Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We head into the end of the weekend with an 11-game main slate, as well as 4 late/afternoon matchups. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We have a fairly well-rounded group of pitchers to choose from today, but like yesterday, we have quite a few with high ISOs and SIERAs. We also only have half as many with 500+ KSCOREs, with several pitchers dipping down into the low 300s…yikes! For the main slate, McCullers is performing the best of the group and leads the way with his carnage rating.
For the afternoon games, Buehler finds himself looking a lot like McCullers. Snell knows how to pitch and gets a good matchup, so let’s see if he can get his stats headed in a better direction after this one.
Main slate
Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
We’ll kick things off with our Camden Yards game, and really, it’s much the same as yesterday. The Rays get another great matchup here and I’d be surprised to see them drop the ball here. The O’s will have a better matchup this time, so maybe they can score a few more runs this time around.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Choi, Cruz, Franco, Lowe, Meadows, Arozarena
GPP note – They’ll have a pretty good chance to go off again here, as Lopez is an easy target from either side of the plate. This entire lineup is squarely in play, but they will be popular.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Mullins
GPP note – Wacha has some reverse splits working against him, so consider running a righty or two against him.
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees
We’ll slide on over to New York for the Mariners and Yankees, where we’ll get Kikuchi and a bullpen game. I think both sides will get some action here, but I don’t know if they’ll have quite the ceiling that some others will. Still, exposure to some small/medium stacks could be good. They would make decent secondary stacks.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Toro, France, Seager, Haniger
GPP note – Hard to get overly excited with bullpen games, but they are hitting well enough to warrant some small-stack exposure
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge/Stanton, Rizzo, LeMahieu
GPP note – Kikuchi’s strikeout rate is pretty solid and he’s been strict against lefties, but does allow a lot of power to righties, so that’s where you’d want to attack him
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
The Mets and Phillies are up next, with the home team being in a much better spot. It’s Wheeler vs Walker, and they’ve on different ends of the spectrum. I don’t expect much out of the Mets here, but the Phillies could be a good source of some fantasy production for us.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – McNeil
GPP note – Tough matchup against Wheeler, and these guys aren’t hitting righties all that well right now. Might be best to look elsewhere.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper/Hoskins
GPP note – Walker is a good pitcher to target, with him allowing plenty of power and contact to both sides of the plate. He’s only striking out 14% of his opponents as well, so stacks of any size are in play here.
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
We get just one game from the Red Sox and Blue Jays today, and hopefully they’ll bring some more scoring with them. I do think the Blue Jays will get something going here, as they get a great matchup against Richards, who is just begging to get shelled by somebody. To be fair, he held his own against them back in July, but I have a feeling maybe that won’t be the case this time around.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers, Bogaerts, Hernandez
GPP note – Ryu’s reverse splits could be a good place to attack him, though Devers might be about the only option to really exploit that.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero, Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Semien, Bichette, Hernandez
GPP note – After a quiet double-header yesterday, these guys get a guy who gives up a lot of hits, especially to righties, so I’d go right back to them here.
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians
The Tigers and Indians are up next, and both teams get a favorable pitching matchup here. It’s not often I would consider it, but I don’t hate game-stacking this one in a few lineups, because I do think both have about an equal chance of putting up a fair number of runs.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Baddoo, Cabrera, Grossman
GPP note – Not too bad of a matchup against Plesac, who is giving up a lot of power and has a puny 12% strikeout rate in his recent starts. People are coming off of them, so they shouldn’t be too popular.
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Reyes, Mercado
GPP note – Pretty much the same as the Tigers; Peralta has an 11.8% strikeout rate and is giving up plenty to both sides, so this could even be a game-stack option.
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Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
We head to our other really good hitter’s ballpark, with the Pirates and Reds facing off. Like yesterday, I think the Pirates are worth a look in terms of some small/secondary stacks. The Reds, well they’re basically the same here too, just with a bullpen game this time around. It’s hard to dislike either team at this park.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds
GPP note – Another reverse splits spot, Mahle is allowing quite a bit to righties while being fairly strict to lefties, so there are at least a couple of low-owned options to consider here.
