Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/18:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Freddy Peralta
- Charlie Morton
- Marco Gonzales
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Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Cubs – Adrian Sampson
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Mahle should be one of the most popular plays on the early slate as he has been extremely strong and this Cubs offense has been the extreme opposite of strong. Sampson isn’t eligible to be used on either site as far as I can tell. The Reds’ offense is always in play, especially at their home ballpark. They did lose a big piece of their order when Winker went on the IL.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Ortega
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: Joey Votto
4-star plays: Jonathan India, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs this season.
New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants (-145)
Pitchers:
Mets – Tylor Megill
Giants – Anthony DeSclafani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Megill hasn’t been as sharp recently and it coincided with me finally giving in and believing he might just be a really strong SP. He gets a tough spot against a Giants team that leads baseball in HRs and in a park that plays smaller during the day. DeSclafani has had an interesting season but if you take out the Dodgers games, he’s been really good. We know the Mets offense is struggling a ton so he should be fairly popular for early GPPs.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .200 against RHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves (-203) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Braves – Charlie Morton
Marlins – Jesus Luzardo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Seeing a total this low makes me feel really good about Morton and it gives me some deep GPP interest in Luzardo. Morton has 26 Ks in 22.1 innings against the Marlins this season and he’s been far better away from ATL. It is really tough to want to use Luzardo but I really do believe in the talent. It’s just a matter of him regaining confidence in himself. I do believe we should have ATL fairly highly ranked in our stacks.
ATL 5-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Adam Duvall, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against LHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jazz Chisholm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs this season.
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Houston Astros (-172) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Astros – Zack Greinke
Royals – Brady Singer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The Astros bats have cooled off a bit to begin this week but this could be a spot to wake up just a little as they are definitely better against RHPs. While Greinke is a solid enough favorite to want to use, I just don’t see the upside in actually using him in our builds. Yordan Alvarez has always been one of my favorite plays overall.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Aledmys Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against RHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Pitchers:
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Dodgers – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 against LHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Max Muncy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 against RHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
Indians – Zach Plesac
Twins – Lewis Thorpe
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. I assume the Twins haven’t officially announced Thorpe as the starter and that’s the Vegas hang-up. I think the Indians could be a sneaky stack for us against Thorpe. We know that Ramirez can destroy any pitcher he sees and Rosario has been really solid in the 2-spot. You can add Straw, Reyes, and somebody like Mercado to them and make an interesting 5-man GPP stack.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against LHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Max Kepler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs this season.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers:
Orioles – Spenser Watkins
Rays – Louis Head/Ryan Yarbrough
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 against RHPs this season.
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San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Padres – Jake Arrieta
Rockies – Chi Chi Gonzalez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 14. I will be honest, this is the highest total I ever remember seeing in a baseball game. How fair is this to Jake Arrieta? He’s had a miserable season with the Cubs and they released him because they are just going to go younger to see what they have. A team like SD, who is vying for a playoff spot, jumps on him but they run him out there in Coors for his first start. It honestly wouldn’t shock me to see him put up a respectable start as a bit of an F You to the Cubs.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Jake Cronenworth
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics @ Chicago White Sox (-190)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Cole Irvin
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I really think that Irvin is in for a long day as the White Sox have some guys swinging the bats really well and they have hit LHPs hard all season long. The A’s might have their minds on Bassitt a bit as he took a line drive off of the head in yesterday’s game and I wouldn’t blame them at all. There’s some decent BvP for the A’s against Lynn but I just don’t see them doing a ton of damage.
OAK 5-star plays: Mark Canha
4-star plays: Josh Harrison, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu, Luis Robert
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against LHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees (-111)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Yankees – Andrew Heaney
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. We could see some fireworks in this game after yesterday’s ho-hum doubleheader. Heaney just hasn’t looked great for the Yankees or for much of this season so far and the Red Sox have some guys that can torment LHPs. Pivetta started the season out extremely well but he’s started to show some HR issues. He does have the K upside we covet in our GPP builds but I just don’t think he’s worth the risk, at first glance.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
Toronto Blue Jays (-172) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Nationals really ruined my lineups last night as they stuck it to Manoah and the Blue Jays. I want to be right back on the Blue Jays starter in this one, Berrios, but his last start doesn’t give me a ton of confidence. We know the Nationals lineup isn’t very dangerous so he should carry some ownership. The Blue Jays bats are always in play for me. Gray has given up 9 HRs in 24 innings at the MLB level this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Angels (-135) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Ohtani is in a great spot against this DET squad as there should be some Ks for him. I wanted to be bold and call Cabrera’s 500th career HR today but I didn’t realize he was facing Ohtani. Skubal is in an interesting spot as the Angels lineup is fairly strikeout heavy with the likes of Adell, Walsh, and Marsh.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jo Adell, Justin Upton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 against LHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs this season.
Milwaukee Brewers (-115) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. We get another excellent SP match-up in this series as Flaherty looked solid in his return from the lengthy IL stint. Peralta threw 7 innings of 1-hit baseball against the Cardinals earlier this season and racked up 8 Ks. He’s capable of doing that again as his stuff has been spectacular all year. Flaherty shut down the Brewers back in May as he fired 6 shutout innings. Peralta is the obvious choice but I do think that Flaherty has some upside.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs this season.
Seattle Mariners (-172) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Rangers – Mike Foltynewicz
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I really don’t like much about this game but Gonzales is in a plus spot while the Mariners are the better offense. I haven’t been picking on Folty much as he’s been doing just enough to hold teams off but his K numbers have been really low so he’s just not an option either. Crawford has taken Folty deep 3 times in his career so that’s where I might look for a one-off.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Abraham Toro, JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Trevino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against LHPs this season.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
D’Backs – Humberto Castellanos
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Didi Gregorius
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Carson Kelly
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Chicago White Sox
- Boston Red Sox
- Tampa Bay Rays
MLB Dinger of the Day – Luis Robert, CWS
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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