Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We head into the end of the weekend with an 11-game main slate, as well as 4 late/afternoon matchups. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get a handful of decent pitching options across the board, as well as a handful of softer ones to target with some stacks. For cash games, guys like McCullers and Buehler should attract some attention. For tournaments we have some nice options as well, like Sale (who will probably get 10+ strikeouts), Fried, Giolito, and Ray. There’s no shortage of strikeout upside today!
Early slate
Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs
We’ll kick things off with our early showdown between the Royals and Cubs. Honestly, both teams are in about the same scenario here; both starting pitchers can be pretty good or pretty bad, and it really just depends on which version shows up. Be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to get an idea of where to look.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Perez
GPP note – Not much BvP here, though Perez has one homer in three tries against Davies
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Ortega, Bote, Heyward
GPP note – Not much BvP here either, and weaker choices overall
Main slate
Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees
We’ll switch over to the main slate next, with the Twins and Yankees. The Twins have some good players, but they aren’t crushing lefties at the moment. Cortes does allow some hits, but I’m not sure if they can really get to him. As for the Yankees, they’re in a pretty good spot here, so be sure to have some exposure to them.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Polanco, Donaldson
GPP note – These guys aren’t hitting lefties very well right now, so their upside could be limited
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge/Stanton, Rizzo/Gallo, LeMahieu
GPP note – Good traditional splits against Barnes, so I expect to see a homer or two here
Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles
We head to our Camden Yards game next, with the Braves and Orioles. The Braves can be a pain to get right, but on paper they’re in an excellent spot here, so let’s see what they can do with it. Not so much for the Orioles though, as Fried has been pretty solid, and I think he can keep them down in this one.
Braves 5 star plays – Freeman
Braves 4 star plays – Soler, Swanson, Albies/Riley
GPP note – Weak pitching and Camden Yards, this is the standard recipe for a team to go off, but they won’t be sneaky
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Hays, Severino
GPP note – Not a great matchup against Fried, but they are at least playing at home in Camden Yards, so you could roll out a few darts here just in case
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays
The Tigers and Blue Jays are next, with the Tigers coming in from a game where they scored some runs, but wound up blowing an 8-run lead. Ouch. I don’t think they’ll get that chance again, as they’ll have to face Ray, who has been pretty solid. It’s the opposite for the home team, as they’ll be in a good spot to do some damage.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Cabrera, Grossman, Reyes/Castro
GPP note – Bad matchup against Ray, but these guys do still have some life in them, so a few random secondary stacks couldn’t hurt
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero/Hernandez
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Semien, Bichette
GPP note – Good matchup against Alexander who is fairly soft to both sides of the plate, so big stacks are in flavor here
Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds
We head to yet another hitter-friendly ballpark next, and again, I don’t like the visitor’s chances a whole lot. The home team looks good though, as they get a good matchup and I think they can keep pace with some other stacks, like the Yankees or Braves.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Aguilar, Chisholm
GPP note – Gray has some big reverse splits, so if nothing else, consider a righty here for a one-off bomb
Reds 5 star plays – Votto
Reds 4 star plays – Moustakas, India, Castellanos
GPP note – Big reverse splits here too, as well as a hitter-friendly ballpark, so let’s see how they rack up some runs
Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
The White Sox and Rays are up next, and at first glance this one is a little tough to get a good feel for. Both offenses are potent, but the big difference is the pitching. Giolito is generally pretty solid, though Wacha has really struggled as of late. I think the White Sox can get the early jump, but depending on how long Giolito lasts, the Rays might have a chance to get back into this one in the later innings. Game stack?
White Sox 5 star plays – Abreu
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert, Anderson, Jimenez/Moncada
GPP note – Wacha has nearly identical splits to both sides of the plate (and they’re bad; about .390 xwOBA, .425 wOBA, and .260 ISO), so this entire lineup is in play to attack him
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe, Franco, Meadows
GPP note – Bad matchup against Giolito, though he does allow some decent power to righties
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Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox
I’m not even a Boston fan, but I just love seeing Chris Sale back in action. I hope he strikes out everybody, but realistically, I think 8-10 k’s are coming. His opponent doesn’t have near the strikeout stuff, so I don’t see the Rangers having much going for them in this one.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – none
GPP note – This is a good spot for these guys to get annihilated, so I can’t really recommend playing them
Red Sox 5 star plays – Bogaerts
Red Sox 4 star plays – Martinez, Devers, Schwarber
GPP note – Dunning doesn’t strike out many batters and has slightly worse traditional splits, so there should be plenty of contact made here
Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Indians
The Angels and Indians are up next, and I think the visitors will be coming in hot with some momentum. They’ll be ready to jump on Hentges, so we’ll see if the Indians can do anything to keep up. This could turn into a game stack option, but if nothing else, the Angels have a good chance to go off again.
