Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I hope you all have a great 4th of July, full of fireworks, great weather, BBQ, and hopefully a few extra bucks with some MLB DFS. As always, I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too.
A look at pitchers
Overall the pitching seems pretty similar to yesterday, with a handful of good options and KSCOREs surrounded by a mixed bag of red and yellow all over on the carnage report. We have some KSCOREs as low as 307, with 636 being on the upper end, and everything in between. Same goes for some of the other important stats, such as SIERA and x/wOBA. Fun!
For the main slate, Giolito looks to be a good all-around option. There are others in good spots too, such as Peralta and Morton, as well as some cheaper guys who would make interesting GPP targets. As always, be sure to check the coach’s notes page to see who they’re most interested in.
Four our afternoon slate, Sandoval looks pretty solid, and a few others are in good spots that could help them out a bit. Marquez is pitching at Coors, but he’s done it plenty of times before, so I could see him keeping the Cardinals at bay.
Main slate
San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies
We’ll kick things off with the Padres and Phillies, with Snell and Velasquez looking to take the mound. Neither are particularly intimidating right now, so I think there are some targets worth looking at here on both sides. We know Snell has elite upside in him somewhere, it’s just hard to know when he’s going to find it again, so I’d probably lean GPP here if at all possible.
Padres 5 star plays – Tatis, Machado
Padres 4 star plays – Pham, Croneworth, Hosmer
GPP note – These bats have been hitting righties pretty well as of late, so don’t let any of the RvR matchups scare youaway
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Hoskins, McCutchen
GPP note – Snell has been fairly soft to both sides of the plate, but is actually giving up more power to lefties right now than he is righties
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Up next are the Brewers and Pirates, with Anderson and Peralta facing off. Peralta looks pretty good on all fronts, which will probably make him a fairly popular choice. He’s got one of the best KSCOREs on the day with solid numbers all over, so the Pirates might be in a bit of trouble again here. Anderson is pretty average, though that somewhat high SIERA could be telling.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Adames, Yelich
GPP note – Anderson has your typical splits, being very strict to lefties but generous to righties
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds
GPP note – Peralta has been a tough cookie, not allowing much to anybody and striking out over a third of his opponents. Tread lightly
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays
The Rays and Jays are up next, and both pitchers look pretty good on the carnage report. There’s a good chance we see more fireworks from the pitchers than we do the bats, but cherry-picking targets might still be on the table. Just don’t be surprised if they go the under here.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Franco, Margot
GPP note – A few decent bats here and there, but it doesn’t look like big stacks are the ticket here
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Semien, Guerrero, Bichette
GPP note – Traditional splits would work here, but even though Yarbrough isn’t striking out a ton of batters, he’s managing his opponents fairly well. I like one-offs and smaller stacks a lot here
Houston Astros at Cleveland Indians
The Astros face the Indians here next, and with how the Astros and Quantrill have been, well…probably some fireworks in the making. They won’t be sneaky by any means, so if you go here, try to get creative with other lesser-owned stacks, wrap-arounds, or something else funky. Perhaps taking a righty against Greinke, since he’s allowing more to them than he is lefties?
Astros 5 star plays – Altuve/Alvarez/Brantley
Astros 4 star plays – Correa, Gurriel
GPP note – These guys are eating up righties and this one is allowing some power to lefties. Won’t be sneaky, but could be full of fireworks
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Ramirez
GPP note – Greinke has some reverse splits woes going on, so taking some RvR shots here isn’t a terrible idea
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
Up next are the White Sox and Tigers, and like the previous game, this one looks to heavily favor the visitors. Giolito has been rock solid…Manning not so much. Everything is in play here for the White Sox for cash games and tournaments alike, as they look to be a good source of fantasy production today. The Tigers, well, not so much. I’d only go there if you just can’t find any other way to make things work with your lineups. Honestly, I’d probably just try a little harder!
