Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/31:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Jameson Taillon
- Walker Buehler
- Blake Snell
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St Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds (-145)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Reds – Sonny Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Another early start in Cincinnati, we should see the Reds put some runs on the board with some solid pitching from Gray. A few of the Cardinals bats have been swinging it well but I don’t really want to attack Gray with much other than Edman at this point. Suarez has had a horrendous season but he’s hit Mikolas really well in his career.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dylan Carlson, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against LHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Undecided
Rays – Ryan Yarbrough
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Christian Vazquez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Joey Wendle, Wander Franco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 against RHPs this season.
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays (-340)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Keegan Akin
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. We saw Vlad Jr wake up yesterday and that could be a kick-start to this Jays’ offense. They are MASSIVE favorites against the weak staff of the Orioles. I will continue to ride them, especially now that Springer is back and deepening the already potent lineup. Mountcastle has been swinging the power bat and makes an interesting one-off for GPPs at what should be pretty low ownership.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against LHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Lourdes Gurriel Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against LHPs this season.
New York Yankees (-121) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jameson Taillon
Angels – Jaime Barria
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Taillon feels like a pretty strong play as the Angels have gone somewhat young with their lineup and Ks can happen. Obviously, there is some volatility when facing Ohtani but I feel like Taillon has a decent route to winning us some GPP money. The Yankees offense feels pretty strong against Barria but their IRT is lower than I would have expected.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Jose Iglesias
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
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Houston Astros (-153) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Astros – Lance McCullers Jr
Mariners – Yusei Kikuchi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. A few of the Astros have hit Kikuchi really well in their careers but he’s an SP that can drive us nuts as he does enough to slow down an offense. I will always be stacking the Astros because of their power upside but I don’t feel like it’s some gigantic lock. McCullers has some nasty stuff and as long as he avoids France-Seager, I feel pretty confident in what he’s capable of doing in this match-up.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against LHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
Philadelphia Phillies (-111) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Phillies – Matt Moore
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I was really shocked to see the Phillies favored with Moore taking the mound. I believe Corbin still has some things in his arm that could be a GPP winning option on this slate. The match-up is less than ideal but he’s capable of doing so much. He does have 19 Ks in 19 innings against PHI this season but he has given up 6 HRs against them. I don’t think the Nationals offense is all that dangerous but Moore isn’t exactly a dominant SP at this point.
PHI 5-star plays: Jean Segura
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .1787 against LHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies (-130) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Rangers – Jordan Lyles
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Marquez continued his rough stretch for COL yesterday and I wonder if Gomber does the same against a weak offense. On paper, Gomber should garner ownership in a plus match-up but I just don’t know that I can trust him at the moment. Lyles might be the sneaky play in this match-up as he went for 25 DK points just 2 starts ago. Gomber did dominate Texas in a start earlier this season, putting up over 27 DK points.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 against LHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Indians – Zach Plesac
Royals – Mike Minor
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Oscar Mercado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against LHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Hunter Dozier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs this season.
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San Diego Padres (-157) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Padres – Blake Snell
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Snell has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 10 starts and has 9+ Ks in 3 of his last 4. That makes me believe he is getting stronger as the season has gone on. He gets a plus match-up as the D’Backs lineup is one of the weakest overall at this point plus he’s had strong success against a bunch of the RHBs in the lineup. Gallen is a frustrating pitcher this season as he flashes the stuff that made him a future ace but then he has games where he looks like a 5th starter. He has allowed 4 HRs in 9.2 innings against SD this season.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr
4-star plays: Trent Grisham, Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carson Kelly, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against LHPs this season.
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Giants – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Giants SP decision as they had a couple of positive COVID tests.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 against RHPs this season.
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets
Pitchers:
Marlins – Undecided
Mets – Trevor Williams
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Alfaro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Jonathan Villar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 over the last week.
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Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-160)
Pitchers:
Braves – Charlie Morton
Dodgers – Walker Buehler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I absolutely love this SP match-up and really hope this game ends up something like 3-2. I understand using one-offs in this one but I just don’t see a reason to do any stacking against both of these SPs. It’s tough to rely on either pitcher in our GPP builds but I do think one, or both, have really strong performances at lower ownership (due to perceived match-up).
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Max Muncy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics (-115) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Athletics – Cole Irvin
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We get a couple of very different LHPs facing off against each other. Skubal has a really strong K ability but he could get hit around a bit by Oakland while Irvin lacks true K upside but he’s smart and he gets the far weaker lineup. I could see it being a game that ends up 5-3 but I also could see a route for the A’s to put up 7 or 8 with a couple of HRs as the Tigers bullpen isn’t a strength.
OAK 5-star plays: Starling Marte
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against LHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Robbie Grossman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against LHPs this season.
Chicago Cubs @ Minnesota Twins (-153)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Zach Davies
Twins – John Gant
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Gant is a wildcard for the Twins as he has flashed an ability to get out as an SP but he also seems to forget how to throw strikes. We know that the Cubs have one of the weakest lineups at this point. The Twins are going to end up in my top 3 due to the fact that they have a few guys that have really hit Davies in their careers plus a guy like Donaldson who is swinging the power bat pretty well right now.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Rafael Ortega
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox (-295)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Bryse Wilson
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am a fan of Wilson’s ability but this feels like a very tough match-up for him as the top half of the White Sox lineup is hitting the ball extremely well right now. Tsutsugo is an HR machine right now for PIT and Giolito can be had by the HR ball due to pitching up in the zone with his fastball, in order to set up his change-up. The White Sox will end up in my top 5 stacks on this slate.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yoshi Tsutsugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 against RHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Yankees
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Minnesota Twins
MLB Dinger of the Day – Vlad Guerrero Jr, Toronto
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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