Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/27:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Aaron Nola
- Steven Matz
- Shane McClanahan
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St Louis Cardinals (-153) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Cardinals – JA Happ
Pirates – Dillon Peters
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Happ has given up just 5 runs in his 4 starts with STL and he gets a PIT team that he was solid against twice over his four. Peters was just solid against STL in his last start but the issue I have is that he just doesn’t pick up many strikeouts despite throwing the ball decently so far. I know Happ should make our player pool but I am intrigued by both of the offenses in this spot.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Tyler O’Neill, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against LHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: Jacob Stallings
4-star plays: Ben Gamel, Michael Chavis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 against LHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Indians
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez
Indians – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. I am seeing that the Indians plan to go with Logan Allen. If that’s the case, the Red Sox are going to be a popular play on this slate. E-Rod really hurt us in his last start and I think he could struggle again as the Indians have seen a bunch of LHPs lately and have put up some runs. Boston will be the chalky stack while the Indians could slide in WELL under the radar.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Amed Rosario, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against LHPs this season.
Tampa Bay Rays (-216) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Rays – Shane McClanahan
Orioles – Matt Harvey
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. The DFS world will be on the Rays in this spot and I can’t fault them. With that said, Havery has held some teams in check this season and that’s frustrated us quite a bit. TB has absolutely demolished Harvey in 2 games this season so that’s going to drive up their ownership. McClanahan is 3-0 in 17 innings against BAL this season, allowing just 5 runs. He’s going to be popular but he is priced up on DK.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against RHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against LHPs this season.
Cincinnati Reds (-145) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Reds – Wade Miley
Marlins – Zach Thompson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Miley looks to be in a strong spot and while I generally hate him, I think we should have some shares. The Reds are generally far more dangerous at home and this park is not the greatest for offensive production. I do think we can use mini-stacks of CIN in our builds but I might stay away from fully stacking them.
CIN 5-star plays: Tyler Naquin
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 against RHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan De La Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against LHPs this season.
New York Yankees (-145) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Athletics – Sean Manaea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Manaea hasn’t looked sharp at all over his last 4 starts and if that carries over, I think the Yankees have sneaky upside in a game with a very low total. They have a few guys who have hit Manaea well or with power in their careers. Cole gets a plus match-up as the A’s can struggle and they have struggled against him in their careers. He’s held Matt Olson to an 0 for 19 with 12 Ks in their match-ups.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sanchez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against LHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs this season.
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Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Royals – Kris Bubic
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. France has been hitting some HRs recently and he lines up really well as do some of his teammates against Bubic. Gilbert has thrown some impressive games during his rookie season but he’s just an OK option for me on this slate as the top of the Royals lineup has been performing really well, especially the power of Perez.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against RHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: Abraham Toro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against LHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
Pitchers:
Nationals – Paolo Espino
Mets – Rich Hill
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against LHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs this season.
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Astros – Jake Odorizzi
Rangers – Glenn Otto
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. This one should be all about Houston for DFS purposes. I just don’t see enough from the Rangers to make them an option, even against a guy who can have some bad performances. Yordan Alvarez, once again, will end up being one of my favorite one-offs against an SP making his debut. Odorizzi will be on my list of SP options as I have focused on attacking teams like TEX with pitching.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andy Ibanez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs this season.
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Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox (-216)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Keegan Thompson
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I will be straightforward here, we probably shouldn’t consider a Cubs stack on main slates at all. I know that I don’t think that Keuchel is very good but this Cubs lineup is extremely weak. We know a couple of guys could surprise here in this match-up but we have enough teams to choose from. The White Sox just put up a bunch of runs on the Blue Jays so they should be a popular stack.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Romine
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against LHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: Yoan Moncada
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162against RHPs this season.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies (-216)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Taylor Widener
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Aaron Nola pitching at home is all I need to know in this one. I will ride him when he’s in Philly against basically anybody at this point. Harper is going to be one of my favorite one-offs on the entire slate and he’s in the running to be my Dong of the Day call. I really don’t want much exposure to ARI, outside of my dude Ketel Marte.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Odubel Herrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs this season.
San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves
Pitchers:
Giants – Kevin Gausman
Braves – Max Fried
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. We need to get the word that the Giants are 100% activating Gausman from the COVID list. He was experiencing side effects from the vaccine so it’s not a situation where he had a positive test. We could see some offense in this game or we seriously could see both SPs throw gems. I lean more towards offense despite my unnatural love for Gausman this season.
SF 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Buster Posey
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Stephen Vogt, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs this season.
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Milwaukee Brewers (-130) @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Twins – Andrew Albers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I actually like the Twins offense slightly more than the Brewers in this one. I think Sano and Donaldson show up with some power and Polanco has been really solid since the Twins traded away Nelson Cruz. It feels a little odd to be on them despite their struggles as a team. The Brewers should put up a few runs so I won’t rule out a mini-stack.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Miguel Sano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Pitchers:
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Dodgers – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. I am seeing some rumblings that the Dodgers will go with Andre Jackson. We would need to learn if they plan to use him as a regular starter or a bulk reliever. This game is all about the Dodgers for me with very little interest in the Rockies. They have a TON of BvP history in their favor against Freeland.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: AJ Pollock
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against LHPs this season.
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Angels – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. I am seeing rumblings that the Angels could roll with Packy Naughton as the SP in this game. He has thrown just 1 inning at the MLB level this season but they may have to turn it over to the young guys just to see what they have for next season. Both of these teams have been a disappointment this year. Musgrove can definitely put up a strong performance against a frustrating Angels lineup.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against LHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs this season.
Aug 26, 2021; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays second baseman Marus Semien (10) is greeted by shortstop Bo Bichette (11) after hitting a two run home run against Chicago White Sox in the sixth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Toronto Blue Jays (-172) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Steven Matz
Tigers – Matt Manning
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. We know that the Blue Jays have been scuffling quite a bit on offense the last half of August but this is a get-right spot in my eyes. Manning has allowed far too much contact for his talent and allowing TOR to make a ton of contact is generally a bad thing for a pitcher. Matz should be fairly popular (he’s in my initial build) on this slate but you can probably use a one-off Tiger somewhere.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Vlad Guerrero Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Boston Red Sox
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Houston Astros
MLB Dinger of the Day – Bo Bichette, Toronto
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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