Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/13:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Charlie Morton
- Nick Pivetta
- Zack Wheeler
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Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies (-172)
Pitchers:
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Wheeler has been absolutely elite all season long but this is a big test for him with how well the Reds have swung the bat against RHPs. I think he’s up for the task tonight and I do think he’s lower owned because of the match-up. Mahle is capable of putting up strong numbers as well. If I am using bats in this game, I think I want mini-stacks and obviously prefer the PHI side.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Brad Miller
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (-210)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Giants – Anthony DeSclafani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. This is a sneaky good SP match-up and it probably goes a bit overlooked. Gomber has really impressed me this season while DeSclafani has flashed stud performances, as long as he isn’t facing the Dodgers. We should always get stacks of the Giants in our builds as they lead baseball in HRs.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Buster Posey, Darin Ruf
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against LHPs this season.
Toronto Blue Jays (-160) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Robbie Ray
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am always high on the Blue Jays but shockingly, tonight, they aren’t in my top 3 at the moment. Flexen has done enough this season to show that he’s capable of limiting teams just enough. The Mariners bats have had some success against Ray in their careers so they could be an interesting GPP stack or mini-stack.
TOR 5-star plays: George Springer
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 against RHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: Abraham Toro
4-star plays: Ty France, Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against LHPs this season.
Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins (-111)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Adbert Alzolay
Marlins – Jesus Luzardo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I was shocked to see such a low total in this game so I have to dig into Alzolay a bit more as he certainly could be a sneaky option. Luzardo gets a great match-up and I do think he has a bit of a chip on his shoulder and that’s a dangerous thing when talking about somebody who was considered one of, if not the top, SP prospect in baseball just two seasons ago. The Cubs are striking out quite a bit right now so that is going to raise Luzardo’s floor-ceiling combo.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Frank Schwindel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against LHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lewis Brinson, Miguel Rojas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs this season.
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Houston Astros (-140) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Astros – Zack Greinke
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Greinke just keeps frustrating people this season. His stuff just isn’t dominant but then he does enough to contain and shut down an offense when we want to stack against him. When we say OK, let’s not stack against him, he gives up 5 runs in 4 innings or something. Sandoval has grown at the MLB level but he’s allowed some power to this HOU squad.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Chas McCormick, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against LHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-145) @ New York Mets
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Mets – Tylor Megill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Megill has started to struggle a bit more recently and that’s not a great sign coming into a start against the Dodgers offense, even if they are without Betts. The Mets have struggled recently and with how LH-heavy they can be, Urias lines up to be in an excellent spot. The total is just slightly higher than I would have expected.
LAD 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, AJ Pollock
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Javy Baez, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against LHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians (-111) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Indians – Zach Plesac
Tigers – Tyler Alexander
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Plesac has held the Tigers to an average of .175 across 17 innings this season. He’s certainly worth consideration but he hasn’t thrown more than 89 pitches but once in his last 7 starts. The Indians have a couple of guys who have hit Alexander well and can double-dong in this match-up.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willi Castro, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
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Milwaukee Brewers (-180) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Brewers – Brett Anderson
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I ended up on an LHP against PIT yesterday and that backfired so I won’t be using Anderson but I don’t think using PIT is all that smart but then again I’ve never been told I was smart. The Brewers offense rolled yesterday and while I hate trying to follow up with a team after they go nuclear, I just think they are in a groove right now.
MIL 5-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Luis Urias
4-star plays: Omar Narvaez, Willy Adames
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 against LHPs this season.
St Louis Cardinals (-130) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
Royals – Mike Minor
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The return of Flaherty is great to see as a baseball fan as I really like the way he pitches. We need to read reports on what’s expected of him as I assume he isn’t going to be allowed to come out and throw 7 innings. Minor can get Ks but I think he’s in trouble against some of the RH power of the Cardinals in this one.
STL 5-star plays: Tyler O’Neill
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against RHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves (-145) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Braves – Charlie Morton
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I love Charlie Morton tonight and I hope he knows it! He’s somebody that has been better away from ATL this season and he has 13 Ks in 11 innings against WSH this year. The Braves acquired a lot of power for their OF prior to the deadline and while Gray has a bright future, in my opinion, he could be in some trouble in this one.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox (-245)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Spenser Watkins
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11. We get an 11 total at Fenway and I can’t contain my excitement. Well, I can but it’s really difficult as I think the Red Sox are in gut-check time and they need to start performing. I will be all over the Red Sox bats and I do kind of like Pivetta but a mini-stack of BAL could payoff handsomely.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs this season.
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San Diego Padres (-172) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Padres – Blake Snell
D’Backs – Madison Bumgarner
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Snell is coming off of dominant performance and Bumgarner has looked strong in 5 straight starts leading up to this one. The Padres bats have had some success against Bumgarner, either in average or in power but they aren’t great as a team against LHPs. Arizona is at its best against LHPs but they still aren’t a very dangerous offense.
SD 5-star plays: Adam Frazier
4-star plays: Wil Myers, Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against LHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carson Kelly
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics (-172) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Athletics – Cole Irvin
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Just like the Brewers, the A’s exploded yesterday and it’s tough to want to go back to that but I think we need to. Dunning flashed solid stuff earlier this season but he’s coming off of the IL and his K numbers have been on the decline recently. Irvin is the type of arm that’s capable of shutting down a team like Texas and picking up 5-6 Ks and being just good enough for our builds.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Culberson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 against LHPs this season.
Tampa Bay Rays (-157) @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
Rays – Shane McClanahan
Twins – Michael Pineda
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I hate watching my Twins play right now as I just look at the lineup and wonder where the production will come from. They have won a few games recently but they just aren’t consistent. I normally use Pineda against just about anybody as he has a way of limiting damage but I think he’s in trouble against this TB squad. They have plenty of RH power in their lineup and that’s something that can give Pineda troubles.
TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Manuel Margot
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Miguel Sano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Boston Red Sox
- Oakland Athletics
- Milwaukee Brewers
MLB Dinger of the Day – Paul Goldschmidt
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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