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Fletcher, Upton, Iglesias
GPP note – Hentges allows plenty to both sides and doesn’t have scary strikeout upside, so this is a good spot for the Angels to get a quick jump
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Zimmer
GPP note – While this is a good spot for the Indians, they aren’t hitting righties all that well outside of the two listed above. Perhaps small/medium stacks might be best
Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers
Up next are the Nationals and Brewers, a game featuring a pair of not-so-consistent pitchers. I don’t know that either has elite upside, but both can certainly drop a big dud, so by default that puts both offenses in play.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto/Bell
GPP note – Anderson is a little hit-or-miss, so that could give a couple of these guys a chance at a big hit or two. I don’t know that big stacks would be the answer, though
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Adames/Garcia, Yelich
GPP note – Corbin has big traditional splits (.428 wOBA / .362 ISO to righties over the last month), so taking a handful of righties against him isn’t a bad idea
Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
It’s Kikuchi vs McCullers next, and even though the Houston offense has been cold, I think they’ll grab this one. Kikuchi has been decent, and has some good strikeout stuff, but he’s allowing just enough that I think a couple Houston bats can get a good hit or two to seal this game for them.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Seager, Kelenic
GPP note – Bad matchup against McCullers, though he does allow a little bit of power to lefties. I doubt it’s enough for these guys to do a whole lot, but they won’t have any ownership
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve, Alvarez, Correa
GPP note – Big traditional splits here (.440 wOBA / .286 ISO to lefties), though he does sport a 29.4% strikeout rate recently. That, and with how the Astros have been since the break, I think small/medium stacks might be best here
Pittsburgh Pirates at St Louis Cardinals
We get the Pirates and Cardinals next, with Mikolas returning to action. I have no idea what to expect from him here, though he does at least get a good opponent to start with. The Cardinals, however, are in a pretty good matchup, but they sure like to drop duds in great spots. Everyone else hates stacking them too, so perhaps their ownership won’t be very high.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds
GPP note – Not sure where Mikolas is since this is his first game back, but I don’t know that they’re going to have a field day with him or anything. Maybe a few random stacks could be useful
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 4 star plays – Edman/O’Neill, Molina
GPP note – This is a really good spot for the Cardinals, the question is can they take advantage of being in such a good spot this time, or will they stop at 1 run again? If nothing else, Molina just doesn’t strike out, so he should have some good chances to do something
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
We get our Coors game next, and all things considered – call me crazy – but I like the visitors more here. They get a dream matchup, and I think they can get scrappy and get some trains running. Gilbert is coming off a gem, and while I doubt he repeats that performance, he will be coming in with a lot of momentum and confidence, which could help him overcome having to pitch here.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays -Marte, Kelly, VanMeter
GPP note – Coors and Gomber is a good mix for any team, even the Diamondbacks, so don’t be afraid to stack them
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Story, Blackmon, Cron
GPP note – Coors is always chalky, but Gilbert has been pretty solid. If he can keep that going with a trip to Denver, perhaps he could keep this team down for a bit
San Francisco Giants at Oakland Athletics
The Giants and Athletics are up next, in another game with some inconsistent pitching. I do think these two have more upside than what we could get from Corbin/Anderson, so this is at least a decent place to place some hedge bets/lineups.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt/Posey/Bryant, Crawford, La Stella
GPP note – Some reverse splits here, and Kap’s strikeout rate isn’t super high, so I could see some hits getting strung along here. Medium-ish sized stacks sound good
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Olson, Chapman, Canha
GPP note – Wood can throw a good game, but he is allowing a fair amount to lefties (.228 ISO), so stacking against him isn’t out of the question. I do think smaller/medium sized stacks would be best, though
Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres
It’s more of the same here; two pitchers that can be pretty good or pretty bad, but I will say that Snell might finally be living up to what we remember of him. He’ll have a decent shot at another strong outing here, and seeing that the Padres need some wins, I expect him to give it a strong effort. Depending on which Moore shows up, we could see some life out of the San Diego bats, but that remains to be seen.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays -Harper, Realmuto/McCutchen
GPP note – Snell seems to be getting back on track, and the Padres need wins, so I don’t think that stacking big here is the answer. Maybe a righty or two and get out?
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Tatis, Machado, Myers, Grisham
GPP note – Some decent reverse splits against Moore (.430 wOBA / .308 ISO), as well as .197 ISO to lefties. As I mentioned, these guys need to win some games, so perhaps they can do something with the decent spot they’re in here
New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers
We’ll cap the night off with the Mets and Dodgers, a game where we get two pitchers that we expect to pitch like studs, but only one of them is doing so at the moment. That would be Buehler, who gets a good matchup here, and I expect him to control the flow of this game for a while. Carrasco, however, with all the upside we know he has, he’s just not showing it right now. I’d be surprised to see him get back to that against this offense, but hey, you never know!
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso, Conforto
GPP note – Bad matchup against Buehler, so it’s hard to see them doing a ton here. Maybe a one-off or mini-stack, but probably not much else.
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Pollock, Seager, Muncy, Turner
GPP note – Carrasco has looked rough in his return, so it’s not a bad idea to attack him again here…if you can afford to. These bats are not cheap!
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Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves – A Camden Yards game against a soft pitcher/bullpen, with several bats that can do some damage. What’s not to love?
- New York Yankees – A pretty good matchup against a soft pitcher, I think we’ll see a bomb or two or three here.
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Any team could benefit from the Coors/Gomber/Rockies bullpen combo…even these guys. They’re cheaper than their opponents, so stacking them shouldn’t be too hard.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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