Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/08:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Max Scherzer
- Yu Darvish
- Taijuan Walker
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Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians (-145)
Pitchers:
Royals – Danny Duffy
Indians – Zach Plesac
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Plesac returns from the IL but he is going to be limited to about 60 pitches, according to reports. Duffy has been strong against CLE and at his best when on the road this season. This is one of those games that I don’t feel great about either way so I most likely stick to one-offs and mini-stacks. Franmil Reyes is extremely hot at the plate right now.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: Franmil Reyes
4-star plays: Amed Rosario, Cesar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against LHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-153) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Wednesday night’s game turned into an HR fest in Miami as the Marlins won with a walk-off HR from Aguilar, which was the 7th HR of the game. I expect this one to be lower scoring as Urias and Alcantara are both very strong SPs. I won’t blame you for stacking the Dodgers with how they’ve been playing.
LAD 5-star plays: Max Muncy
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against LHPs this season.
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (-111)
Pitchers:
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Both of these SPs are capable of putting up strong performances but they are also capable of getting hit around by the opposition. The Reds have some strong BvP in their favor against Houser. The Brewers lineup generally looks weak but they’ve been hot and getting production from everywhere.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Jesse Winker
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Omar Narvaez, Keston Hiura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs this season.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets (-170)
Pitchers:
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Walker might have some motivation for this start as deGrom just announced that he wasn’t going to pitch in the All-Star game and that Walker should take his spot. I could see him using this as a stage to show that he deserves to be there. Brubaker has solid stuff but he lacks any kind of consistency. The total means that he has to be in play for us.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .125 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: James McCann, Dominic Smith
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros (-153)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Astros – Lance McCullers Jr.
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I think that McCullers is a very interesting option as the A’s aren’t tearing the cover off of the ball and he’s had strong success against Olson in his career. I still like Olson as a 4-Star play because of his upside as he HR’d last night. Montas flashes elite stuff and then he has lapses where you blink and he’s allowed 4 runs in an inning.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Elvis Andrus
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs this season.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs (-111)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zach Eflin
Cubs – Adbert Alzolay
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Seeing a total of 8 right away makes me believe there should be some slight wind blowing in. We will need to check the forecast leading up to the game to see if we could get an explosion at Wrigley. Both of these offenses are capable of going off. I lean the PHI side but both of the SPs are certainly capable of providing GPP winning ceilings.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres (-140)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Max Scherzer
Padres – Yu Darvish
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. We get a great pitching match-up in this one but it’s a match-up that also could have some solo HRs hit. Scherzer is still nasty but he has an HR problem (mostly Solo shots) and Darvish can be nearly as elite but he makes mistakes as well. In my opinion, there is no reason to fully stack either side but picking the HRs could lead to some low-owned difference makers in your builds.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Yan Gomes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr., Wil Myers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs this season.
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Toronto Blue Jays (-210) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Orioles – Keegan Akin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11. It’s just a day ending in y as the Blue Jays should be EXTREMELY popular, yet again. Seeing an 11 total in a game outside of Coors is quite shocking. Manoah has flashed elite upside at the MLB level and while the Orioles have had some success against him, I think he makes for a very interesting GPP option.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against LHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
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Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-135)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Chi Chi Gonzalez
D’Backs – Jake Faria
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Here is the conundrum of this match-up, both offenses are bad while both of these SPs aren’t very good either. I am definitely more interested in stacking the offenses than I am in using either of these SPs at this point. I would probably stick to one-offs and mini-stacks from this game if I am going out of my way to target guys.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pavin Smith, David Peralta
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 against RHPs this season.
New York Yankees (-140) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Yankees bats have busted out a bit in this series so that is worrisome for a young guy like Gilbert in this one. Montgomery is certainly capable of strong performances but the Mariners are also, shockingly, capable of putting up a handful of runs against him.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Luis Torrens
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins (-135)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Twins – JA Happ
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. We could see some HRs in this game as both SPs can be hit hard. The Twins have strong numbers against LHPs, despite having a few LHBs in the lineup. Goodrum has absolutely dominated Happ in his career. I am sure there are going to be plenty of game stacks in GPPs so maybe a share of each SP could be a difference maker.
DET 5-star plays: Niko Goodrum
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against LHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Alex Kirilloff
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Minnesota Twins
MLB Dinger of the Day – Jesse Winker, Cincinnati
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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