Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m mutt18 and I am one of your basketball, football and baseball coaches. We head into the beginning of the week with only 5 games on tap here.
A Look at Pitchers:
Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff (53) throws a pitch in the first inning of the MLB baseball game between Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers on Saturday, July 17, 2021, at Great American Ball Park.
Milwaukee Brewers Cincinnati Reds
Early- For the early slate, it really isn’t too tough here, as you have Brandon Woodruff taking on the Cubs AA affiliate basically after Corbin Burnes put up 79 FD points against them last night. Chris Bassitt is another guy I am very high on here as well for the early slate as he has been lights out since the All-Star Break. John Means is another guy I want to look at here as he’s been pitching well and this Tigers offense is sputtering at bit at the moment as well.
Main – Yu Darvish is going to be the most popular piece in cash and GPPs, as the D-Backs are horrible offensively, but they don’t K a ton so I’m not as high on him as everyone else will be. Lance Lynn is a great option here against the Yankees, and Logan Webb against the Rockies pitching in Oracle is something I want to target as well. Andrew Heaney also hasn’t been sharp, but if he is on tonight he could be a GPP winner, I will be both targeting and stacking against him here tonight.
Early Games
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
Here we have a double header on tap, so I won’t go too deep here as you don’t really want to target these games, Trevor Williams is up for the Mets today and he hasn’t thrown much at all this year so not someone you want to target and the Nationals looks like they’re going with a bullpen day, so that’s an easy fade, I want maybe a bat or two from here and that’s it.
Nationals 5 star plays – Soto
Nationals 4 star plays – Bell, Kieboom
GPP note – Don’t go crazy here on a 7 inning game, not something to target
Mets 5 star plays – None
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso, Conforto, Smith, Davis
GPP note – Again don’t go crazy here, on DK maybe grab one bat that has a ton of power and that’s it
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Here we have Wade LeBlanc going up against JT Brubaker, neither is a guy I will have ton of here but the Pirates offense is just bad enough that I’ll have some shares of LeBlanc here as he is super cheap on both sites. Outside of him I will want to target Cardinals bats here as Brubaker has an ERA of around 5 and has allowed 23 HRs on the year, I won’t have much exposure to the Pirates at all here.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Arenado, Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – Carlson, O’Neill, Molina, DeJong
GPP note – DeJong is a nice cheap bat here as his power numbers have been trending upward and he’s cheap, he is an all or nothing type guy though which makes him perfect for GPPs.
Pirates 5 star plays – None
Pirates 4 star plays – Hayes, Park, Reynolads, Polanco
GPP note – Park homered the other day and Reynolds is due for a big game, those are really the only guys I will target as one-offs here as I won’t be stacking the Pirates.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies
The Dodgers still haven’t named a starter, and Ranger Suarez is gonna get the ball for the Phillies but I don’t see him going very long here but the numbers are solid. I won’t be targeting an SP from this game. I will be targeting the bats on both sides though as it is supposed to be very warm here and we all know the ball flies further when it is hot out, I prefer the Dodgers here but the Phillies LHBs are in a good spot here as well, especially with Bellinger starting to catch fire.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger, Muncy
Dodgers 4 star plays – Turner, Seager, Smith, Pollock
GPP note – I will be targeting their LHBs here for sure but I expect they will be pretty chalky on the early slate so you might need a guy like Beaty to get different here as well.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Segura, Realmuto, McCutchen, Bohm, Torreyes
GPP note – Phillies are a pesky lineup especially near the bottom of that order, they shouldn’t be as chalky as the Dodgers though so this is a solid spot for them.
Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Indians
Finally an SP to target, here the A’s have Chris Bassitt going and this dude has been lights out since the All-Star Break, he’s my favorite SP on the early slate as this Cleveland lineup outside of Ramirez and Reyes just isn’t very good or powerful, if he can navigate those two he’ll be just fine here today. I do want to target Eli Morgan here as well especially with the A’s LHBs and Starling Marte.
A’s 5 star plays – Olson, Marte
A’s 4 star plays – Canha, Lowrie, Moreland
GPP note – A’s LHBs are who you want here, and Marte has been en fuego as well so I want him too, Chapman has still be slow but is starting to heat up and he should garner virtually no ownership here.
