Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/06:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Lance Lynn
- Chris Bassitt
- German Marquez
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Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (-182)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Braves – Kyle Muller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The Nationals got to Nola a bit yesterday but I think they could potentially struggle with Muller, in Atlanta. Muller has some upside and when a team relies on Victor Robles and Alcides Escobar at the top, they aren’t a very dangerous offense. Atlanta cooled off last night when I was high on them but that won’t deter me from going right back to them.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Zimmerman, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against LHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Adam Duvall, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros (-216)
Pitchers:
Twins – Bailey Ober
Astros – Zack Greinke
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The Twins shocked me a bit and got to Valdez in yesterday’s game. I am not sure they have the patience that will be needed to deal with Greinke, despite the fact that Greinke has been really bad at home this season. I thought the Astros would hit Jax hard because he allows so much contact but they did struggle. If I had to guess right this second, I would say that Houston ends up in my top 5 for tonight.
MIN 5-star plays: Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Michael Brantley
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against RHPs this season.
Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics (-260)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Mike Foltynewicz
Athletics – Chris Bassitt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I love this game for pitching purposes, especially Bassitt against whatever it is that you want to call the Texas lineup. Folty has ability but we know there is power in the A’s lineup. He has done a great job against the likes of Olson, Moreland, and Laureano but each is a guy that can have a massive game at any point.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: Starling Marte
4-star plays: Jed Lowrie, Sean Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs this season.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres (-210)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Caleb Smith
Padres – Ryan Weathers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Pretty odd that I don’t like much from a Padres game, especially when facing Arizona of all teams. I don’t think SD is overly strong against LHPs and while I think a mini-stack could be great for GPPs, I am not rushing to plug them into my hand-builds so far. The Arizona lineup is extremely weak overall and should have a few LHBs which isn’t ideal going against an LHP.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carson Kelly
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Ha-Seong Kim, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against LHPs this season.
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Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays (-140)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The big conundrum here, a team like the Blue Jays with a ton of power going against an SP who hasn’t given up many HRs this season. Manoah has been really solid at the MLB level and could do some damage here against a struggling Boston offense. I am not sure if I want to stack Boston at all but a one-off or mini-stack could work. Toronto is always popular as a stack and while I have my reservations with how solid Eovaldi has been, I am not backing off of one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Kike Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-203)
Pitchers:
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Dodgers – David Price
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I wonder if Ohtani plays the OF in game 1 as he just pitched on Wednesday so I am not sure if they will shove him in the OF 2 days later without the DH available. Price has been up and down but he gets a decent match-up in this one. I expect the Dodgers offense to be EXTREMELY popular but that just means I likely try to go overweight.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Justin Upton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against LHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: AJ Pollock, Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Chris Taylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against LHPs this season.
Tampa Bay Rays (-145) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Rays – Ryan Yarbrough
Orioles – John Means
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Despite a higher total, I don’t necessarily love the offenses in this game. Now I will say that I definitely love a one-off from each side based on BvP (Arozarena, Mancini). Both SPs are capable of being strong options but I could see a route where either offense wins you a GPP tonight. The more I think while I type, the more interest I have in a Baltimore GPP stack to try and take advantage of a low-owned group.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against LHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: Trey Mancini
4-star plays: Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against LHPs this season.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (-210)
Pitchers:
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Reds – Wade Miley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Miley is one of the few pitchers that I just can’t stand in baseball because he just breaks my heart every time he’s on the mound. Either I stack against him and he’s solid or throws a no-hitter or I avoid the offense because he tends to control so much and he gives up 6 in 5 innings. With Castellanos back for Cincy, the lineup gets a WHOLE lot better and when they are at home, HRs come into play in bunches.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Kevin Newman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 against LHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: Joey Votto
4-star plays: Jesse Winker, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against RHPs this season.
Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees
Pitchers:
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Yankees – Wandy Peralta
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Sounds like the Yankees will go with a bullpen game but that is subject to change as the day goes on. They have dealt with a bit of a COVID outbreak so we definitely should pay attention. The Yankees offense has awoken a bit and they line up in a great spot against Gonzales tonight. Gallo busted out yesterday and he’s been very good against Gonzales in his career.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against LHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Joey Gallo, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against LHPs this season.
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies (-111)
Pitchers:
Mets – Marcus Stroman
Phillies – Kyle Gibson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. As a baseball fan, I really want to watch this match-up as I have a ton of respect for Stroman and Gibson as pitchers. Both of these offenses are capable of putting up big numbers on any given night but the Mets have struggled of late and the Phillies are lacking consistency.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Jonathan Villar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies (-153)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Rockies – German Marquez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Do we get a Coors game with a total under 10? I guess that’s what happens when we get MIA vs COL in a series. Both SPs are very much in play, especially Marquez when pitching at home. I can’t believe that I don’t want much to do with offenses in Coors but both teams are rather anemic overall.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs this season.
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San Francisco Giants (-102) @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers:
Giants – Logan Webb
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This is a HUGE series for both teams and it should be a lot of fun to watch. I was shocked to see the Vegas line as Burnes is the far better pitcher. With that said, I consider the Giants lineup to be superior to the Brewers’. The return of Belt is only going to help the SF lineup. Milwaukee needs Yelich to return with motivation for the offense to really pick up. Also a big thing to point out is the COVID issue the Milwaukee bullpen has been dealing with.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Buster Posey, Brandon Belt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 against RHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Omar Narvaez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against LHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians (-153)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Matt Manning
Indians – Cal Quantrill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I am really torn on this game as both SPs are guys with pedigree and big things were expected of them at the MLB level but they aren’t getting it done, especially Manning. Manning is considered a top-tier MLB SP prospect but he’s not getting the swing and misses at the MLB level. I could see this game ending up 8-6 so I will look to force myself to stack the offenses even though we know how weak the teams are overall.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season.
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jason Heyward
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
Kansas City Royals @ St Louis Cardinals (-120)
Pitchers:
Royals – Mike Minor
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I absolutely love Wainwright at home and seeing a total of just 7.5 is really enticing. The Royals have struggled a decent amount against RHPs this season while the Cardinals have guys that can hit LHPs fairly well. I have no problem stacking STL, even with a lower team total.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Ryan O’Hearn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against RHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Dylan Carlson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Cincinnati Reds
- Atlanta Braves
- New York Yankees
MLB Dinger of the Day – Randy Arozarena, TB
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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