Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m mutt18 and I am one of your basketball, football and baseball coaches. We head into the beginning of the week with only 5 games on tap here.
A Look at Pitchers:
Main – For the main, I’m really like Tyler Mahle going up against Miami, as he has had success there already even though he is the top priced option on FanDuel. Jose Berrios is also in a good spot here against DET who K’s at a near 30% rate to RHPs on the year and he’s only 8.5K on FanDuel where he should get plenty of run support as well. Erick Fedde is also coming off his best start of the year and this Mets offense is still pretty cold. Tanner Houck also has some nice K upside here at his price on FanDuel as well.
Main Slate
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies
Here we have Madison Bumgarner and Ranger Suarez going up against each other and this is a tougher matchup for both of them here, as Suarez has been solid but this D-Backs team doesn’t K too often which limits his upside a bit. Bumgarner has been up and down, as well this year, but overall I think this is a decent spot for the Phillies bats, but not a game I’ll be targeting heavily
DBacks 5 star plays – none
DBacks 4 star plays – Marte, Varsho, Calhoun
GPP note – Tough to love them here as the Phillies bullpen behind Suarez is pretty solid
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Segura, Realmuto, McCutchen, Bohm, Torreyes
GPP note – Could be a good spot for their RHBs, but not a priority stack for me.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Kwang Hyun-Kim is going up against Wil Crowe here, and Kim has been pretty solid overall here and this Pirates offense is totally anemic especially after they got shut down by Wainwright last night. I really like the Cardinals bats here today again after they put up 12 last night as they are all swinging a hot stick.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Arenado, Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – O’Neill, Bader, Carlson
GPP note – Really like their bats here especially the lefties
Pirates 5 star plays – None
Pirates 4 star plays – Hayes, Moran, Reynolds
GPP note – Likely gonna be fading here, they’ve just been so bad offensively
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
Here we have Archer going up against Spenser Watkins, and Archer looked really good in his last start but only went 2 innings, I’ll need more confirmation that he’ll go deeper here before I go to him. Watkins has been really bad and this Rays team has been hot over the past 2 weeks and they hit RHPs really really well so they’ll be a team I’m stacking here today.
Rays 5 star plays – Meadows, Lowe
Rays 4 star plays – Cruz, Wendle, Franco
GPP note – Love Brandon Lowe and Meadows in this spot today
Orioles 5 star plays – None
Orioles 4 star plays – Mountcastle, Hays, Mancini, Mullins
GPP note – Solid hedge stack as they can light it up from time to time
Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Indians
I really like Tanner Houck here at this price point, especially on FanDuel where he has a ton of K upside for a small price that helps you pay up for bats. Eli Morgan should be lit up in this one, as the Sox are hot right now because their pitching has been so bad that the offense has been stepping up big time and they’ll need to do so again.
Sox 5 star plays – Martinez, Devers
Sox 4 star plays – Bogaerts, Verdugo, Renfroe
GPP note – Great offense in a good spot here, will be chalky as well
Indians 5 star plays – Reyes
Indians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Reyes, Mercado, Straw, Zimmer
GPP note – They’re hot right now especially in the power department, solid spot as well
Cincinnati Reds @ Miami Marlins
Here we have Tyler Mahle going up against Jesus Luzardo who has been getting destroyed by everyone since he joined the Marlins, and that likely won’t change here as this Reds team is still swinging hot sticks. I really like Mahle here as he’s been dominant at times and this Marlins team K’s a ton to RHPs but he is pricey today especially on FanDuel.
Reds 5 star plays – Votto
Reds 4 star plays – Moose, Farmer, Aquino, Stephenson, Winker
GPP note – You’ll want the Red RHBs here and Votto
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Aguilar, Brinson, Alfaro
GPP note – Decent hedge stack as they can light it up from time to time, but not a team I’ll be targeting heavily.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers
Here we have Jose Berrios going up against Matt Boyd, who is coming off the IL here, and if you know me that is something I want to target with the Jays bats as SPs coming off the IL tend to not be too sharp and that isn’t a good thing against this potent Blue Jays offense. Berrios is a guy I’ll targeting as well on FanDuel as he is too cheap here and has a very good shot at a win here.
Jays 5 star plays – Hernandez, Grichuk
Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero, Semien, Dickerson, Gurriel
GPP note – Smash spot for the Blue Jays here, but I expect them to be chalky
Tigers 5 star plays – None
Tigers 4 star plays – Grossman, Schoop, Haase
GPP note – Not a great spot for the Tigers here, likely fade for me
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
In this one we have Erick Fedde, who is coming off his best start of the year, going up against Tylor Megill, who has been either very good or very bad, no inbetween. Fedde is a guy I’ll take a few shots on in GPPs, as this Mets offense isn’t very good against RHPs and Megill is a guy I’ll take some shots on Megill here as this Nationals offense is diminished outside of Soto since they traded everyone away at the deadline.