Indians 5 star plays – None
Indians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Reyes, Mercado
GPP note – Indians aren’t a very stackable offense to begin with and now going up against Bassitt it’s even worse, he should carve them up here, I’ll really only be targeting Ramirez and Reyes as one-offs in lineups that don’t have Bassitt.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are now the laughing stock of the MLB with that lineup, as Burnes just destroyed them last night. In NBA you always targets bigs against the Nets, well now in MLB you target SPs against the Cubs. Woodruff has also been pretty dominant this year so I’m not too worried at all but he will be chalky after what everyone saw Burnes do to them last night. Hendricks isn’t a guy I ever really target as he doesn’t K many people but if you’re looking to get different the stats really aren’t bad.
Brewers 5 star plays – None
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Adames, Escobar, Narvaes, Tellez
GPP note – Will be chalky I think here, but not a ton of power in this lineup that makes them stackable, especially since Hendricks doesn’t really ever get blown up.
Cubs 5 star plays – None
Cubs 4 star plays – Contreras, Duffy
GPP note – Not much to like here, easy fade for me with how they’ve been performing.
Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles
Here we have another not so exciting game, as the Tigers take on the O’s and there isn’t a ton to love in this game either. I actually do like the SPs here a bit though as Matt Manning is a young stud in the making and John Means has shown the upside before as well. I think this will actually be a lower scoring game here so I don’t want a ton of either offense here but I will have some shares of the SPs.
Tigers 5 star plays – Haase
Tigers 4 star plays – Grossman, Schoop
GPP note – Means has been solid and while I do like the Tigers against LHPs he’s one of the better ones so I won’t be targeting them to stack a bunch here.
Orioles 5 star plays – None
Orioles 4 star plays – Mountcastle, Hays, Mancini, Mullins
GPP note – Mullins is a solid one off here, as he could cause some issues for Manning especially on the basepaths, but the O’s aren’t a team I ever really want to stack unless its a bad LHP.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
Here we have a battle of the no names, as Drew Rasmussen will take on Tanner Houck, but I actually like Houck here as he has some good stuff and has a ton of K upside as he has K’ed 36 in 25 innings so far this year. I will want shares of both offenses though, especially the Red Sox as they just almost put up 3 touchdowns on this Rays team last night so their bullpen is gonna be taxed.
Rays 5 star plays – Meadows
Rays 4 star plays – Cruz, Lowe, Wendle
GPP note – LHBs will be the way to go here if you want to target Houck, not something I would highly recommend though
Sox 5 star plays – Martinez, Devers
Sox 4 star plays – Bogaerts, Verdugo, Renfroe
GPP note – Sox are on fire right now after putting up 20 runs last night, could be a good time to fade them in GPPs though as they will be chalky and could come out slow here today.
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners
Mike Foltynewicz is the bane of my existence, as this guy has great stuff but just can’t locate any of it. He has been better as of late but I’ll be targeting Seattle bats against him today for sure, on the other side, Marco Gonzales has been solid but doesn’t K too many guys, but this Rangers team doesn’t have a ton of power against LHPs so he could cruise in this one but he’s not an SP I’m going out of my way to target.
Rangers 5 star plays – None
Rangers 4 star plays – Garcia, Ibanez, Culberson
GPP note – Not a high octane offense against LHPs, I think you can fade and be fine here.
Mariners 5 star plays – Seager
Mariners 4 star plays – Toro, Torrens, Kelenic, Haniger
GPP note – Actually really like SEA LHBs here as Folty can’t get them out and allows a ton of power to them, really good spot and I don’t think they’ll be highly owned.
Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves
Here we have the Reds who are still one of the hottest offenses in baseball, taking on the Braves who aren’t too shabby themselves, I will want parts of both offenses here as Vladimir Gutierrez and Kyle Muller do not instill fear into anybody here, target the bats in this one especially with the warm weather in Atlanta.
Reds 5 star plays – Votto, Winker, Moustakas
Reds 4 star plays – Castellanos, Farmer, Suarez
GPP note – Love all their bats here, 1-9 is solid but I want Votto and Winker the most.
Braves 5 star plays – Freeman, Riley
Braves 4 star plays – Albies, Soler, Duvall
GPP note – Duvall has been hot, if you aren’t stacking the Braves he’s a really good one off play that should be low owned and this dude has a ton of power.
