Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/21:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Max Scherzer
- Eduardo Rodriguez
- Hyun-Jin Ryu
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Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Marlins – Undecided
Reds – Wade Miley
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lewis Brinson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against LHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: Joey Votto, Tyler Naquin
4-star plays: Jonathan India, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs this season.
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-270)
Pitchers:
Mets – Rich Hill
Dodgers – Max Scherzer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This just feels like a spot for the Dodgers to go off but the guys that have faced Rich Hill, haven’t done a whole lot of damage. Scherzer gets the Mets at a great time as they just can’t seem to string hits together at all. Going to gladly roll Scherzer out a TON in my builds.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Chris Taylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against LHPs this season.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies (-145)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. The Vegas information says to attack this game with bats but what if I told you I wanted to be sneaky and use the SPs? Yeah, I would call myself crazy as well but I just think that both guys are capable of putting up performances that surprise in this game, especially at their price points. I will say that there is some pretty solid BvP in the D’Backs favor today.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Nick Ahmed
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
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Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros (-157)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Astros – Jake Odorizzi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I honestly could see this game going with 12-13 runs but I also could see it ending up 4-3 as both SPs have shown the ability to shut down opposing offenses. My first guess is that we want bats in this game more than the SPs but it’s close enough that I don’t mind playing both sides. Alvarez has always been one of my favorite one-off bats.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Seager, Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Jake Meyers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against RHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves (-195) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Braves – Drew Smyly
Orioles – Matt Harvey
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. We get a very chalky ATL offense against the artist formerly known as The Dark Knight. It is really tough to contain my excitement as RHBs could give Harvey fits in this spot while the LHBs offer plenty of upsides as well. Smyly isn’t an arm that scares me so I do think a BAL mini-stack is very viable on this slate.
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against RHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: Jorge Mateo
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs this season.
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Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays (-130)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Rays – Luis Patino
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I really want to believe we see a bunch of offense in this one. Cruz has crushed Keuchel in his career and Zunino has hit a couple of bombs off of him as well. On the White Sox side of things, there are a few guys swinging it really well and they could make it rough on Patino. I am going to build as if this game gets to double-digits by the end of it. Just a matter of picking the side you think does the most damage but right now I lean TB.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Zack Collins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Mike Zunino, Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against LHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers (-216)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Paolo Espino
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I don’t think I want to fully stack either side but I do like a couple of one-offs or mini-stacks in this game. Because of that feeling, I guess we need to consider both SPs but I don’t feel very confident in either one being a GPP winner today. Espino has been decent but the Brewers just manage to score runs against everybody. Lauer can be solid and this may be a solid match-up for him as long as he avoids Soto and whoever plays 1B for Washington.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Josh Bell or Ryan Zimmerman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against LHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs this season.
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San Francisco Giants (-121) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Giants – Kevin Gausman
Athletics – Sean Manaea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. What an interesting SP match-up we get in this one, during the day in Oakland. Manaea has struggled of late but I can see him stepping up and figuring things out a bit. Gausman has been spectacular for the Giants but Marte has dominated him. I definitely prefer the pitching but I can get behind a one-off on both sides and the trends say a Giants stack could be the move in GPPs.
SF 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Buster Posey, Wilmer Flores
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against LHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: Starling Marte
4-star plays: Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs this season.
Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees (-216)
Pitchers:
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Cole should be a popular option as he should dominate this Minnesota lineup. I am stuck trying to figure out how to attack the other match-up in this game. If Maeda was 2020 Kenta Maeda, I would love to use him in a spot where I think the Yankees carry decent ownership. The problem is that he isn’t pitching like 2020 Maeda at this point. He is definitely capable of doing enough to make a Yankees stack worthless but I do think he allows an HR or two in this game.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Joey Gallo
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Indians (-125)
Pitchers:
Angels – Reid Detmers
Indians – Triston McKenzie
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We have seen both of these SPs struggle but we have also seen them step up with solid-strong performances. I love the spot for McKenzie as he allows most of the power against him to come from RHBs and the Angels just don’t have much for RH power at this point. Detmers surprised a bit in his last outing and that could continue here but I do like a mini-stack of the CLE bats.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Amed Rosario, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St Louis Cardinals (-190)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Dillon Peters
Cardinals – JA Happ
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I wish the Pirates had more pop in their lineup as I would love to stack against Happ but I believe that’s just a donation waiting to happen. I can’t believe how Goldschmidt has fallen off against LHPs this season, rocking an ISO of just .087. Arenado should be fairly popular but I might end up higher on Tyler O’Neill and his power in my GPP builds.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hoy Park, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 against LHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Tyler O’Neill
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against LHPs this season.
Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox (-350)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Jordan Lyles
Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. This game should be ALL about the Red Sox. The issue is that they haven’t been a sharp team of late. With that said, E-Rod is in such a great spot while I think the offense wakes up a bit. I am going to predict 3+ HRs hit by the Red Sox in this one and E-Road is going to pick up 8+ Ks as well. No reason to look at the Rangers side, in my opinion.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Isiah Kiner-Falefa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against LHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against RHPs this season.
Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres (-177)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We should get a pretty strong pitching match-up in this one but the question is, which Aaron Nola shows up? He’s such a different pitcher when he’s on the road that I just don’t think we can trust him against a dangerous Padres lineup. Musgrove loves pitching in SD and he could definitely be the sneaky GPP pitcher of the slate.
PHI 5-star plays: Jean Segura
4-star plays: Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wil Myers, Fernando Tatis Jr.
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against RHPs this season.
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago Cubs (-111)
Pitchers:
Royals – Kris Bubic
Cubs – Keegan Thompson
Rundown:
Waiting to see the game total. The Royals could be without their top hitter, Salvador Perez, as he left yesterday’s game. If we find out that the wind is going to be blowing in and the total is lower, I think either SP could be viable. The issue I have is that I just don’t think we find out what kind of pitch count Thompson could be on. Bubic hasn’t been very good this season but he’s flashed enough to make me believe that he could shut down a very weak Cubs lineup.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Frank Schwindel, Matt Duffy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against LHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays (-255)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Wily Peralta
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Ryu feels like a strong overall play against this Detroit squad. I know they can be annoying and they can frustrate us when we use SPs against them but Ryu should still offer us a pretty solid floor. The Blue Jays bats are in a very strong spot and I think we could see a bit of a breakout for them against Peralta.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against LHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Corey Dickerson, Lourdes Gurriel Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Boston Red Sox
- Atlanta Braves
- St Louis Cardinals
MLB Dinger of the Day – Nelson Cruz, Tampa Bay
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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