Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/24:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Tanner Houck
- Jack Flaherty
- German Marquez
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Arizona Diamondbacks (-111) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Madison Bumgarner
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I actually think this is a sneaky good spot to use pitchers as both offenses are weak enough that we could end up seeing a 4-3 type ballgame. Bumgarner has looked really solid for ARI recently while Brubaker flashes enough for me and he gets a very plus match-up. Ketel Marte will, again, be one of my favorite one-offs on the slate.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Josh Rojas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against RHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .122 against LHPs this season.
Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Indians (-160)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Taylor Hearn
Indians – Eli Morgan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I like the way some of the Indians’ bats are swinging it so I think this is a great spot for them as a stack. Morgan gets a plus match-up but he isn’t some lock at the pitcher position. I will have shares of him as the Rangers lineup is just too weak overall to not.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Andy Ibanez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Amed Rosario, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs this season.
Los Angeles Angels (-140) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Angels – Dylan Bundy
Orioles – Spenser Watkins
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. We get an interesting game here, with such a high total we should be looking at the bats but I kind of want to use Bundy in his return to Baltimore. I know Bundy has been pretty bad this season but he’s flashed his 2020 form recently and a player always has a little more juice in them when they return to where they came from. The Angels bats should be in a decent spot but the issue I have is that their lineup has been pretty bad.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Brandon Marsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (-177)
Pitchers:
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This pitching match-up should end up being the best of the night but there’s always a possibility of struggles from either side due to the opposing offense. Burnes had 12 Ks in his 8.1 innings of shutout baseball against CIN this season while Mahle has 26 Ks in 17.1 innings against MIL this year (but 9 runs allowed).
CIN 5-star plays: Tyler Naquin
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 against RHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: Kolten Wong
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs this season.
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Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros (-240)
Pitchers:
Royals – Brady Singer
Astros – Luis Garcia
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. When will the Astros bats actually wake up? I honestly have no idea at this point but I am going to ride them until they do since I have been on their side a TON recently. Much like Ketel Marte, Yordan Alvarez is at the top of my one-off list on this slate. Garcia has had some strong performances but I think this game is about the bats for me.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against RHPs this season.
New York Yankees @ Atlanta Braves (-145)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Andrew Heaney
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The Braves let me down last night despite getting a shaky Jordan Montgomery. Heaney can give up a ton of hard contact and that’s what we look for in our stacks. The Yankees bats did some damage against a weak ATL bullpen so while Morton is solid, he has been worse at home and the Yankees are winning baseball games right now (10 in a row).
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Brett Gardner, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against LHPs this season.
Washington Nationals (-111) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Marlins – Jesus Luzardo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I thought Luzardo was in a sneaky GPP spot against ATL in his last start and he started out super hot before losing the strike zone in the 4th inning. Maybe I was a start too early on the hype wagon as Luzardo was arguably baseball’s top pitching prospect at one point so the talent is there and now he gets a much better match-up. Fedde has been steady enough that I think he’s a perfectly fine option as a road favorite.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Lane Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jazz Chisholm Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs this season.
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Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays (-125)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Yesterday’s game turned into the pitcher’s duel that we expected between Lynn and Manoah. I believe that this match-up could end up very similar but there’s a bit more volatility to both SPs as they will give up a few runs but there is a ton of strikeout potential in both. I don’t believe that I will be looking to fully stack either side but mini-stacks should be pretty intriguing aiming to hit that rough inning.
CWS 5-star plays: Yoan Moncada
4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs this season.
Tampa Bay Rays (-115) @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Rays – Drew Rasmussen
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Rasmussen has allowed just 1 hit in each of his last 2 starts but he’s only throwing around 50 pitches. IF they let him go 5 innings he becomes an interesting option but the issue I have is that his K numbers take a huge hit in comparison to when he’s a 1-2 inning reliever. Suarez is yet to complete 5 innings as well and his K numbers are lackluster so I do think TB is going to end up one of my favorite stacks.
TB 5-star plays: Mike Zunino
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against LHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Odubel Herrera, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs this season.
San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Giants – Sammy Long
Mets – Tylor Megill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am not sure how to attack this game at first glance. I want to lean towards a pitcher’s duel but Megill has shown some cracks in the armor of late and Long has been bounced around a bit. We could see a game with 4-5 HRs in it and if that’s the case, we definitely want exposure to both sides. I am leaning towards mini-stacks and one-offs more than full-stacks.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: LaMonte Wade Jr, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, JD Davis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against LHPs this season.
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Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics (-153)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Athletics – Cole Irvin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This is another game that I think could be a solid pitcher’s match-up but we could see a handful of HRs. It’s a day game in OAK so we know the ball flies better and we only have to break it down for showdown/single-game purposes. I don’t think either pitcher has the upside to be the top scorer in the game so I am going HR hunting at the top on DK.
SEA 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger
4-star plays: Ty France, JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against LHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: Starling Marte, Matt Olson
4-star plays: Mark Canha, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs this season.
Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox (-219)
Pitchers:
Twins – Griffin Jax
Red Sox – Tanner Houck
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Houck has excellent upside in his arm and he gets a Twins offense that is pretty weak overall. I know they haven’t been striking out all that much but if we get the right lineup, with somebody like Sano in, then his K ability should increase. Jax has been decent at times but this isn’t the match-up as, much like with HOU, I have to stay pot committed with the Red Sox stack and just ride them until they explode.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Alex Verdugo
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against RHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies (-145) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Rockies – German Marquez
Cubs – Justin Steele
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I will be going back to a pitcher in Wrigley tonight. This time it’s going to be Marquez as I just don’t think the Cubs are good enough, despite winning on a walk-off last night after being dominated by Senzatela, of all people. Steele could be decent but he has allowed 3 HRs in his 2 starts. I do like the Rockies against LHPs so it’s not a super easy spot for him.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Garrett Hampson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: David Bote, Rafael Ortega
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Padres – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 over the last 7 days.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against LHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers @ St Louis Cardinals (-203)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Casey Mize
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Flaherty is going to end up one of my favorite pitchers tonight as he has looked strong in his return from the IL and we know that Detroit lacks the depth to their lineup. Mize could be a decent option but I think the Tigers are going to start limiting him to 4-5 innings per start as the season winds down. Goldschmidt is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Victor Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Boston Red Sox
- Cleveland Indians
- Atlanta Braves
MLB Dinger of the Day – Kyle Schwarber, Boston
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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