Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! It’s been a while, but I’ll be your host today as we head into 4th of July weekend. If you don’t remember me, I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend. For now, let’s take a look at what we have to work with on this split-slate Saturday.
A look at pitchers
It’s not the prettiest day for pitching, but at least it’s not the ugliest. We have a few big names, some decent KSCOREs, some not so good ones, and a mixed bag of other stats up and down the carnage report. We should have enough good pitching for our cash games, but there are certainly some interesting GPP choices in the mix today.
For the early birds, Darvish tops the salary charts, and it looks to be business as usual for him against the Phillies. There’s not a ton of BvP in this one, but they are at least somewhat familiar with him. His KSCORE is pretty nice at 579, which is to be expected of him, but he’s actually not the highest on this slate. There are two above them, and depending on how our ownership projections look, they could be strong GPP pivots. Be sure to take a look at the coach’s notes page to see how they stack up!
On the main slate we have the likes of Kershaw and Odorizzi, both near the top of the carnage report. We also have a Coors game on the table, which is always fun to work with. And to make things even more interesting, we have several pitchers with .400+ xwOBA/wOBA, 4.50+ SIERA, and a bunch of 300-400 KSCOREs. Yikes. It might not yet be the 4th, but I think we’ll see some early fireworks on this slate.
Early slate
New York Mets at New York Yankees
We’ll kick things off with the Subway Series opener, though unfortunately this one won’t be on our normal early slate (unless you like those all day ones). Vegas has us down for 8 runs, most of them to come from the home team. I have both pitchers down for fairly decent carnage scores though, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the under here. That is, if we even see them play. The forecast doesn’t look very promising, but we’ll see what happens!
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor, Alonso
GPP note – Not a ton to love here, but McCann has a BvP homer off of Montgomery
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – LeMahieu/Stanton/Voit (some BvP), Judge, Sanchez, Torres, etc
GPP note – Lots of RvR here, though Walker isn’t super strict to them, so don’t be shy. I don’t know that there will be a ton of offense in this game, but most will probably come from here
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays
Our next early game isn’t on the DraftKings slate, but it is on the FanDuel one. Vegas likes this game, and we started with a nice 10.5 over/under. Like the previous game, both starting pitchers have fairly nice carnage scores, so the fireworks here might be a little delayed…like those artillery shells we’ll be shooting off tomorrow night. Games like this, it’s not a bad idea to check the bullpens and see who might be up, and target a few bats that would be in good spots in the mid/late game, rather than against the starters.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Franco, Meadows, Lowe
GPP note – Very little BvP here, so maybe plan to attack the bullpen instead of Stripling
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Semien, Bichette, Guerrero
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Springer, Hernandez, pretty much anybody
GPP note – The top/middle of the lineup looks solid as always, but the bottom could really come into play for this one
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Up next are the Brewers and Pirates, and they come in with an 8.5 over/under. Most of the action is in the favor of the Brewers here, though neither team can be called a champion of consistency. Lauer has been wildly unpredictable, and Ponce, well, hasn’t looked fantastic in his two starts. The same can be said about a lot of the bats here, which makes this game one of those that could go for anywhere between 3 and 15 runs. It seems a little sketchy for cash games, but boy would it be fun to target in GPP!
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Urias, Narvaez/Adames, Garcia
GPP note – Ponce has averaged about 2 hits allowed per inning thus far, so if that continues, you’ll want exposure to the top of the order to jump on him
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds, Frazier
GPP note – Very boom or bust matchup. Probably a bust, unless the bad Lauer shows up, in which we might see some lower-owned booms
San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies
The Padres and Phillies are up next, coming in with an 8 over/under. We get Darvish for this one, who is certainly in a better spot than the sorta-struggling Eflin is. While it doesn’t look as bad as the New York game, there could be some weather issues here, so be sure to keep an eye as we approach the early lock time. This is another one that might be a little iffy for cash games, especially if it looks to be more wet than dry.
Padres 5 star plays – Tatis
Padres 4 star plays – Pham, Machado, Hosmer (some BvP)
GPP note – Like Lauer, Eflin has had some ups and downs all season, so be sure to have some lineups attacking this spot
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper?
GPP note – Some BvP here, but I think Darvish rolls through the lineup. A one off or mini-stack might be okay, but I don’t know that a full stack is the way to go
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
Up next we have the Twins and my Royals, with Griffin Jax and Duffy facing off. Neither pitcher has a good carnage score, and unfortunately for me, the Twins are awfully familiar with Duffy. At the time I’m typing this, we don’t have any Vegas numbers, but I suspect the Twins will come out on top here.
