Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m mutt18 and I am one of your basketball, football and baseball coaches. We head into the beginning of the week with only 5 games on tap here.
A Look at Pitchers:
Early – Options are gonna be pretty limited here on a 3 game slate, but Sonny Gray and Carlos Rodon are going to be your top two options here, even though both have less than desirable matchups against the Brewers and Blue Jays respectively. Those are really the only two guys I’d be interested in here on the early.
Main – For the Main Slate, Chris Sale stands out as the highest priced option on FanDuel, but I’d prefer Scherzer here as Sale will likely still only go 5-6 innings and as we saw in his last start his velocity isn’t all the way back. Zack Eflin is in a good spot against the D-Backs as well, as is Alex Wood against the Mets and their struggling offense. For cheaper options, Elieser Hernandez is taking on a slumping Nationals offense, and Patrick Corbin is on the bump for the other side against that sad Marlins offense as well.
Early Slate
Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles
Angels will be the preferred play for me here, as neither pitcher is good at all, and there should be some runs scored in this game for sure. I give the edge to the Angels offense as this Baltimore team is still in the middle of that giant losing streak.
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Walsh, Fletcher, Stassi
GPP note – Not a lot to love here outside of Ohtani and Walsh, but Akin is really bad.
Orioles 5 star plays – None
Orioles 4 star plays – Mullins, Mountcastle
GPP note – Don’t go crazy here with Orioles, they haven’t been a good team to stack this year unless its against a LHP.
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers
Here we at least have a viable SP in Sonny Gray, as both of these offenses are struggling a bit right now and the Brewers just cruised with Woodruff’s 10 K performance last night. I’m not expecting anything like that from Brett Anderson so this should be a good game for the Reds offense to rebound, especially their RHBs.
Reds 5 star plays – Votto, Castellanos
Reds 4 star plays – Moose, Stephenson, Aquino
GPP note – RHBs are where you’re gonna wanna go for this Reds team, and Votto is good against both.
Brewers 5 star plays – None
Brewers 4 star plays – Wong, Adames, Yelich, Narvaez
GPP note – This will be a hedge type situation in the early slate for sure, as Gray is one of the top options but the Brewers can get it done.
Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Rodon has been dominant this year, but he also hasn’t gotten a lineup like this very often, and Ryu has had his ups and downs as well. However, both of these offenses are geared towards hitting LHPs, so we could see a slug fest in this one, although if I’m leaning one way I’d prefer the White Sox side as Andrew Vaughn seems to homer anytime he sees a LHP.
White Sox 5 star plays – Abreu, Vaughn
White Sox 4 star plays – Anderson, Jimenez, Robert
GPP note – Abreu and Vaughn are their best 2 against LHPs, but should be chalky on a 3 gamer
Jays 5 star plays – Vladdy Jr.
Jays 4 star plays – Hernandez, Grichuk, Gurriel, Bichette
GPP note – Jays are solid against LHPs, but Rodon is one of the better ones so this’ll be a hedge type stack as well.
Main Slate
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies
Here we have Zac Gallen, who is a very good young pitcher, going up against Zack Eflin and this powerful Phillies offense. While I like Gallen in the long term, this is a very difficult matchup for him, and Eflin should cruise here, however, this D-Backs team doesn’t K a ton so I think his upside will be a bit limited there, overall not a game I’m targeting much tonight.
DBacks 5 star plays – none
DBacks 4 star plays – Marte, Varsho, Calhoun
GPP note – Hedge stack only here, on a small slate it could very well work out but this D-Backs offense just isn’t very good.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Segura, Realmuto, McCutchen
GPP note – Tough to love stacking against Gallen, but they’ll be a low owned stack for sure
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Here the great Miles Mikolas will make his 2nd start against this pitiful Pirates offense, who is throwing the human pitching machine on the other side in Mitch Keller. I expect the Cardinals offense to do well here, and while Mikolas still might be on a pitch count he is still pretty cheap here to make him viable, overall I want a good amount of this Cards offense especially their big bats.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Arenado, Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – O’Neill, Bader, Carpenter
GPP note – Very stackable here as Bubic has been bad all season
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds, Hayes
GPP note – Hedge stack only here.
Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox
Here we have Jon Gant with his new Twins team going up against the Red Sox, and the Sox are struggling for wins right now so they are in must win now mode and they have their stud Sale on the mound. I expect them to come out hot here after losing last night in extras and Sale should dominate here from start to finish.
