Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/14:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Chris Sale
- James Kapriellian
- Joe Musgrove
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Cincinnati Reds (-145) @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Reds – Luis Castillo
Phillies – Matt Moore
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Castillo had been plugging along pretty well and then he was hit around last time out. The Phillies can certainly hit him in this one but it’s the Reds offense that I think is in the best spot as Moore just isn’t somebody that worries me and the Phillies bullpen hasn’t been splendid.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Joey Votto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against LHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Didi Gregorius
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (-210)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Giants – Undecided
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I am being pretty aggressive with my love of the Giants in my rankings as I just feel like they’ve seen Freeland enough and a number of guys have solid BvP against him. I have seen a rumor that the Giants could be going with Sammy Long in this one and if they do, I would debate a mini-stack of Story-Cron in some of my builds.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Buster Posey, Donovan Solano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against LHPs this season.
Toronto Blue Jays (-153) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Mariners – Yusei Kikuchi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We get a battle of the foreign-born LHPs in this one as these guys are very similar SPs. Ryu is the better SP overall and he takes on the weaker offense but I just don’t think I want to use either SP. I have far more interest in the offenses as both can do some damage against LHPs. We already know that we should be stacking the Blue Jays on a daily basis.
TOR 5-star plays: George Springer
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against LHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Abraham Toro, Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against LHPs this season.
Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins (-135)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Zach Davies
Marlins – Zach Thompson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Well, I was way off on my thoughts about Friday’s game so maybe I need to be on the offenses more in this one? Thompson has been pretty solid overall for the Marlins while Davies, somehow, was part of a no-hitter of the Dodgers this season. The Cubs have now lost 9 straight games and while the Marlins are a very beatable team, I just don’t see the Cubs winning very often the rest of the way.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Ortega
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Alfaro, Lewis Brinson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs this season.
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Houston Astros (-177) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Astros – Luis Garcia
Angels – Jaime Barria
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The Astros are going to end up my top stack as they have hit Barria well and I just think their overall match-up is one of the best on the main slate tonight. Garcia has been somewhat impressive this season and the Angels lineup, as a whole, is really weak. Walsh has hit Garcia really well and we know that Shohei is extremely dangerous.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-180) @ New York Mets
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Walker Buehler
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Walker has given up 10 HRs over his last 4 starts and that’s not a trend that is favorable in this match-up. Seeing numbers like that makes me want to adjust my stack rankings at the bottom to include the Dodgers in the top 3 as those HRs catapult you up the GPP leaderboard. Buehler is in a solid spot as the Mets offense, overall, has been scuffling for a couple of weeks.
LAD 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians (-130) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Indians – Sam Hentges
Tigers – Wily Peralta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I just don’t have a ton of interest at first glance, in this game. I do think either offense could score 6-8 runs but I also think the pitchers could do just enough to make this a 5-4 game without anybody doing a ton for either team. If I had to guess, it’d be the Indians flashing some power and a mini-stack being the way to go but I don’t have a ton of confidence in either side.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Bradley Zimmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against LHPs this season.
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Milwaukee Brewers (-180) @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Game 1
Pitchers:
Brewers – Brett Anderson
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Remember that this game is a 7-inning contest.
MIL 5-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Luis Urias
4-star plays: Omar Narvaez, Willy Adames
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 against LHPs this season.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Game 2
Pitchers:
Brewers – Aaron Ashby
Pirates – Bryse Wilson
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Remember that this game is a 7-inning contest.
MIL 5-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Luis Urias
4-star plays: Omar Narvaez, Willy Adames
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 against RHPs this season.
St Louis Cardinals (-111) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jon Lester
Royals – Brad Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. The Cardinals are capable of winning you a slate but they don’t do it very often. They looked decent last night against Minor, picking up some HRs and that could carry over here as the total is higher and the opposing SP is weaker. I really like a Salvy Perez one-off or a mini-stack for KC as Lester just doesn’t have anything left.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Hunter Dozier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against LHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves (-177) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Braves – Max Fried
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Fried shut down the Nationals the last time out but they had hit him pretty well this season. I am not sure I can trust him on the road as he has been pretty bad away from Atlanta. Corbin has given up 9 runs in 11.1 innings against the Braves this season and he’s allowed 8 HRs over his last 3 starts. I really like the Braves in the early action on both sites.
ATL 5-star plays: Adam Duvall, Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against LHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: Ryan Zimmerman
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Victor Robles
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against LHPs this season.
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox (-255)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Jorge Lopez
Red Sox – Chris Sale
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. We get to see the return of Chris Sale as the Red Sox really need the shot in the arm as they’ve been struggling of late. Sale made 5 rehab starts and has been stretched to over 80 pitches in his return from Tommy John. Mancini has hit Sale extremely well but Sale should be in a plus spot and I would think he goes 5-6 innings. I am really interested in the Red Sox bats against Lopez as I always stack against him.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against LHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers, Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs this season.
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San Diego Padres (-203) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Padres – Joe Musgrove
D’Backs – Tyler Gilbert
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Musgrove lines up to be one of the top SPs tonight as we know how weak the Padres lineup is and how dominant he’s capable of being. I don’t think Gilbert goes much more than 3 innings but I suppose 4 isn’t out of the realm of possibilities. I don’t love how the Padres have looked against LHPs but I think there’s some sneaky upside in a stack tonight.
SD 5-star plays: Adam Frazier
4-star plays: Trent Grisham, Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against LHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: David Peralta
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 against RHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics (-203) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Athletics – James Kapriellian
Rangers – Jordan Lyles
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am a huge Kapriellian fan and he gets one of the best match-ups of the day as the Rangers have a ton of random guys in their everyday lineup at this point. Adolis Garcia has flashed the power against Kaprillian but that’s basically it. I think the A’s are in a GREAT spot against Lyles as a few guys are starting to heat up and they also have some strong BvP against him in their careers.
OAK 5-star plays: Mitch Moreland, Josh Harrison
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins (-130)
Pitchers:
Rays – Michael Wacha
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. We saw Cruz homer in his return to Minnesota last night and I could see that happening again as he loves hitting at Target Field. The Twins lineup has some power in it but we just never know when that power is going to show up. Wacha is capable of shutting a team down for 5 innings or he’s going to get blown up in about 3 innings. I don’t think I want to fully stack either side but mini-stacking in hopes of getting the few HRs hit in this game sounds like an excellent game plan.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Austin Meadows
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs this season.
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox (-125)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jameson Taillon
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. These teams had an off day yesterday as they traveled after an amazing game at the Field of Dreams on Thursday. I wonder what the mindset of these two teams will be coming off of that experience. Taillon was the A.L. pitcher of the month in July and has really started to settle in. Cease has double-digit K ability in his arm so we could see a great pitching match-up or we could continue to see many HRs hit between these two teams. I lean more towards the pitchers tonight.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Houston Astros
- San Francisco Giants
- Oakland Athletics
MLB Dinger of the Day – Adam Duvall, Atlanta Braves
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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