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Anderson, Goodwin, Grandal
GPP note – Manning is allowing a lot to both sides of the plate, so small and big stacks are both in play here
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Schoop, Baddoo
GPP note – They had their fun yesterday, but I suspect Giolito will limit that today. He’s allowing slightly more to righties, so if you really want to go here, you can try that
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
The Cubs and Reds are next, with Miley and Hendricks looking to see who can grab the upper hand. While I do think Miley has the slight edge, neither look as strong as guys like Giolito, so I’m not sure that we’ll find our cash game pitchers here. Neither has an overwhelming KSCORE either, so you’ll really have to dig to find a reason to roll these guys out. As for the bats, I like the smaller approach here too, because while these pitchers aren’t mowing down everybody they face, they aren’t receiving the same treatment, either.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Bryant, Rizzo, Baez
GPP note – Miley is doing fairly well and these guys have seen a lot of righties lately, so this might not be the best matchup for big stacks
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Castellanos, Winker, Votto
GPP note – Mostly traditional splits, though Hendricks is giving up power to both sides of the plate. A good small stack option
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
The Marlins are Braves are our next game, and nobody is surprised to hear this, but the Braves are in a pretty good spot here. Morton looks really good on the carnage report, and while Thompson doesn’t look terrible, a lot of these Atlanta bats are just smashing everything thrown their way. It looks to be a safe bet to go with Atlanta for this one, for both pitching and batting.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Marte, Duvall
GPP note – Not a ton to love here, unless you want to go against the grain
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna, Freeman
Braves 4 star plays – Albies, Riley, Riley, Heredia
GPP note – Thompson has been strict, but these guys are smashing righties, so don’t let that stop you. LvR, RvR, doesn’t really matter here
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
The final main slate game features the Twins and Royals, with Maeda and Keller squaring off. Keller is having plenty of issues and isn’t commanding the game, so this is a good spot for the Twins to do some damage. Maeda has his moments, but overall is doing fairly good, so I think he can manage the first handful of innings without too much trouble. While I do think other pitchers have more upside, he does sport a 500 KSCORE, which is nothing to scoff at.
Twins 5 star plays – Cruz
Twins 4 star plays – Donaldson, Kepler, Kirilloff
GPP note – Keller is soft and these guys are itching to grab a win at the K. This is a good bounce-back spot
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Perez, Santana
GPP note – Maeda is giving up a little bit to lefties, but carnage is certainly on his side for this one. I think smaller squads would be okay, but I’m not too keen on full stacks
The MLB DFS Research Station is my #1 source for research every single day and is one of the VIP Only tools our members have access to daily. The info in the MLB Research Station includes today’s 
DFS Army Projection, Adjusted BVP matchups and much more. This tool will cut your daily research time in half. If you’re familiar with Ben you already know the time they’ve put into the “Sheets” and are extremely happy to provide them as a part of your DFS Army VIP Membership this year.
