Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/10:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Logan Gilbert
- Freddy Peralta
- Carlos Carrasco
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Cincinnati Reds (-111) @ Atlanta Braves
Pitchers:
Reds – Sonny Gray
Braves – Drew Smyly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Gray always intrigues me, even against a team like Atlanta. The Reds know they need to keep picking up wins, especially with the Brewers taking on the Cubs over the next couple of days. I prefer the Reds against RHPs, at home, but this feels like a strong spot for them. I won’t be stacking the Braves but a one-off, HR hunting, piece could be big for our GPP builds.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Jonathan India, Aristides Aquino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against LHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Duvall, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies @ Houston Astros (-172)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Jon Gray
Astros – Jake Odorizzi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Rockies bats have actually been really strong of late but we have to look into that with a cautious eye as they are coming out of Coors. With that said, Odorizzi hasn’t looked overly sharp and I think it’s a sneaky spot for Colorado bats. Yordan might be one of my favorite one-offs on the slate tonight.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against RHPs this season.
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners (-210)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Kolby Allard
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I was shocked to see such a low total with Allard going for Texas. I know he has flashed some ability but this Seattle squad has hit him decently well. Gilbert is going to end up one of my favorite plays on the slate as the Texas lineup is extremely weak overall as they cycle through guys, trying to give them opportunities.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Nathaniel Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: Abraham Toro
4-star plays: Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs this season.
Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres (-240)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Undecided
Padres – Craig Stammen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am seeing a rumor that Trevor Rogers could be activated and if he is, I think the Vegas line adjusts greatly as he’s Miami’s best pitcher. Looks like SD will be going with a bullpen-type game at this point, with Stammen capable of going up to 3 innings. If the Marlins do not go with Rogers and run out an RHP, then I think an SD stack becomes much more viable.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against RHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Trent Grisham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 over the last week.
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Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays (-153) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Angels – Chris Rodriguez
Blue Jays – Steven Matz
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Remember that this game is a 7-inning contest.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against LHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays – Game 2
Pitchers:
Angels – Jose Suarez
Blue Jays – Ross Stripling
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Remember that this game is a 7-inning contest.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Jose Iglesias
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 against LHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-157) @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Max Scherzer
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We get to see home Aaron Nola vs arguably, the best lineup in the NL. We also get to see Scherzer back on the east coast against a team that has faced him plenty. I have a hard time wanting to use guys against these SPs but there are some guys who are in plus spots, either via BvP or recent trends.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, AJ Pollock
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against RHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Odubel Herrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles (-111)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Casey Mize
Orioles – Keegan Akin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. This total is surprisingly high with how Mize has thrown over all. The Tigers offense hasn’t been rolling recently but they do have some guys with pop against LHPs. I am really torn on what to do here as the total suggests the bats should be where we go but the offenses are pretty weak. Mullins is always on my list of one-offs with how he’s swung the bat all season long.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, Robbie Grossman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against LHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs this season.
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St Louis Cardinals (-121) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Cardinals – JA Happ
Pirates – Steven Brault
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Happ is just not very good anymore but he takes on a very weak Pittsburgh lineup. Which side is going to win out? I honestly have no idea at this point but I do have an interest in a mini-stack from the PIT side. On the STL side of things, I am very interested in some stacks even though I think Brault is decent enough. I like the power that STL has shown against him in their careers.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against LHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 against LHPs this season.
New York Yankees (-153) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Yankees – Nestor Cortes
Royals – Daniel Lynch
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. The Yankees have come alive of late and the power is starting to show. They have the guys that can hit LHPs extremely well, especially if Voit heats up over the next month or so. The Royals have a decent team ISO against LHPs but nobody stands out, outside of Salvy.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against LHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against LHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets (-240)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Paolo Espino
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I really like this game from a pitching standpoint as both offenses have been pretty bad over the last week or two. Carrasco is still a very good arm and he’s getting his legs under him while Espino has really surprised me since he stepped into kind of an emergency role. The Mets bats have been really cold so he is in a plus spot for GPP purposes.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Carter Kieboom
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Dominic Smith
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs this season.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox (-115)
Pitchers:
Rays – Luis Patino
Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I really wonder which Eduardo Rodriguez we are going to get in this one. He flashes some dominant stuff but then he tends to just fall apart at times. We know that TB can strike out a ton against LHPs but they also have been stronger against them, especially with Cruz and Franco. Boston bats are always in play but they’ve hit a bit of a rough stretch of late. I hope Verdugo is back as he’s one of the few that had been rolling at the plate.
TB 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz
4-star plays: Wander Franco, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against LHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs this season.
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants (-220)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Giants – Alex Wood
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We should see a pretty solid game from the SPs in this one. I konw ARI has been decent against LHPs but I like the way that Alex Wood has thrown this season. Gallen struggled a ton early but he’s shown some flashes recently that remind us of what he had been. Belt returned from the IL and is hitting HRs while Bryant has been solid.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carson Kelly, Nick Ahmed
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against LHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Brandon Belt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 against RHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics (-157) @ Cleveland Indians
Pitchers:
Athletics – Sean Manaea
Indians – Triston McKenzie
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Manaea should bounce back from a rough start while the A’s are in an interesting spot against a pitcher who doesn’t give up a great average but allows a TON of HRs. I want to be all about the Oakland side, with Manaea, in this spot as I just think that CLE is focusing more on next year at this point.
OAK 5-star plays: Starling Marte
4-star plays: Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against LHPs this season.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs – Game 1
Pitchers:
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Cubs – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Remember that this game is a 7-inning contest. I know we have access to these games but we NEED to figure out which order the SPs are going to go in for both teams. Once we do that, then we can evaluate where we are at. If we have access to Peralta, then I think he is the #1 SP option on that slate.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Omar Narvaez, Kolten Wong
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Ortega
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs this season.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs – Game 2
Pitchers:
Brewers – Aaron Ashby
Cubs – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Remember that this game is a 7-inning contest.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Avisail Garcia, Kolten Wong
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Ortega
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs this season.
Chicago White Sox (-145) @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Twins – Griffin Jax
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. The White Sox spanked the Twins last night with some power and I expect more of the same tonight. Jax allows far too much contact at this point and that’s not a good thing with the power that Chicago has displayed recently. We know the Twins have some power of their own as Sano was able to get on the board last night against Giolito. Tonight I am predicting that Garver gets on the HR board.
CWS 5-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Mitch Garver
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Rob Refsnyder
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Chicago White Sox
- New York Yankees
- Oakland Athletics
MLB Dinger of the Day – Starling Marte, Oakland A’s
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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