the Marlins coming off a Coors hangover here I will be targeting him heavily in this matchup in his friendly home ball park. On the other side, Thompson is due for some regression here, although he is a very good young pitcher this Padres offense is just too good to keep down even with Tatis on the IL.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Aguilar, Alfaro, Brinson, Anderson
GPP note – Not an offense I will be targeting much, as the Coors hangover is real and they go to a very hitter friendly park in Petco.
Padres 5 star plays – Machado, Nola
Padres 4 star plays – Cronenworth, Myers, Frazier
GPP note – One of my favorite stacks on the slate as people will be off them a bit with Tatis out, but they are still very dangerous and Thompson is due for some regression in this game.
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Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Chicago White Sox – White Sox are hot right now and Burrows comes into this game with an ERA of over 11, both their RHBs and LHBs should have a field day in this one.
- San Diego Padres – Not as scary without Tatis, but they are still a potent offense as long as Machado and Nola are healthy, I don’t have a ton of faith in Thompson here.
- Milwaukee Brewers – Mills has been very inconsistent, and we may have a friendly wind blowing out here, the Brewers all get Yelly back as he really invigorates this offense so I like them as an underrated stack here tonight.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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