Afternoon slates
St Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies
As we move on to the afternoon games, we start with the Cardinals and Rockies for another Coors game. Martinez is a lot like Keller, allowing plenty to both sides of the plate, giving the Rockies a better chance of going off than they’ve had in some other recent matchups. The Cardinals will face Marquez, who certainly knows how to handle his home field, and there’s really only one bat in that lineup (Goldy) that should really worry him.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt
GPP note – Marquez knows how to pitch at Coors, so don’t be surprised to see a bit of a dud here
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Rodgers, Blackmon, Story
GPP note – Things look pretty good for the Rockies for this matchup, so let’s see if they can take advantage of it. Martinez is soft to both sides of the plate
Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels
Another seemingly lob-sided game, the Orioles and Angels are up next, with Eshelman and Sandoval at the helm. Things don’t look great for the O’s here, as Sandoval is taking care of things pretty well. He does allow some power to lefties, so that could be one place to attack, but I wouldn’t bet the house on these goes going off on him. On the other hand, Eshelman has some clear weaknesses, a lot of which are coming from the right side of the plate. His carnage looks pretty tough, so let’s see Angels can light up some more fireworks.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Hays
GPP note – Sandoval isn’t allowing a whole lot, except for some power to lefties, so it could be worth taking a shot or two with some of them
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani, Walsh
Angels 4 star plays – Rendon, Ward
GPP note – Eshelman has been very generous to righties as of late, so be sure to include them in your stacks
Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics
After a late game last night, the Red Sox and Athletics will have another go at once another, this time with Pivetta and Kaprielian getting the nod. Both have pretty average carnage scores, though Pivetta does have a nice KSCORE, one of the highest of these games. At first glance he looks to be a pretty boom-or-bust pitching option, so let’s see what our coaches have to say about it.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Martinez, Bogaerts, Renfroe
GPP note – Typical splits here, but some Boston righties have been smashing both sides, so they’re all in play..as usual
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Kemp, Laureano,
GPP note – Didn’t do quite what I was thinking they could yesterday, but perhaps I was a day early. Pivetta has been pretty soft, so…
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Foltynewicz and the Rangers take on Flexen and the Mariners in our next game, and it’s mostly business as usual here. The Mariners like to strikeout, but Folty is having some issues of his own, including an awfully low 14.1% strikeout rate over the last month or so. I always like to jump on spots like that, because it generally favors the offense more than often than it allows the pitcher to strikeout above where he’s been. Some reverse splits numbers are in play against Flexen, and if Gallo plays, he’ll be looking for another home run.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Gallo, Garcia, Lowe
GPP note – Reverse splits are in play here, as is Gallo the home run machine
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Haniger, Crawford, Seager, France
GPP note – Folty’s numbers are creeping up, and he’s allowing plenty to both sides of the plate…especially power. Certainly a potential blow-up spot
MLB season is upon us! DFSArmy VIP Members had a big season last year and are in for some big things again this season! We will have cheat sheets, breakdowns, and many other tools to help make you successful in one of the more volatile fantasy sports.
Late slates
New York Mets at New York Yankees
As the second game of a double header, this game will only see 7 innings, so be aware of that. The Subway Series continues here, but unfortunately as of right now I don’t know who’s going to be starting on the mound, so be sure to do your due diligence before getting carried away with this game. I’d suspect the usual bats are in play here, but for now, let’s move on.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor, Alonso
GPP note – No starting pitchers are out as of the time this was written, so I don’t have a ton to add just yet
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge/Stanton/LeMahieu, Voit/Torres
GPP note – Same as above – keep your eyes peeled on the coach’s notes page to see who the strongest targets are
San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
Our final game of the night features the Giants and Diamondbacks, with DeSclafani and Smith on the hill. We have a mixture of reverse and traditional splits, so this is a good game to get a little funky to make your lineups with chalkier bats pop a little more. I think the Giants take this one, as the Diamondbacks just don’t have a ton to fight back with in this matchup.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Yastrzemski, Crawford, Flores
GPP note – More reverse splits, so don’t be afraid to take a few shots with some lefties here
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Escobar, Walker
GPP note – Good traditional splits here, though the lefties here aren’t doing a whole lot outside of Escobar. Could be a boom-or-bust situation…like it usually is with these guys
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Houston Astros – I know, I know…nobody saw this chalky stack coming. Truth is though, they’ll be popular for good reason, so don’t be afraid to eat some chalk here, because there are plenty of places to stand out elsewhere.
- Chicago White Sox – Solid matchup against Manning and whoever else the Tigers can throw at these guys, I think this is a good spot for them to rack up some hits and runs.
- Minnesota Twins – Here I go again, rooting against my Royals. But hey, unless Keller can calm things down, it’s hard not to attack him. This is a good spot for them to go bonkers, so grab a few shares today.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me today, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page today to see who they are most interested in today. Good luck today, and have a safe and happy 4th of July!
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combine that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.