Twins 5 star plays – None
Twins 4 star plays – Rooker, Donaldson
GPP note – Big time hedge stack going up against Sale
Sox 5 star plays – Devers
Sox 4 star plays – Martinez, Bogaerts, Hernandez, Verdugo
GPP note – Good matchup for the Sox offense and they are almost coming to must win time for them.
San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets
The Giants offense is gonna be very stackable here, as Carrasco can’t seem to find it yet, and Alex Wood has been very good this year and the Mets offense is struggling. If he can navigate Alonso and Baez he should cruise here and doesn’t break the bank on either site.
Giants 5 star plays – Wade Jr., Yaz
Giants 4 star plays – Belt, Crawford, Posey
GPP note – Love the Giants LHBs here today.
Mets 5 star plays – Alonso
Mets 4 star plays – Baez
GPP note – You want Alonso or Baez as a mini stack or another RHB for a secondary stack here.
Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Indians
Rangers are really bad against LHPs, and while Hentges isn’t good he should have a decent outing here as the Rangers are never really an offense that explodes. On the other side this is a great matchup for the Indians offense as Lyles has been horrible all year long and they should smash him here tonight.
Rangers 5 star plays – None
Rangers 4 star plays – Garcia, Culberson
GPP note – The Rangers will be a complete fade for me today.
Indians 5 star plays – Reyes
Indians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Reyes, Mercado, Straw, Zimmer
GPP note – Indians are kind of hot right now and Lyles has been horrible all year here, could be a nice low owned stack again here tonight.
Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
Here the Nationals and Marlins go up in what should be another low scoring game as both of these offenses are struggling right now and we have some decent SPs on the mound. Overall this will be a game to target cheap SPs in both Corbin and Hernandez.
Nationals 5 star plays – Soto
Nationals 4 star plays – Robles, Bell
GPP note – Not stacking them barely at all and if I do it’ll be a secondary stack
Marlins 5 star plays – None
Marlisn 4 star plays – Rojas, Aguilar, Brinson
GPP note – Decent mini stack as Corbin has struggled this year, but not one I’m going out of my way to play.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
Dodgers are coming off a big 16 inning win last night and have their ace in Max Scherzer on the mound here tonight going up against Yu Darvish, overall I’m expecting another low scoring game but Yu is coming off the IL, so it could be a solid idea to target this Dodgers offense, especially their LHBs.
Dodger’s 5 star plays – Muncy
Dodger’s 4 star plays – Bellinger, Pollock, Turner
GPP note – Always in play with how dangerous this offense is
Padres 5 star plays – None
Padres 4 star plays – Tatis, Machado, Cronenworth
GPP note – Hedge stack but Max can give up a few long balls here that could make them viable.
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New York Yankees @ Oakland Athletics
Here, Taillon will take on Kaprielian, and both have been really solid in their last few starts, plus add in the pitcher’s park in Oakland here and I think we have a recipe for a low scoring game again tonight.
Yankees 5 star plays – Gallo
Yankees 4 star plays – Stanton, Judge, Voit, Odor
GPP note – LHBs against Kap, but he’s been solid as well.
A’s 5 star plays – Olson
A’s 4 star plays – Chapman, Canha, Moreland
GPP note – LHBs against Taillon, he struggles against them.
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Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners
Here we have a pretty boring night cap here, as neither offense ever gets us excited, but I have some interest in Kikuchi here as he can be dominant at times and this Royals offense isn’t very good or stackable but Perez does kill LHPs, so that’ll be the battle tonight.
Royals 5 star plays – Perez
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Alberto, Dozier
GPP note – RHBs against Kikuchi here
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Haniger, France, Seager
GPP note – Keller hasn’t been terrible, but this Mariners offense is more suited for LHPs to smash.
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Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- San Francisco Giants- Carrasco has an ERA of almost 9, and he can’t get LHBs out to save his life right now, and the Giants are loaded with good ones, especially my guy LaMonte Wade Jr.
- St. Louis Cardinals- Great spot here as Keller and this Pirates pen have been historically bad this year and they’ve been heating up as well, give me all the guys in the middle of that order.
- Cleveland Indians – Great overall matchup here and I don’t believe they’ll be chalky either, but Lyles has been horrible all year long and this offense has been hot over the past 2-3 weeks.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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