Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m mutt18 and I am one of your basketball, football and baseball coaches. We head into the beginning of the week with only 5 games on tap here.
A Look at Pitchers:
Main – Lucas Giolito is gonna be the top pay up option here, but I think my favorite is gonna be Sean Manaea as this Rangers offense just looks completely lost right now especially against LHPs. Eduardo Rodriguez is also in a good spot if he can navigate Hays and Mancini, and I really like Eric Lauer for value as well.
Main Slate
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals
ATL is heavily favored here as Drew Smyly takes on Paolo Espino, I don’t have a ton of faith in the Nationals bats here outside of Soto, and even he isn’t very good against lefties. I’ll be targeting the Braves and that potent offense heavily here today.
Braves 5 star plays – Riley, Freeman
Braves 4 star plays – Albies, Duvall, Pederson
GPP note – Big time bats here for the Braves but they’ll likely be a bit chalky.
Nationals 5 star plays – None
Nationals 4 star plays – Bell, Kieboom, Soto
GPP note – Don’t go crazy here with Nationals, not a good spot for them
Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies
Here we have some SPs we can target as we have Sonny Gray going up against Aaron Nola in what should be a very good game, love both sides of the ball here and there can even be some hedge stack opportunities I think especially with the Phillies.
Reds 5 star plays – Votto, Winker
Reds 4 star plays – Moose, Farmer
GPP note – Nola is very good but the Reds offense is still white hot here
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Segura, Realmuto, McCutchen, Bohm, Torreyes
GPP note – Phillies are a pesky lineup especially near the bottom of that order, they shouldn’t be as chalky as the Braves and they can get to Gray here
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Eric Lauer is taking on Dillon Peters here, and I want to be targeting Lauer here as the Pirates just went off last night and I don’t see that happening again here. I will want a good amount of Brewers bats here going up against Peters who is making his season debut which is something to take advantage of.
Brewers 5 star plays – None
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Adames, Escobar, Narvaes, Tellez
GPP note – Will be chalky I think here, but not as bad as some other teams, I prefer the RHBs here.
Pirates 5 star plays – None
Pirates 4 star plays – Hayes, Moran, Reynolds
GPP note – Pirates are not good against LHPs.
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
Sox just put a beatdown on this Orioles team yesterday and now get to face Keegan Akin and the Sox crush LHPs, Eduardo Rodriguez is on the bump for the Sox as well and he’s been pitching much better since the All-Star Break and gets to face a pretty weak lineup here outside of Mancini who crushes LHPs.
Orioles 5 star plays – None
Orioles 4 star plays – Mountcastle, Hays, Mancini, Mullins
GPP note – Mullins is a solid one off here, as he could cause some issues for E-Rod, and Mancini is going to be one of my favorite one offs here.
Sox 5 star plays – Martinez, Devers
Sox 4 star plays – Bogaerts, Verdugo, Renfroe
GPP note – Sox are on fire right now after putting up 16 runs last night, could be a good time to fade them in GPPs though as they will be chalky and could come out slow here today after they crushed this O’s team yesterday
Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins
The Cubs are now the laughing stock of the MLB with that lineup, but Miami hasn’t named a starter yet so we can’t pick who to use there yet, the Cubs have Mills on the bump and he’s been pretty inconsistent but has a solid matchup here for sure and not many people will be on him.
Cubs 5 star plays – None
Cubs 4 star plays – Contreras, Duffy
GPP note – Not much to like here, easy fade for me with how they’ve been performing.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Aguilar, Brinson, Alfaro
GPP note – Marlins have been crushing the Cubs SPs this series, so could be a good low owned stack and an inexpensive one.
Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers
Here we have Triston McKenzie slated to take on Drew Hutchison who is making his season debut, this is a great spot for the Indians offense here today and I like them a lot as they should be able to take advantage here and they’ve been swinging some hot bats over the last 2 weeks.
Indians 5 star plays – Reyes
Indians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Reyes, Mercado, Straw, Zimmer
GPP note – Indians are kind of hot right now and Hutchison is making his season debut here, could be a nice low owned stack again here tonight.
Tigers 5 star plays – None
Tigers 4 star plays – Grossman, Schoop, Haase
GPP note – McKenzie has been up and down this season so the Tigers are in a good spot here as well, but they do K a lot as well.
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox
Here we have Nestor Cortes going up against Lucas Giolito, and both SPs have been pretty solid so far this year and against these two teams. If I’m gonna be stacking this game it’ll likely be the White Sox though as they seem to hit any guy the Yankees put out there and Giolito can be absolutely dominant at times, one of the few SPs with 10+K upside today.
Yankees 5 star plays – Gallo
Yankees 4 star plays – Stanton, Judge, Voit, Odor
GPP note – LHBs are who you want, but it’s not a great matchup for the Yankees.
