Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/11:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Corbin Burnes
- Adam Wainwright
- Kevin Gausman
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Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves (-111)
Pitchers:
Reds – Wade Miley
Braves – Touki Toussaint
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Toussaint has had a couple of strong starts to go with one horrendous performance that he started out cruising in. He gets a tougher match-up on paper but I think people will overlook the fact that he’s been dominant against LHBs so far this season. Here’s my weekly rant about Wade Miley, he’s a guy that I always stack against as he should get smacked around the ballpark but somehow he gets outs. I will be stacking the Braves against him.
CIN 5-star plays: Jonathan India
4-star plays: Jesse Winker, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Jorge Soler, Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Adam Duvall, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against LHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies @ Houston Astros (-245)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
Astros – Framber Valdez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Rockies bats have had some strong performances recently and they are best against LHPs but I think Valdez steps up and reminds us just how good he’s capable of being. Houston’s bats need to wake up a bit and Senzatela is certainly the type of pitcher to allow them to do so. Things are starting to tighten up in the A.L. so Houston certainly needs to wake up and they have to do it with Bregman and Gurriel on the IL.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against LHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against RHPs this season.
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners (-180)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Spencer Howard
Mariners – Tyler Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Howard is expected to stay on the shorter side of a start so we get Seattle bats against a bullpen that I think is very soft. Anderson is in an interesting spot as he’s actually been really solid this season and we know that the Texas lineup is extremely weak at this point. The more I think about it, the more I like a Seattle stack for GPP purposes with a decent amount of Tyler Anderson.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 against LHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: Abraham Toro
4-star plays: Jarred Kelenic
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres (-172)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Padres -Ryan Weathers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Alcantara is capable of shutting down any offense but we also saw him get absolutely waxed in Coors. San Diego certainly isn’t the same without Tatis Jr, but they are very capable overall and have a number of guys with upside in their lineup. Weathers has struggled a bit recently but he’s capable of shutting down this weak Miami lineup over 5 or so innings. If his price point is right on DK, I have no problem using him as a punt SP2.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lewis Brinson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against LHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Trent Grisham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs this season.
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Toronto Blue Jays (-172) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Angels – Dylan Bundy
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Bundy worries me in this spot (as far as if I was an Angels fan). Over much of his career, he had been a reverse splits guy and this is NOT the opponent you want to be reverse splits against. The RHBs of Toronto are ridiculously strong against RHPs. Manoah has definite upside, especially if he’s able to keep Ohtani in the park as there are K’s to be had in this makeshift Angels lineup.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, George Springer
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-135) @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Dodgers – David Price
Phillies – Kyle Gibson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The Dodgers lineup looked overmatched by Nola yesterday prior to the rain delay and then they woke up once he was out of the game. While Gibson isn’t the same kind of pitcher that Nola is, I think it showed a route to a solid outing for Gibson. He’s going to be virtually unowned so he’s worth a GPP share or two in your builds. Price is a guy that I constantly try to use thinking he could go 6 and strike out 8 in some sort of a throwback start. I wish PHI was healthier (McCutchen, Hoskins) in this spot as I think they’d be a sneaky-strong GPP stack.
LAD 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Will Smith
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against RHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Didi Gregorius
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against LHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers (-115) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Orioles – Matt Harvey
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Every time we stack against Harvey, he pisses us off so much that we swear we are going to stop, and then he’s scheduled to pitch and we do it again. I am not sure what to make of this game just yet as both offenses are weak enough that I can see either or both sides struggling. Skubal is certainly the more talented SP in this game but I also think that BAL bats are in the better spot, being at home and against an LHP.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Pedro Severino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against LHPs this season.
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St Louis Cardinals (-160) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Pirates – Wil Crowe
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Crowe has been a reverse splits guy at the MLB level so far and that’s a dangerous thing going against a lineup that has Goldschmidt-Arenado-O’Neill in the middle of it. Wainwright is generally a guy that I avoid on the road but I will be making a concession tonight as he gets a weakened PIT lineup. I just don’t think very highly of whatever they run out there as a lineup as they have just 1 or 2 real trouble spots in the lineup for Wainwright.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tyler O’Neill, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Colin Moran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 against RHPs this season.
New York Yankees (-125) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Yankees – Undecided
Royals – Brady Singer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I have seen a rumor that Deivi Garcia would return to the majors tonight but he’s been SOOO bad at the Triple-A level that I just don’t think he’s a smart choice. I have also seen it be yet another bullpen game for the Yankees. That seems dangerous given how important a fresh bullpen is down the stretch as they chase the Rays and Red Sox in the standings.
NYY 5-star plays: Joey Gallo, Luke Voit
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against LHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets (-180)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Joe Ross
Mets – Marcus Stroman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I believe it is going to be Joe Ross for Washington but with yesterday’s game being suspended very early, I could also see them using Ross to start out in that game. I am not sure how early we will get the information we need. Stroman is an interesting option as they swapped him and Rich Hill in the rotation for this week.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: Michael Conforto
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Javier Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs this season.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox (-120)
Pitchers:
Rays – Josh Fleming
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The Rays have now won 6 straight against BOS as they lengthened their division lead. We know that Eovaldi hasn’t given up many HRs this season but TB relies on power against RHPs quite a bit. The Red Sox offense has cooled considerably but they do have some guys who have hit Fleming and/or LHPs really well.
TB 5-star plays: Austin Meadows
4-star plays: Joey Wendle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 against RHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs this season.
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants (-250)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Giants – Kevin Gausman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I love this SP match-up as Kelly has been strong against SF this season, allowing them a .206 average in 4 starts. We know how good Gausman has been for much of the season and now he gets a weak ARI lineup while pitching at home. He has allowed just 3 runs in 3 starts with 23 Ks against them this season. The Giants lead baseball in HRs and that’s such a shocking thing to see, given how pitcher-friendly their ballpark has been.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Buster Posey, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 against RHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics (-140) @ Cleveland Indians
Pitchers:
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Indians – Cal Quantrill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Manaea struggled with the Indians on Tuesday so I could see people avoiding Montas. I think I want to go to him in GPPs as he should be lower owned in this spot. I know the Indians’ lineup can be annoying but I just don’t think they have the consistency to make me want to avoid SPs against them. Quantrill has looked decent at times but I still love stacking the top half of the A’s lineup, at least in a mini-stack fashion at minimum.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Seth Brown
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs this season.
Milwaukee Brewers (-150) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Cubs – Jake Arrieta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Burnes is in a GREAT spot given how much the Cubs have been striking out with this new, weaker, lineup that they are now forced to roll out. Arrieta is always capable of turning back the hands of time and having a strong performance but he allows too much contact and that usually doesn’t end well against a team like MIL who doesn’t have a great overall team average but gets big extra-base hits with runners on.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Omar Narvaez, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs this season.
Chicago White Sox (-160) @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Twins – Bailey Ober
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Lynn should be a fairly popular option against this MIN squad and while I think he should pick up the W and probably 7-8 Ks in the outing, he certainly could give up an HR or two. The White Sox struck out a TON against Jax last night and I am still trying to figure out how as he allows so much contact generally. I will be going right back to the White Sox offense as they are just so dangerous, especially with Jimenez and Robert back.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Miguel Sano
4-star plays: Trevor Larnach
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Boston Red Sox
- Atlanta Braves
MLB Dinger of the Day – Michael Conforto, NYM
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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