Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/09:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Blake Snell
- Triston McKenzie
- Kenta Maeda
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Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians
Pitchers:
Royals – Brad Keller
Indians – Triston McKenzie
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: Franmil Reyes
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves (-140) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Braves – Charlie Morton
Marlins – Zach Thompson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Morton has thrown his best on the road so far this season for the Braves while Thompson has been really impressive lately. The total in this game should push people to the SPs as options. I think the Braves are always in play for GPP stacking purposes while a couple of Marlins bats are options as one-offs.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Jazz Chisholm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs this season.
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Reds – Wade Miley
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Thursday’s game really disappointed me as I thought there’d be some more offense, especially from the Reds’ side. We get two LHPs in tonight’s game that have had positive moments this season (Miley has a no-hitter) but they also have had some rough performances as well. I will go back to this game for stacking purposes as I like to double and triple down on stacks after they’ve failed me.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Jesse Winker
4-star plays: Jonathan India, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against LHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Avisail Garcia, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against LHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics (-130) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Athletics – Cole Irvin
Rangers – Jordan Lyles
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The A’s offense has been pretty lackluster of late so Lyles could be a cheap option for GPPs. Irvin has been solid for much of the season so far and he draws a pretty weak offense. I would rather use mini-stacks or one-offs in this game than the SPs at this point but when I start building, I can see myself with a few shares of each SP.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Elvis Andrus
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: Joey Gallo
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, John Hicks
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against LHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Nationals – Paolo Espino
Giants – Logan Webb
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against RHPs this season.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets
Pitchers:
Pirates – Undecided
Mets – Marcus Stroman
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Ben Gamel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .125 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Dominic Smith
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs this season.
New York Yankees @ Houston Astros
Pitchers:
Yankees – Nestor Cortes
Astros – Jake Odorizzi
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Rougned Odor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs this season.
St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs (-160)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Wade LeBlanc
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We get a stand-alone day game in Wrigley and by the looks of it, I would assume the hitting weather isn’t great. The Cubs are solid favorites despite possibly being without Bryant and Baez, two guys who can crush LHPs. Hendricks is extremely hit or miss this season but the Cardinals have been pretty weak offensively of late.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres (-219)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Kyle Freeland
Padres – Blake Snell
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Snell should be one of the more popular SPs on the slate. I know that’s a bit scary but he’s been really good in SD while struggling on the road. The Padres bats just woke up against Scherzer and that doesn’t bode well for a guy like Freeland.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Josh Fuentes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against LHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Tommy Pham
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Wil Myers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against LHPs this season.
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Chicago White Sox (-140) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Orioles – Jorge Lopez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. We need to pay attention to the weather (I assume) with the storm on the east coast having wiped out a couple of games last night. I think that both of these offenses are very much in play and I always pick on Jorge Lopez. The Orioles have a couple of guys that can give Keuchel some trouble as well.
CWS 5-star plays: Yoan Moncada
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Leury Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against LHPs this season.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox (-130)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Vince Velasquez
Red Sox – Garrett Richards
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. Yet another game in Fenway with a double-digit total. The Phillies bats woke up in Chicago this week and they should continue it tonight in Boston. Both offenses should end up in my top 5 or 6 on the night as both of these SPs are capable of blow-up performances.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Didi Gregorius
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs this season.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays (-121)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Rays – Shane McClanahan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am a little shocked to see TB as the favorite with how solid Manoah has been while the Blue Jays also have the better overall offense. I will have to re-consider where TOR and TB land in my stack rankings as I always prefer the Blue Jays. The TB stack can always be sneaky as I think people tend to overlook them because of their constantly changing lineup.
TOR 5-star plays: George Springer, Vlad Guerrero
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against LHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Austin Meadows, Joey Wendle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs this season.
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-255)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Taylor Widener
Dodgers – David Price
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The word is that the Dodgers are going to stretch David Price back out to be a starter so I would assume he goes 4 or so in this one. The Dodgers bats are always going to be in play, especially as such gigantic home favorites. Turner-Muncy-Betts will probably end up one of my preferred trios on the slate.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against LHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 over the last week.
Los Angeles Angels (-130) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Angels – Alex Cobb
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am having a hard time reading this game as both SPs have the ability to shut down the opposition but they’ve been known to allow some HRs. The Angels have the most dangerous bat in baseball right now in Ohtani and it really doesn’t matter that much that he’s facing an LHP.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: David Fletcher, Jose Iglesias
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against LHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins (-195)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Matt Manning
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Maeda looked spectacular in his last start and that should propel him a bit against this DET squad. Manning has not looked good at the MLB level after struggling at AAA this season so the Twins and their power are certainly going to end up in play for GPP purposes.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Alex Kirilloff
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Boston Red Sox
- Chicago White Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day – Yoan Moncada, White Sox
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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