Twins 5 star plays – Cruz (BvP)
Twins 4 star plays – Polanco/Sano (BvP), Donaldson,
GPP note – Like a few before, Duffy is having some real struggles this year, and with how much the Twins know him, I expect them to light up the scoreboard. Be sure to get the BvP guys in, and whoever else is hitting for power
Royals 5 star plays – Merrifield
Royals 4 star plays – Perez, Santana
GPP note – Jax has allowed 4 homers in 12 innings, and while the K isn’t the best place for a home run derby, this is a decent place to attack. Don’t forget the speedsters that can turn doubles into triples at this big park
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
Next up are the Cubs and Reds, two 4-letter teams with a 9 over/under. I always liked this field for some offense, though Mahle is trying his best to look like a stud this year (and is often doing a fine job at it). On the flip side, Alzolay has a higher price tag, but carnage does not favor him so well today. We’ll see how things play out, but I tend to agree with Vegas and the home team for this one.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, Pederson
GPP note – A pretty good chunk of BvP, but a lot of strikeouts with it. It might not be a bad idea to avoid those who have struggled in this matchup, especially since Mahle is doing so well this year
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Winker, Castellanos, India, Votto/Suarez
GPP note – Alzolay is in a rough patch, so attacking him now isn’t a bad idea, even if his price tag says not to. No BvP here, but the generous ballpark makes up for it
Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
We head to the motor city for our next game, where the White Sox and Tigers come in with an 8.5 over/under. Both pitchers are cheap and fairly random, but both have a 25+ point ceiling for DFS, so I don’t hate taking shots here. Heck, one of them as a KSCORE that’s just barely behind Darvish’s, so this game could certainly produce a tournament-winning pitcher. Alas, they’re cheap for a reason, as there is the increased risk of both pitchers getting blown up, so be sure to hedge your bets with some of these bats.
White Sox 5 star plays – Anderson
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu, Vaughn
GPP note – There are a bunch of cheap bats here going up against a pitcher that is somewhat boom-or-bust, but isn’t afraid to give up a home run even with a good performance, so don’t be shy here
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Schoop (BvP), Cabrera, Grossman/Haase
GPP note – If you decide to go here, don’t be shy..go full throttle with some big stacks and hope Keuchel has another bad game. If you find yourself having leftover salary in those lineups, don’t sweat it too much, it’s part of the experience!
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
Our final early-slate game will feature the Marlins and Braves, along with a 9 over/under. Muller pitched a brilliant 5-inning gem last week, and seeing that the Marlins aren’t afraid to strikeout, he could be a cheap SP2 for some tournament play. It’ll be interesting to see how long they let him throw, but I would think we would at least get another 4-5 innings out of him here. As for Alcantara, he’s another expensive pitcher that’s having some troubles right now, so don’t be afraid to take some shots against him here.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Marte
GPP note – There’s a non-zero chance that Muller shows up for another strong outing, so don’t automatically treat him like a $5k gas-can
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna, Freeman, Albies, pretty much everyone 1-6
GPP note – These bats can really pour it on, and if Alcantara’s struggles continue, we could see some booms here. The bottom of the order doesn’t look strong, but bad pitching can bring them to life, so get some wrap-around stacks too
The MLB DFS Research Station is my #1 source for research every single day and is one of the VIP Only tools our members have access to daily. The info in the MLB Research Station includes today’s 
DFS Army Projection, Adjusted BVP matchups and much more. This tool will cut your daily research time in half. If you’re familiar with Ben you already know the time they’ve put into the “Sheets” and are extremely happy to provide them as a part of your DFS Army VIP Membership this year.
Main slate
Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals
We move onto the main slate and start with the Dodgers and Nationals, as well as their 8.5 over/under. Kershaw gets the nod against Espino, a pitcher who continues the early slate’s theme of roller-coaster pitching. They’ve started to let him pitch longer, but I have a feeling he won’t be in this one for too long. Keep an eye on the weather, because as of right now, we have some rain approaching up to around lock.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts, Muncy
Dodgers 4 star plays – Bellinger, Turner
GPP note – They’ve never seen Espino, but I wouldn’t really worry about that here. This is a good spot for the Dodgers to score some runs
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto
GPP note – A lot of BvP here, with fewer strikeouts than you would think, so don’t be afraid to hedge your non-Kershaw lineups with some Nats bats
Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics
The Red Sox and Athletics are up next, and honestly, I thought we’d see a little more than a 9 over/under here. Carnage doesn’t really favor either pitcher, nor do most of their performances as of late. Seriously though, Richards has given up 40 hits in his last 5 games. 40!! We know how quickly the Red Sox can put up runs, so be sure you’ve got your exposure to this one.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Martinez, Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Bogaerts, Hernandez, Verdugo,
GPP note – These guys don’t need me to talk them up, you know the drill. Do be sure to grab some of the cheaper bats too though – some wrap-around stacks could fit nicely
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Chapman, Olson/Lowry/Murphy (BvP)
GPP note – Some of these bats are a little cold, but between the BvP and Richards giving out hits and walks like candy, I think we could see them heat up pretty quickly
Houston Astros at Cleveland Indians
The Astros and Indians are up next, with a more respectable 10 over/under. Odorizzi was fairly steady most of June, and he’ll look to start that way in July as well. Morgan is getting more innings, and seems to have some decent strikeout stuff, but also is giving up some hits, so we’ll see how he fares against these Astros bats. I actually don’t mind having exposure to all parts of this game – both pitchers and both offenses – as I could see any of them offering slate-breaking upside.