Main Slate
New Yorks Yankees @ Chicago White Sox
Here we have Heaney going up against Lynn, in what should be a good matchup except for one thing, the White Sox destroy LHPs and Heaney has not been sharp since putting on the pinstripes, but he also has GPP winning upside if he is on, so I will be targeting him and stacking against him. Lynn has been up and down since the ASB, but he is very good against LHHs, and the Yankees are loaded with them and while I don’t see him going unscathed here he should still be one of the top SPs on the slate.
Yankees 5 star plays – Gallo
Yankees 4 star plays – Stanton, Judge, Voit, Odor
GPP note – LHBs are who you want, but I like the Yankees righties a bit more here as Lynn is actually very good against opposing LHHs.
White Sox 5 star plays – Abreu, Goodwin, Vaughn, Jimenez
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert, Hernandez
GPP note – The White Sox destroy LHPs, they’re going to be my favorite offense to target here on a small main slate.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels
Here we have Berrios taking on Ohtani in what should be a low scoring game, Ohtani is on top of his game right now so this is a rare night where I won’t be stacking a ton of Blue Jays even though they could very well still pop off here. Berrios has been up and down this year and I actually like the Angels as a sneaky stack target here tonight as they should be pretty low owned.
Jays 5 star plays – None
Jays 4 star plays – Springer, Guerrero, Semien, Dickerson, Gurriel
GPP note – Tough to love them against Ohtani but they are one of the best offenses in baseball
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Walsh, Gosselin, Eaton, Stassi
GPP note – Lower owned stack that could help you take down a GPP here tonight.
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San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Yu Darvish is gonna be chalky here, as this AZ team just isn’t good offensively and he should cruise here. My only issue with him is that the D-Backs don’t K at a ton (about 17% to RHPs) so I think that’ll limit his upside, but he has the best matchup of any SP on this slate by far. Widener could get lit up here at home, and I like the idea of stacking this Padres offense even without Tatis here tonight.
Padres 5 star plays – Grisham, Machado
Padres 4 star plays – Nola, Myers, Frazier
GPP note – LHBs are who you wanna go with here for this Padres team with a few RHBs sprinkled in.
DBacks 5 star plays – none
DBacks 4 star plays – Marte, Varsho, Calhoun
GPP note – Hedge stack only here, on a small slate it could very well work out but this D-Backs offense just isn’t very good.
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Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
German Marquez going up against Logan Webb here in one of the biggest ball parks in the MLB doesn’t exactly equal a recipe for runs here tonight, but the Giants offense is hot right now after hitting another 4 HRs last night and I think they can take advantage here. I won’t be stacking Rockies here but I do like Story as a one off against the LHPs, along with Cron who has been white hot over the past week. People also need to learn who LaMonte Wade Jr. is, as this dude has been lighting it up all year and 90% of baseball still have no idea who he is.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Story, Cron
GPP note – Only want their RHBs, but being in such a big ballpark it is a downgrade for them.
Giants 5 star plays – Wade Jr., Belt, Crawford
Giants 4 star plays – Posey, Bryant, Yastrzemski
GPP note – Love the Giants again here tonight, they just hit 4 HRs last night and they are still super cheap.
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Stacks of the Day: Early Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Dodgers are heating up with their new additions, and the biggest piece is that Cody Bellinger is rounding into form as he just double donged last night and has multiple HRs over their last 4 games, they should put up a nice score here today.
- St. Louis Cardinals – Brubaker and this Pirates bullpen are simply just not good, and they’ve been heating up as well, for the early slate they take the #2 spot for me in stacks
- Oakland Athletics – Target the Oakland LHBs here along with Marte, they’ve been hot and they have a ton of power against a guy who loves giving up HRs and it is very warm in Cleveland today, love them here.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- San Francisco Giants – The Giants are still one of the most underrated offenses in baseball and they just hit another 4 HRs last night, great spot again here as I don’t have a ton of faith in Marquez here as he’s due for some regression plus they are still stupid cheap.
- Chicago White Sox – They crush LHPs as their top 6 in the order are all really really good against them. Heaney hasn’t been sharp since joining the Yankees either and while I’ll be targeting him in GPPs I’ll also be stacking against him for sure.
- San Diego Padres – The Padres are still an elite offense in baseball without Tatis, and I like them a ton against Widener here tonight. I like the LHBs especially but you can grab some of their RHBs as well.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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