Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/30:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Luis Garcia
- Robbie Ray
- A.J. Alexy
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St Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds (-180)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jon Lester
Reds – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am really interested in some bats in this game but prefer mini-stacks over full-stacks as I think both sides could struggle some. I don’t think very highly of Lester but being LH’d against CIN is a plus thing. Castillo has thrown the ball fairly well recently but the Cardinals have some guys swinging the bat pretty well.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dylan Carlson, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against LHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against LHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays (-125)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Rays – Luis Patino
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I was shocked to see a total under 9 between Pivetta and Patino. Patino allowed 4 runs in 6 innings against BOS in an earlier start against BOS but Pivetta has dominated TB this season. He has 18 Ks in 16.1 innings while allowing just 3 runs across 3 starts. I am going to go out on a limp and say that this game ends up seeing double-digit runs on the scoreboard.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against RHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Joey Wendle, Wander Franco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 against RHPs this season.
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays (-295)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Chris Ellis
Blue Jays – Robbie Ray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Can we please get the Blue Jays to wake up at the plate? They are going to at some point and I want to be on them yet, but it’s getting really hard to swallow their 2-3 runs per game right now. I think Ray is a strong option on this slate for us and should be fairly popular overall as a MASSIVE home favorite. I do think we might see Bo Bichette start to heat up and then I would imagine Vlad Jr would follow suit.
BAL 5-star plays: Cedric Mullins
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against LHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 against RHPs this season.
New York Yankees@ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Yankees – Corey Kluber/Andrew Heaney
Angels – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Justin Upton, Brandon Marsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs and .180 against LHPs this season.
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Houston Astros (-153) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Astros – Luis Garcia
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Astros have hit Flexen pretty well while Garcia has 11 Ks in 29 PAs against the Mariners. I do think this game has a shot at playing to the under but I also think the Astros are about to go on a run. Alvarez has been rolling at the plate and I do believe he keeps it going as he’s had success against Flexen.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: Kyle Seager
4-star plays: JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
Philadelphia Phillies (-190) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I really like this pitching match-up but I also worry about Wheeler’s road numbers plus his shocking struggles against WSH this season. Now, we probably need to dig deeper into Wheeler because those numbers may have come against the Nationals before they dealt away part of their lineup. Gray has been impressive with the Nationals and I do think he has some success against PHI at home.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Odubel Herrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies (-153) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Rockies – German Marquez
Rangers – A.J. Alexy
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Marquez has struggled over his last few starts but he gets such a plus match-up that I can’t ignore him. I know a couple of the Rangers bats have been rolling at the plate but I just can’t stack them up. Alexy has some really impressive numbers in the minors this season so I am excited to dig into him more as he is really intriguing to me at his DK price point.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andy Ibanez, Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs this season.
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San Diego Padres (-160) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Padres – Chris Paddack
D’Backs – Tyler Gilbert
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I really do not have an idea of what to do with this game. Gilbert no-hit the Padres the last time he faced them and they do struggle mightily against LHPs. Paddack is returning from a decent stay on the IL list but he didn’t make any rehab starts so we have to assume he’s probably held to around 3 innings. I want to believe the Padres wake up but I just don’t know if that happens in this game.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Jurickson Profar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against LHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Carson Kelly
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs this season.
Milwaukee Brewers (-140) @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Giants – Johnny Cueto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This is really tough for me as I think that the Brewers overall lineup is actually weak but they take on an SP that could be lit up at any point. I want to believe the Vegas numbers and target just the pitching here, mainly Burnes, but I also think there’s this sneaky upside hiding in the Brewers lineup in this game.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Lorenzo Cain, Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Buster Posey, Brandon Belt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 against RHPs this season.
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Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-190)
Pitchers:
Braves – Drew Smyly
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I want to believe that the offenses will show up but I can also see both SPs doing enough, especially Urias. In my initial thought, I wondered how many HRs could be hit by RHBs in this game as the Braves have a ton of RH power and the Dodgers just have a ton of power. Smyly would be well down my list of usable SPs while Urias probably finds himself in the middle as he’s just too good to ignore in a tough spot.
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against LHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Trea Turner, AJ Pollock
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 against LHPs this season.
Minnesota Twins (-121) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Twins – Bailey Ober
Tigers – Casey Mize
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This is a stand-alone, make-up game so we can view it as a Showdown slate. I think both SPs are actually in play and would lean Ober, which could be surprising. I think the Twins lineup does a bit more, especially against an SP who allows more contact than he should. Using both SPs in a showdown is totally fine for me even with the total sitting at 9.
MIN 5-star plays: Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Willians Astudillo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Yankees
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Toronto Blue Jays
MLB Dinger of the Day – Nick Castellanos, Cincinnati
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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