Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/17:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Alek Manoah
- Kyle Gibson
- Corbin Burnes
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Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds (-153)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Reds – Vladimir Gutierrez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Reds have hit Hendricks decently well in their careers but they did receive a big blow by having to put Winker on the IL yesterday. The Cubs lineup is extremely bad and they just keep losing. Gutierrez should be worth a share or two because of how weak the lineup is. Look for India and Votto to stay hot at the plate in this one.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Ortega
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: Joey Votto
4-star plays: Jonathan India, Aristides Aquino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs this season.
New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants (-157)
Pitchers:
Mets – Marcus Stroman
Giants – Logan Webb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I like the pitching match-up in this game as both guys are strong enough to hold down the opposition but are names that guys don’t auto plug into their builds. Stroman can be frustrating at times and we know the Giants lead baseball in HRs so there is some GPP upside in stacking the Giants offense. I can’t recommend the Mets offense as a stack right now with how cold they have been as a whole.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Alex Dickerson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .200 against RHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves (-125) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Braves – Huascar Ynoa
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Ynoa is making his return from the IL and if we find out that he’s going to be allowed to throw enough, he makes perfect sense as a strong SP on this slate. Alcantara is a steady arm, especially at home but the issue here is that the Braves offense is absolutely rolling at the plate, especially with the HR ball. Power is something that slumps but it also stays extremely hot for long stretches so I side with the Braves offense over Alcantara right now.
ATL 5-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs this season.
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Houston Astros (-157) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Astros – Framber Valdez
Royals – Daniel Lynch
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. As much as I love Framber Valdez as a pitcher, I think Merrifield-Perez should be one of the highest-owned mini-stacks on the slate. On the other side, the Astros’ offense should be in a plus spot against Lynch. They have a few guys who have been struggling some but there is plenty of power in the lineup and a few guys that have hit LHPs extremely well.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against LHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against LHPs this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-295)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Wil Crowe
Dodgers – David Price
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Price lines up to be in a very plus spot as a massive home favorite. We know that the Pirates overall lineup is extremely weak and with Price being a veteran, he shouldn’t look past this opponent. The Dodgers offense was a bit off last night as I pointed out the possibility in this article as they played late Sunday night and had to travel across the country. I would look for them to wake up a bit here as Crowe allows some power to RHBs.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 against LHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Max Muncy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 against RHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins (-145)
Pitchers:
Indians – Eli Morgan
Twins – Bailey Ober
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. At first glance, I really am not sure what I want to do with this game. I think both offenses are in plus spots but they aren’t exactly dangerous lineups at this point. We might just want to use some mini-stacks from both sides and move onto some of the more potent offenses on this slate. I think either SP could surprise but I am not in a hurry to play either of them.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against RHPs this season.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays (-195)
Pitchers:
Orioles – John Means
Rays – Drew Rasmussen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. A few of the Rays have hit Means extremely well despite their overall struggles against LHPs. Looks like the Rays will go with an opener for a few innings in Rasmussen and then what they do is really up in the air at this point. I do like a Rays stack and I wouldn’t be afraid to include an LHB like Lowe or Meadows if they are in the middle of the lineup.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Manuel Margot
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against LHPs this season.
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San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies (-120)
Pitchers:
Padres – Matt Strahm
Rockies – German Marquez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11. The Padres are going to go with a bullpen game and that causes a lot of frustration as their pen is generally pretty strong and it allows the manager to match up based on upcoming hitters. Marquez has been really good at home this season so I am not in a rush to jam Padre’s stacks into my builds. With that said, there is some solid BvP on their side so we definitely are going to want to add them to our top 7 or so stacks on the slate.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Jake Cronenworth
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Brendon Rodgers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against LHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics (-115) @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Athletics – Chris Bassitt
White Sox – Reynaldo Lopez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am really intrigued by this match-up but I also am really lost on how to attack it from a DFS standpoint initially. Bassitt has been spectacular all season long and could feed off of how Montas looked last night. We know the White Sox have a dangerous offense but they are prone to rough stretches and this could be one of them. Lopez is being lengthened out a bit at the MLB level and while his stuff has looked excellent, I expect a hiccup at some point. I am not saying tonight as I haven’t had a chance to dig in yet but it’s always possible against a powerful lineup like OAK.
OAK 5-star plays: Mark Canha
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox (-135) @ New York Yankees – Game 1
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Tanner Houck
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Remember that this game is a 7-inning contest.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against LHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Rougned Odor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox (-135) @ New York Yankees – Game 2
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Yankees – Luis Gil
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. Remember that this game is a 7-inning contest.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 against RHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
Toronto Blue Jays (-203) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Manoah is going to end up one of my favorite SPs on this slate as the Nationals lineup is weak overall. He just has to avoid Soto and he should have a pretty strong performance for us. We know how dangerous the Blue Jays lineup is and if you are an avid reader of this article, you know that they basically end up in my top 3 on a daily basis.
TOR 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Bo Bichettee
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers (-121)
Pitchers:
Angels – Dylan Bundy
Tigers – Casey Mize
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. This is another game that I am at a loss for words about. Both SPs are capable enough, especially against weaker offenses but they also can be hit around a bit. Mize hasn’t racked up the strikeouts and that’s dangerous against any MLB team. Bundy just seems lost on the mound this season but he did show his ability against Texas recently. I do think Bundy has more upside but the Tigers offense has performed slightly better, as a whole, recently.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jared Walsh, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs this season.
Milwaukee Brewers (-153) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. We get an excellent SP match-up as Burnes has been great this season while Wainwright has done great things at home. Wainwright has also had some solid success against the Brewers bats while Burnes has been decent against most of the Cardinals lineup. I don’t see a reason to be on either offense but I can see using guys as one-offs in our builds to be a little different.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Avisail Garcia, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs this season.
Seattle Mariners (-145) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Mariners – Tyler Anderson
Rangers – Spencer Howard
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This is one of those games that I generally just cross off my list after I dig into everything. It just feels like a game that ends 5-4 without any huge performances. With that said, I do think there are a couple of guys below that can be strong one-offs to make our other stacks work. France is swinging a hot bat and Garcia has all sorts of power upside.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ty France, Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: Adolis Garcia
4-star plays: Isiah Kiner-Falefa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against LHPs this season.
Philadelphia Phillies (-120) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Phillies – Kyle Gibson
D’Backs – Undecided
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We do not know what the D’Backs will do at SP but the Phillies offense has struggled over the last week. That’s enough to keep me off of them, other than a one-off like Harper or even Gregorius at a depressed price point. Gibson is going to be one of my guys against this weak D’Backs lineup despite the fact that a few have hit the ball really well over the last week.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Didi Gregorius
GPP Note: Team ISO of .096 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Josh Rojas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Cincinnati Reds
- Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB Dinger of the Day – Joey Votto, Cincinnati
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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