Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/07:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Jacob deGrom
- Corbin Burnes
- Kyle Gibson
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St Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants (-172)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Johan Oviedo
Giants – Alex Wood
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Wood is definitely in play as I really like the way he’s thrown the ball over the course of the season. The Cardinals have a couple of guys who can hit LHPs but they aren’t destroying the baseball right now. The Giants offense is capable of putting up 7+ runs, especially against a guy like Oviedo.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against LHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: Alex Dickerson
4-star plays: Buster Posey, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Undecided
Marlins – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Max Muncy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against RHPs this season.
Cincinnati Reds (-145) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Reds – Sonny Gray
Royals – Brady Singer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Gray is a guy that I always consider because we know what he’s capable of doing when he’s on the mound. I am surprised at the total yet again in Kansas City. The Reds bats are always in play for GPP purposes as they hit RHPs extremely well and offer plenty of HR upside.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Jesse Winker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs this season.
Chicago White Sox (-135) @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Twins – Michael Pineda
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Lynn has the ability to rack up strikeouts but he also has an ability to get hit a bit because of his reliance on one pitch. The Twins have struggled against the White Sox of late but the White Sox lineup isn’t clicking. Pineda is coming off of the IL so we have to monitor any updates on his pitch count.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Trevor Larnach
4-star plays: Miguel Sano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs this season.
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Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets (-270) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Brewers – Brett Anderson
Mets – Jacob deGrom
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. We get deGrom against a hot brewers squad (even though they have now lost 2 in a row). He is always going to be in play and I mean that. He could be facing the AL All-Stars and I would still put my money on deGrom at this point. Yelich has actually dominated him in his career. Anderson is coming off of the IL so I think the Mets could be sneaky.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Kevin Pillar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against LHPs this season.
Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets – Game 2
Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Mets – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Remember that these games are 7-innings. We have to pay attention to which SP starts which game as we might not know until just before each of them.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros (-135)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Sean Manaea
Astros – Luis Garcia
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Manaea has impressive upside especially against an Astros lineup that could have a handful of LHBs. I do prefer the HOU bats over OAK bats as the A’s have struggled a bit of late. Garcia has impressed me enough to consider him a GPP option today.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Jed Lowrie
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against LHPs this season.
Philadelphia Phillies (-145) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Cubs – Alec Mills
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Seeing a total of 7 makes me believe that the wind will be blowing in while the temps have cooled down. Wheeler has had a spectacular season so far and I think he offers us massive upside against a Cubs squad that can strike out a TON. The Phillies bats have awoken in this series and if the wind is minimal, I could see some more HRs for them.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Jason Heyward
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres (-177)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Padres – Chris Paddack
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I could see both of these SPs putting up GPP winning type performances but I could also see both offenses doing the same. The Padres are an interesting stack for me as we know how dangerous the lineup is and some may avoid it because they see the name, Corbin, on the other side.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Starlin Castro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: Wil Myers
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr., Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against LHPs this season.
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Boston Red Sox (-125) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez
Angels – Andrew Heaney
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This feels like the ultimate GPP game for us. Both of these SPs are capable of racking up 9-11 strikeouts while dominating for 7 innings but they are both also capable of giving up multiple HRs and 6 runs in 4-5 innings. I am not sure if Ohtani will be in the lineup after pitching yesterday.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against LHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Iglesias, Max Stassi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against LHPs this season.
Toronto Blue Jays (-213) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Orioles – Matt Harvey
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. We get the chalky Blue Jays yet again as they have seen Harvey a couple of times this season and have hit some HRs against him in their individual careers. Ryu hasn’t been overly sharp for a bit now but it’s really tough to trust the Baltimore offense. Their offense could certainly do enough to be GPP viable but I would prefer using one-offs over a full stack.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, George Springer
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against RHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians @ Tampa Bay Rays – Game 1
Pitchers:
Indians – JC Mejia
Rays – Michael Wacha
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
CLE 5-star plays: Franmil Reyes
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Cesar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians @ Tampa Bay Rays – Game 2
Pitchers:
Indians – Sam Hentges
Rays – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against LHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Zunino, Wander Franco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against LHPs this season.
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Atlanta Braves (-157) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Braves – Drew Smyly
Pirates – Wil Crowe
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Can the Braves finally wake up for us? They are in a plus spot, it’s just a matter of actually coming through. There is some positive BvP in their favor. Smyly is capable of being solid enough for GPPs and the Pirates offense never feels like a full stack candidate.
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 against LHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
D’Backs – Humberto Castellanos
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: Christian Walker
4-star plays: Josh Rojas, Nick Ahmed
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 against RHPs this season.
New York Yankees (-121) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Yankees – Domingo German
Mariners – Yusei Kikuchi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. German has struggled quite a bit and Kikuchi was just named an All-Star yet the Yankees are favored. Their bats woke up last night and we could see a higher scoring game in this one. I don’t have an issue stacking either side but I would prefer to mini-stack Seattle over a full stack.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Jake Fraley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers (-145)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Casey Mize
Rangers – Kyle Gibson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Gibson should be an extremely popular SP. A little trivia for you, Gibson has the highest WAR of any SP in the A.L. this season. Mize has been respectable enough that I could see pairing both of these SPs in a DK lineup and moving onto your bats. As it sits right now, I prefer to use one-offs if attacking either SP.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, Willi Castro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: Joey Gallo
4-star plays: Nate Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Philadelphia Phillies
- San Francisco Giants
MLB Dinger of the Day – Christian Walker, Arizona (going off the wall)
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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