Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/05:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Sonny Gray
- Framber Valdez
- German Marquez
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Philadelphia Phillies (-157) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Nationals – Joe Ross
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Either I missed it or it’s just worked out strangely but Nola has yet to face the Nationals this season. Nola has been solid but he’s not the same guy when he’s on the road and that’s my big worry. He gets a depleted WSH lineup but he still has to deal with Soto and Bell. Ross can certainly get enough outs to be viable but guys like Segura and Realmuto have crushed him in their careers.
PHI 5-star plays: Jean Segura
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Victor Robles, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros (-260)
Pitchers:
Twins – Griffin Jax
Astros – Framber Valdez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Valdez is going to end up one of my favorite plays on the slate, against my team. I know the Twins have a couple of guys that can hit LHPs but the lineup is just so weak without Cruz in the middle and a hobbled Donaldson. The Astros should be a popular stack going up against a guy who can struggle to get swing and misses.
MIN 5-star plays: Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Mitch Garver
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 against LHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Michael Brantley
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against RHPs this season.
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Cleveland Indians @ Toronto Blue Jays (-190)
Pitchers:
Indians – Triston McKenzie
Blue Jays – Ross Stripling
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. The big thing that stands out for me in this game is that McKenzie has allowed 10 HRs in 33.1 road innings this season. He’s also allowed more HRs to RHBs and that’s a VERY dangerous thing against this TOR squad. Stripling might make my player pool based on the Indians lineup.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Angels (-115) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Angels – Dylan Bundy
Rangers – Spencer Howard
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I hope the Rangers allow Howard to approach 100 pitches in starts as the season winds down because I want to see if his talent translates at the MLB level. With that said, he’s not going to throw 100 pitches in this game as they need to stretch him out. Bundy has been atrocious this season but the Rangers lineup is pretty weak so there’s upside but the floor is really ugly.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jo Adell, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brock Holt, Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (-245)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Wil Crowe
Reds – Sonny Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Gray should be a fairly popular option as we know the Pirates are pretty weak overall. Crowe has flashed some ability this season but he’s also had some struggles with HRs at times. The Reds can hit plenty of HRs, especially when they are at home. Reynolds and Farmer might end up two of my favorite one-offs in this game.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Kevin Newman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: Joey Votto
4-star plays: Jesse Winker, Kyle Farmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs this season.
Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees
Pitchers:
Mariners – Tyler Anderson
Yankees – Nestor Cortes
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Anderson has been solid this season but he takes on a Yankees squad that looks to be heating up. I like their upside in this one as Rizzo has hit him extremely well in a LvL situation. Cortes has been solid as a spot starter but the Seattle lineup has become very pesky. I am sure I will have a Cortes share if the price is right but I have lowered expectations.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ty France, Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against LHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against LHPs this season.
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Mets – Rich Hill
Marlins – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. I am not sure what to do with this game as the Marlins are going to have to find a spot starter for Trevor Rogers, who was put on the Family Emergency List. The Mets offense is capable of putting up runs but the bats have been pretty cold lately. Once the offense starts clicking, you will see guys like Smith and Confortocarrying the offense.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against LHPs this season.
Chicago Cubs @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Cubs – Jake Arrieta
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Ortega
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season (includes the studs traded away).
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Raimel Tapia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs this season.
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San Francisco Giants (-172) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Giants – Alex Wood
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Wood is in a plus spot despite a couple of D’Backs hitters have had success against him. Kelly has been really solid for ARI and he’s a guy that I am a little shocked didn’t get moved at the trade deadline. The Giants have hit RHPs extremely well and Bryant has dominated Kelly in his career.
SF 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Buster Posey, Steven Duggar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 against RHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carson Kelly, Nick Ahmed
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against LHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox (-130) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Martin Perez
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. The Red Sox have struggled the last week or so but they did hit some HRs yesterday against Detroit pitching. Skubal is definitely talented and has more upside than Mize did yesterday because of his K ability. The Tigers are in a sneaky spot because I think Martin Perez is just bad overall. I have no problem stacking either side but despite the 10 total, I think I actually prefer mini-stacks.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Christian Vazquez, Kike Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against LHPs this season.
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox (-203)
Pitchers:
Royals – Daniel Lynch
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The White Sox smacked around Lynch earlier this season, scoring 8 runs in less than an inning against him. Keuchel just allows too much contact to be a guy that I want to get shares of. The Royals are primed for one-offs and mini-stacks in this game while the White Sox are definitely a full-stack candidate.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against LHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Andrew Vaughn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves (-115) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Braves – Touki Toussaint
Cardinals – Wade LeBlanc
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am a fan of Toussaint as he flashes some great stuff but then, like against MIL, he falls apart randomly. I think he could be a sneaky GPP option for us while the Braves lineup is in a great spot against LeBlanc. I should add Soler to the list below as he’s been hitting HRs a lot recently and if he’s in the 2 spot in the lineup, he’s in such a great spot between Albies and Freeman.
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Jorge Soler
4-star plays: Adam Duvall, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against LHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Dylan Carlson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Atlanta Braves
- New York Yankees
MLB Dinger of the Day – George Springer, Toronto
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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