Astros 5 star plays – Altuve
Astros 4 star plays – Correa, Brantley, Gurriel
GPP note – Like the Red Sox, consider some wrap-arounds with the cheaper bats down low, in case Morgan isn’t up to snuff here
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Ramirez (BvP),
GPP note – I think one-offs or mini-stacks would be best here. I think Odorizzi is too steady right now to allow big stacks to go off
St Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies
We head to Chalks Field next (I mean Coors), for the Cardinals and Rockies with their 12 over/under. It’s always fun to run from the chalk, but as you’re deciding where to go, keep in mind that both of these pitchers are lacking sorely in the strikeout department.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Arenado/Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – Molina, Carlson/O’Neil/DeJong
GPP note – Freeland knows how to pitch at Coors, but he’s not striking many people out. It looks to be another spot to put up some runs
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon, Story, Hampson, Cron
GPP note – Same as above – LeBlanc isn’t very intimidating, so this is a good spot for the Rockies to rebound
MLB season is upon us! DFSArmy VIP Members had a big season last year and are in for some big things again this season! We will have cheat sheets, breakdowns, and many other tools to help make you successful in one of the more volatile fantasy sports.
Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels
We head out west as we start to round out this slate, with the Orioles facing off with the Angels. I don’t have anything from Vegas as of yet, but wouldn’t you know it, we have a couple more pitchers that have had plenty of ups and downs as of late. Cobb should be in a decent spot, but if he continues his trend downwards, he could let the O’s have a little more than they should have otherwise.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Mullins, Mountcastle
GPP note – This looks to be a risky, but potentially rewarding, spot to attack. I think it’ll depend more on Cobb and how he’s feeling than it will this offense, but if you’re feeling bold, you can try your luck here
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani, Walsh
Angels 4 star plays – Rendon, Gosselin, whoever else you can fit in
GPP note – Lopez is trying to catch up to Richards and his 40 hits in 5 games. Dinner is hot – it’s time to feast (that means play these guys)
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Up next are the Rangers and Mariners, along with their 8.5 over/under. At first glance this looks to be a middle-of-the road game with pitchers that you could say about the same about. However, one of them has the second-worst carnage score of all 15 games today, so I think we might see a little something here! There was a time when these two teams liked to run up the score on one other, and I hope we see that again today.
Rangers 5 star plays – Gallo
Rangers 4 star plays – White
GPP note – Even if you don’t go for big stacks here, Gallo probably hits another home run
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Seager (BvP), Haniger, Crawford
GPP note – Lots of cheap bats with a decent implied total. Why not?
San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
And finally, we finish the night off with the Giants and Diamondbacks, but once again I don’t have anything from Vegas yet. Unfortunately, I don’t have enough from either pitcher to form a carnage score yet either, so we’ll have to check out the coach’s notes page to see if either are worthy.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Posey, Yastrzemski, Crawford
GPP note – Not a ton to go off of here with Faria just yet, but there are several steady bats to pick from here that won’t break the bank
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Walker/Rojas/Cabrera
GPP note – I don’t expect a ton out of this offense, and you may have to really dig to find a good reason to go here
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- St Louis Cardinals / Colorado Rockies – it’s a Coors slate, so by default these guys are up top. A good spot for both teams, facing starters who aren’t striking out many people. Expect them to be chalky, though.
- Oakland Athletics – I haven’t played in a game of baseball in over 15 years, but I think even I could get a hit off of Richards. I expect some carnage here!
- Los Angeles Angels – Lopez isn’t looking too great either, and I think this offense does a number on him.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me today, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page today to see who they are most interested in today. Good luck today, and have a safe and happy 4th of July!
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combine that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.
