Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/05:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Kevin Gausman
- Brandon Woodruff
- Joe Musgrove
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St Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants (-180)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Kwang-hyun Kim
Giants – Kevin Gausman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. This is an early game so it’s not part of the main slates, which is a bit surprising since it’s in SF. Gausman has been absolutely spectacular this season and he gets a Cardinals squad that’s coming out of a series in Coors. Great spot for Gausman and the Giants.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Buster Posey, Darrin Ruf
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against LHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-157) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Walker Buehler
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. One of a handful of games with a lower total on the slate. We get a strong SP match-up between Buehler and Rogers in this one. The Dodgers have gone on a winning streak since they were no-hit by the Cubs but they take on an SP that I am a big fan of. I am not sure I can use Rogers much but I will be secretly rooting for him. Buehler should end up a pretty popular option but I don’t believe this game is on the main slate either.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Albert Pujols
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against RHPs this season.
Cincinnati Reds @ Kansas City Royals (-115)
Pitchers:
Reds – Vladimir Gutierrez
Royals – Mike Minor
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. I am still caught off guard by seeing a double-digit total in KC. This ballpark is not an offensive park at all but I do have to agree with the total here. Both of these offenses are in plus spots but I think I prefer the KC side slightly as the Reds are less dangerous against LHPs and on the road.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Tyler Stephenson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against LHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs this season.
Chicago White Sox (-111) @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Twins – Bailey Ober
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Another double-digit total game that should be fairly popular for stacking purposes. The White Sox have hit a few HRs against Ober already and the Twins have some guys that show a ton of power. Cease has K upside in his arm if you wanted to get creative but it’s really just the offenses that we should be targeting.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Brian Goodwin, Andrew Vaughn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs this season.
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Milwaukee Brewers (-160) @ New York Mets
Pitchers:
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Mets – Tylor Megill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Woodruff is fresh off of an All-Star selection and taking on a Mets squad that just played a doubleheader yesterday. Alonso and Nimmo have had success against Woodruff but overall, the match-up is pretty decent for him. The Brewers just ended their 11 game winning streak but should be in a spot to bounce back. Megill has been really strong against RHBs but has had his struggles with LHBs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Omar Narvaez, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs this season.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Phillies – Matt Moore
Cubs – Zach Davies
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Odubel Herrera, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against LHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres (-210)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Jon Lester
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Padres busted out a bit recently and Machado seems to be heating up at the plate. Musgrove has been excellent at home and now he takes on a WSH squad that’s dealing with some injury issues. Lester just doesn’t have the stuff to get outs consistently any longer so SD should be a fairly popular stack.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Yan Gomes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr., Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against LHPs this season.
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Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Martin Perez
Angels – Jose Suarez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. A double-digit total in Anaheim, for a night game. I can’t say we have seen that all that often with the potential marine layer impacting the baseball. Both of these SPs are capable of getting knocked around a bit and we should see some extra-base hits in this one.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against LHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: David Fletcher, Taylor Ward
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against LHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians @ Tampa Bay Rays (-203)
Pitchers:
Indians – Logan Allen
Rays – Rich Hill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Allen takes on a TB squad that can strike out a lot against LHPs while offering a lower ISO than you’d expect with some of the bats they have. The Indians lineup doesn’t look very daunting overall but they have been decent. They need Ramirez to return to the lineup every day.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against LHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Zunino, Wander Franco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against LHPs this season.
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Atlanta Braves (-190) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Braves – Max Fried
Pirates – Chase De Jong
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Fried should be a fairly popular option as he’s a huge road favorite. The Braves offense, while struggling somewhat, should be popular as the top of the lineup is as dangerous as any in baseball. Albies has been scorching and Freeman is really starting to heat up.
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 against LHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers (-145)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Wily Peralta
Rangers – Kolby Allard
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We could see some sneaky offensive performances in this game. Allard is a capable SP who was a top level prospect at one point in his journey to the majors. Both of these teams can have strikeout issues but both of the SPs can get hit around. Peralta has had a long journey in returning to the mound as he looked promising years ago with the Brewers.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, Eric Haase
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against LHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: Joey Gallo
4-star plays: Nate Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Chicago White Sox
- Kansas City Royals
- Minnesota Twins
MLB Dinger of the Day – Manny Machado, SD Padres
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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