Nationals 5 star plays – None
Nationals 4 star plays – Bell, Kieboom, Soto
GPP note – Not an offense I’ll be stacking
Mets 5 star plays – None
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso, Conforto, Smith, Davis
GPP note – Decent option, but not a team I’ll be stacking heavily
San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves
Here we have two SPs coming off the IL in Anthony Desclafani and Ian Anderson, so this is a game I’ll be targeting pretty heavily for stacks, as the Giants have made me a lot of money this year and they are in another good spot here. I’ll be fading the SPs in this game for sure
Giants 5 star plays – Wade Jr., Belt, Crawford
Giants 4 star plays – Posey, Bryant, Yastrzemski
GPP note – Smash spot for the Giants here against an SP coming off the IL
Braves 5 star plays – Riley, Freeman
Braves 4 star plays – Albies, Duvall, Pederson, Soler
GPP note – Will be targeting both these offenses pretty heavily here.
Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox
Here we have the battle of Chicago continuing and the rivalry has brought out the best in the Cubs offense as they’ve put up 20 runs the past 2 games and even lit up Lance Lynn yesterday. Here we have Kyle Hendricks going up against Dylan Cease. I actually really like the Cubs offense again here as no one will be on them and Patrick Wisdom is completely locked in right now
Cubs 5 star plays – Wisdom
Cubs 4 star plays – Contreras, Duffy, Bote
GPP note – Great spot here again as they’ve been hot this series.
White Sox 5 star plays – None
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu, Moncada, Hernandez, Anderson, Grandal
GPP note – Solid option here as Hendricks got blown up last start but overall he has been pretty solid this year.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins
Here we have two gas cans going up against each other in Aaron Ashby and Griffin Jax, both of whom have ERA’s of over 4 and Ashby is still new to the bigs. This is a great spot to target bats as well, especially on the Brewers side as Jax has an ERA of over 6.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Adames, Escobar, Narvaes, Tellez
GPP note – Great spot for the Brewers LHBs
Twins 5 star plays – Donaldson
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler, Garver, Rooker, Sano
GPP note – Donaldson is locked in right now, he’s one of my favorite one offs on the slate
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers
Zack Greinke will be going up against Taylor Hearn here, and this puts the Astros in a very good spot here as they hit LHPs very well and Greinke should cruise in this one as the Rangers offense is pretty anemic right now. Not a game I’ll be targeting heavily here today though.
Astros 5 star plays – Altuve, Brantley, Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Correa, Diaz, Gurriel
GPP note – Astros hit LHPs very well, should be a good spot for them.
Rangers 5 star plays – None
Rangers 4 star plays – Garcia, Lowe, Solak
GPP note – Likely a fade for me here today.
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Senzatela will be going up against Julio Urias here this afternoon, and while I normally would like Urias here, the wild card that is Dave Roberts likely won’t push him too hard here especially if the Dodgers get out to a solid lead early so he’ll be a fade for me. This is another good spot for the Dodger bats as Bellinger is going to come to life at some point in the near future.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Story, Cron, Hampson, Rodgers
GPP note – Not a big stack day for me even against a lefty as Urias is very good
Dodgers 5 star plays – Muncy
Dodgers 4 star plays – Bellinger, Pollock, Turner, Seager
GPP note – Great spot for the Dodger bats again here, stack their LHBs as Senzatela struggles against them.
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Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners
Here we have two soft tossers in Brady Singer and Marco Gonzales going up against one another in what should be a very boring game here. However, with a lefty on the hill again here I will be using Salvador Perez especially as a one off. But this is another game I won’t be targeting heavily.
Royals 5 star plays – Perez
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Alberto, Dozier
GPP note – Decent spot for the RHBs but not one I’m seeking out
Mariners 5 star plays – None
Mariners 4 star plays – France, Seager, Toro, Haniger
GPP note – Decent spot for their LHBs, and the Mariners are always underrated as a stack.
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New York Yankees @ Oakland Athletics
Here we have the night cap of Sunday Night baseball, with the Yankees taking on the A’s in their series finale. We have Jordan Montgomery taking on Paul Blackburn, and both SPs have been solid over their last few starts here. FOr single entry you’re going to want to target the Yankees LHBs, and the A’s RHBs along with Matt Olson who still has an ISO of over .300 against LHPs.
Yankees 5 star plays – Gallo, Stanton
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge, Voit, Odor
GPP note – LHBs are who you want to target as they all could leave the yard here.
A’s 5 star plays – Marte
A’s 4 star plays – Chapman, Olson, Canha, Murphy
GPP note – Stack RHBs as Montgomery has struggled against them and has had a few blow up spots this year.
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Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- St. Louis Cardinals- Going right back to the well here as they put up 12 runs last night and get another bad SP, they are also going up against a taxed Pirates bullpen that was already bad to begin with.
- Tampa Bay Rays – Watkins has been horrible since joining the O’s rotation and this Rays offense is hitting their stride lately, target their LHBs, particularly Lowe and Meadows
- Atlanta Braves – TDesclafani hasn’t been great and is coming off the IL, the Braves also got shut out last night and that never happens two days in a row so this is a prime time to stack them.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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