White Sox 5 star plays – Jimenez
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert, Hernandez, Abreu, Moncada
GPP note – The White Sox should get to Cortes here, I like them a lot but they’ll likely be a bit chalky here.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals
Here we have two offenses we can target as we have two gas cans in J.A. Happ and Kris Bubic going up against one another, the Cardinals offense has also been hot and the Royals crush LHPs (hello Sal Perez). I think that this will be a high scoring game for sure and will be targeting both offenses here with my stacks.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Arenado, Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – O’Neill, Bader, Carpenter
GPP note – Very stackable here as Bubic has been bad all season
Royals 5 star plays – Perez
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Alberto, Dozier
GPP note – Get the Royals RHBs here as Happ can’t get them out.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins
Here we have Luis Patino going up against Charlie Barnes who has an ERA of over 6, so you bet I’ll be targeting this Rays offense here as they are in a great spot. The Twins are lowkey still holding their own as well offensively and shouldn’t go overlooked as Patino hasn’t been too sharp over his last few starts either.
Rays 5 star plays – Meadows
Rays 4 star plays – Cruz, Lowe, Wendle
GPP note – LHBs will be the way to go here if you want to target Barnes, not something I would highly recommend though
Twins 5 star plays – None
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler, Garver, Rooker
GPP note – Sneaky secondary stack here, I like them in that regards but not as a primary stack.
Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers
Sean Manaea will go up against Kolby Allard here, and the two lefties will take on completely different offenses. The Rangers look lost against LHPs as their stats show it big time, and the A’s can crush LHPs with some of the RHBs they have, especially Starling Marte, they’ll be an offense I’m targeting today while Manaea will be an SP I like for sure.
A’s 5 star plays – Marte
A’s 4 star plays – Chapman, Olson, Canha, Murphy
GPP note – RHBs against the lefty, the A’s have some good ones.
Rangers 5 star plays – None
Rangers 4 star plays – Garcia, Culberson
GPP note – The Rangers will be a complete fade for me today.
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
Jon Gray going up against Alex Wood here in one of the biggest ball parks in the MLB doesn’t exactly equal a recipe for runs here tonight, but the Giants offense is hot right now. I won’t be stacking Rockies here but I do like Story as a one off against the LHPs, along with Cron who has been white hot over the past week. People also need to learn who LaMonte Wade Jr. is, as this dude has been lighting it up all year and 90% of baseball still have no idea who he is.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Story, Cron
GPP note – Only want their RHBs, but being in such a big ballpark it is a downgrade for them.
Giants 5 star plays – Wade Jr., Belt, Crawford
Giants 4 star plays – Posey, Bryant, Yastrzemski
GPP note – Love the Giants again here tonight, they’ve been crushing and are all still cheap.
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels
Here we have Lance McCullers Jr. going up against Reid Detmers who has been an absolute gas can as shown by his ERA which is hovering above 10, needless to say this is a great spot to target the Astros as they should crush him here. McCullers has looked much better as of late as well, so he is a guy you can have a few shares of on the afternoon slate.
Astros 5 star plays – Altuve, Brantley, Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Correa, Diaz, Gurriel
GPP note – Great spot, they should crush here
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Walsh, Gosselin, Eaton, Stassi
GPP note – Lower owned stack that could pay off on a small slate.
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San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Here we get a bit different as you have Craig Stammen going up against Zac Gallen, and this is a matchup where I actually like Gallen pitching at home in the desert with the dehumidifiers on. He’s been solid so far with not a lot of luck to show for it but he has the K upside and is pretty cheap on both sites.
Padres 5 star plays – Grisham, Machado
Padres 4 star plays – Nola, Myers, Frazier
GPP note – LHBs are who you wanna go with here for this Padres team with a few RHBs sprinkled in.
DBacks 5 star plays – none
DBacks 4 star plays – Marte, Varsho, Calhoun
GPP note – Hedge stack only here, on a small slate it could very well work out but this D-Backs offense just isn’t very good.
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners
The Blue Jays lost Springer to an ankle injury last night, so he is doubtful to be in the lineup, and Logan Gilbert has actually been really good this year so this may be a rare occasion where you can fade the Blue Jays especially on a smaller slate. Steven Matz has been solid but as we saw last night this Mariners offense can crush LHPs and they’ll be a team to target on this slate.
Jays 5 star plays – None
Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero, Semien, Dickerson, Gurriel
GPP note – Tough to love them here especially if they’re gonna be chalky.
Mariners 5 star plays – Torrens, Haniger
Mariners 4 star plays – France, Seager, Toro
GPP note – Love them here, crushed last night and should again here tonight.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets
Here we have the night cap of the Dodgers taking on the Mets, and its Scherzer up against Carrasco in what should be a pitchers duel as these are both teams aces at the current moment with the Mets keeping deGrom on the IL. It’ll be tough to like any of the bats here, but I think the Dodgers bats are better in this special, especially the lefties. Although, Scherzer’s kryptonite is the long ball so that could be deadly for him here tonight as well.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Muncy
Dodgers 4 star plays – Bellinger, Pollock, Turner, Seager
GPP note – LHBs are who you want to target here.
Mets 5 star plays – None
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso, Conforto, Smith, Davis
GPP note – Again don’t go crazy here, they have some pop and the way to get to Scherzer is via the long ball.
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Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Boston Red Sox- Akin has been bad and this Sox offense is white hot over this past week put up 20 runs earlier this week and 16 last night, they’ll be chalky but for good reason.
- Atlanta Braves – Espino has been bad and this Braves offense is still white hot going into this game, their 1-7 guys are all dangerous and can pop off at any time.
- Tampa Bay Rays – They should take full advantage here, you can target both RHBs and LHBs as they’ve both been hot and get a guy with an ERA of over 6.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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