Reds 5 star plays – Votto
Reds 4 star plays – Winker, India, Castellanos, Farmer, Moustakas
GPP note – Hard to know what to expect from Wilson, like how long he’ll pitch for, but these guys are still worth a look at this ballpark.
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
The Nationals and Braves are up next, and again, we get one good pitcher with one not so good pitcher. The Braves have the advantage there, with Fried being pretty solid, so I don’t like the Nationals much outside of some small groups or one-offs. As for the Braves, they get Corbin who isn’t really holding anybody down, so we’ll see if these guys can take advantage of the matchup or not. I can’t say I like hedging there, because even if they don’t rack up a ton of runs, I don’t see Corbin striking out many of them.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto, Bell
GPP note – Not a great matchup against Fried, though he does allow a little bit of power to lefties. Can’t say I would like big stacks, but maybe 1-2 bats couldn’t hurt.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Freeman, Soler, Swanson, Albies
GPP note – Corbin’s strikeouts are still down and he’s allowing plenty of contact, so we’ll see if these guys can make some noise in this spot.
San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers
We get the Giants and Brewers next, and we continue the trend of navigating interesting pitching matchups. Anderson isn’t striking out many batters, though he’s not getting hit around, either. Cueto is sort of the opposite, allowing some power but also striking out a fair amount. This one certainly has GPP written all over it, but I think with a little bit of digging, a few gems can be found here.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Posey, Crawford/Belt, Yastrzemski
GPP note – Anderson hasn’t been allowing a ton but he’s not striking many out, either. That means there should be plenty of contact and chances of something happen, so this could turn into a bounce-back spot.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Adames, Tellez
GPP note – Lefties are the way to attack Cueto, as he’s giving up .309 ISO to them. Be careful though, because his 28.2% strikeout rate could help limit stacks, so smaller groups might be the better option.
Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros
We get a stud or two in our next matchup, with McCullers and the Astros hosting the Twins and Maeda. Both offenses are potent, as are both pitchers, so I like the idea of grabbing pieces of each part of this one, as I think we’ll see one of the pitchers and/or offenses help take down a tournament somewhere.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Garver, Polanco, Donaldson/Sano
GPP note – Bad matchup against McCullers, but they’re swinging the bat well enough to warrant contrarian stacks. As usual, be sure to hedge if you go this route!
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez, Altuve, Tucker/Maldanado
GPP note – Not a good matchup here either, as Maeda’s 31.8% strikeout rate is right up there with McCullers. This is another good hedge spot, as it’s Houston, and they always have at least a bat or two hitting well.
Kansas City Royals at St Louis Cardinals
We wrap up the main slate with our I-70 game, and this time we get two weak pitchers to go against two volatile offenses. Like the Braves, I don’t think either pitcher will have enough stuff to rake up a bunch of strikeouts, so I don’t think I’d worry about hedging here. Rather, I think both offenses are in play, as they’re both in high-upside matchups.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Perez, Merrifield, Santana
GPP note – Lester has been soft to his opponents and isn’t striking out very many, so this could be a place for KC to do something for a change. He’s been equal to both sides of the plate, so it doesn’t matter where you choose to attack him from.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Arenado
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt, O’Neil, Bader
GPP note – Bubic is much the same as Lester, giving up plenty to both sides of the plate. Our bullpen stinks too, so I’m expecting some fireworks here.
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Late slates
Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies
We head west to Coors to kick off our afternoon slate, and I think this game will look a bit like the previous ones, with the Rockies doing some damage and the Marlins…participating? Freeland can navigate this lineup, and knows how to pitch at home, so I don’t think we’ll see a whole lot of difference with the outcome of this game.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Rojas
GPP note – Freeland knows how to pitch at Coors, so don’t be surprised to see these guys go the under again. Rojas is about the only one hitting lefties well, so do consider him at least.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Cron, Blackmon, Story
GPP note – Looks like a bullpen game, and these guys are rolling, so expect them to be chalky again.
Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
It’s more of the same with the Rangers and Athletics here – the Rangers are in a not-so-great spot against Kaprielian, and I don’t expect them to do a whole lot in this one. The Athletics get Lyles, who is about the opposite, putting these guys in a spot to do some more damage. If you fade Coors for some reason, consider going this route…though after going off yesterday, they won’t really be sneaky. Such is life on a 4 game slate!
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Lowe, Kiner-Falefa, Garcia
GPP note – Not a very good spot here; Kaprielian is pitching well and has a respectable 25% strikeout rate. Maybe a bat or two, but probably not much.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Olson, Harrison, Marte, Canha
GPP note – Traditional splits are the way to go against Lyles, with his .402 xwOBA and .212 ISO given up to lefties recently. These guys can be streaky, but might make a good alternative to Coors.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
The visitors in this game aren’t very exciting either, as the Diamondbacks take on the Padres again. Even though Snell isn’t as good this year as he has been in the past, he’ll have a good chance to have one of those performances, as these guys are just pretty weak. He has shown some weakness to righties, so you could go with some of them if you really wanted, but I don’t expect them to get very far. As for the Padres, they’ve running much hotter, and Bumgarner is sort of like Snell in that he’s not been overly dominant like he has shown in the past.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – none
GPP note – As usual, not a whole lot to love here. Snell is doing fine against lefties but has shown some weakness against righties, so if you must go here, use the righties.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Tatis/Machado, Hosmer, Pham
GPP note – Bumgarner has good pitching in him, but right now his strikeout rate is pretty low (15.5%) and he’s giving up a decent chunk of power to lefties. These guys are in play, especially some contrarian lefties.
Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers
Our Los Angeles game is up next, with Buehler being the stud of this slate. He’ll only need to worry about Ohtani, and maybe Stassi, and will probably breeze through the rest of the lineup. The Dodgers get a bullpen game with the loaded lineup, so it’s not too hard to figure out who has the advantage in this one. It is at least another stacking option to consider that’s not at Coors.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani, Stassi
GPP note – Bad matchup against Buehler who is pretty stingy and has a solid 29.1% strikeout rate. A one-off or something might be about the only thing to find here.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy, Turner, Taylor…really, whoever starts is in play
GPP note – They’ll get a bullpen game after facing Detmers, who will have a tough time against this loaded lineup, as he’s not really striking anybody out or holding anyone down. Stacks of any size are in play here, once again.
Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
We wrap up the day with our showdown slate, featuring a Chicago rivalry. Like has been the story elsewhere, we get one team in a great spot (White Sox), with one in a rough one (the Cubbies). It’s both the pitching and offense, I just don’t see how the Cubs can walk away with this one. As always, be sure to check the coach’s notes page to see how this showdown looks!
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Hernandez, Goodwin, Anderson/Abreu
GPP note – Good matchup against Davies, especially for any lefties or switch-hitters. Expect to focus more on these bats than the Cubs’ for the showdown.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Ortega
GPP note – Pretty tough matchup against Cease and his 32.8% strikeout rate. He is allowing some power to both sides, it’ll just be a matter of if these guys can catch up to him or not. I don’t see them doing a whole lot here, so even contrarian stacks are unappealing.
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Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Tampa Bay Rays – Camden Yards, Jorge Lopez, Baltimore bullpen..it’s hard to find a reason NOT to stack these guys again.
- Toronto Blue Jays – This is a great bounce-back spot for the Blue Jays, as Richards allows a lot of hits and contact, and these guys will be ready to go off after being contained twice yesterday.
- St Louis Cardinals – I don’t have a lot of faith in Bubic or the KC bullpen to hold these guys down, even if they can be pretty volatile. I’d be surprised to see them go the under here.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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