Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/02:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Kyle Gibson
- Max Scherzer
- Sonny Gray
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St Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Johan Oviedo
Rockies – Chi Chi Gonzalez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12. We get an impressive total for this game but, for some reason, I am not overly interested in stacking the game at all. I think the Cardinals are perfectly fine options but they aren’t scorching hot by any means. The Rockies have a couple of guys swinging it well but they aren’t very strong right now either.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Dylan Carlson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brendan Rodgers, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Washington Nationals (-111)
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Nationals – Max Scherzer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We get an excellent SP match-up in this one. Urias has had an up and down season so far but he gets a team that performs better against RHPs overall thanks to how Schwarber has been destroying baseballs. Scherzer is always in play, even against a tough Dodgers lineup. I don’t mind playing some mini-stacks from this game for GPP purposes, even against strong SPs.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Max Muncy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Starlin Castro, Ryan Zimmerman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against LHPs this season.
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Twins – JA Happ
Royals – Brady Singer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. I am really shocked to see a double-digit total in Kansas City. That is really eye opening to me so we should look to get stacks of both sides. Happ has really struggled and the Royals have plenty of BvP in their favor plus a couple other guys who are swinging it really well. The Twins have strong ISOs against RHPs so the power aspect is ALWAYS in play for them.
MIN 5-star plays: Josh Donaldson
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Trevor Larnach
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against LHPs this season.
Chicago White Sox (-153) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Tigers – Casey Mize
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The White Sox will be without Moncada in this series so that dings their offense slightly. Lynn is always a steady option and the Tigers are a pretty cold offense overall right now. Mize has flashed the plus stuff that made him the #1 overall pick a few years ago but he seems to lack punchout stuff, which is worrisome, as the White Sox bats woke up against the Twins.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Andrew Vaughn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
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New York Mets @ New York Yankees (-135)
Pitchers:
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Montgomery is a really intriguing option for me tonight as the Mets, overall, aren’t swinging it very well. Pete Alonso is the big worry as he’s been heating up. Walker is such a strong pitcher and having a very good season that I think I would prefer to go with mini-stacks of the Yankees lineup. They top is super dangerous with their hitting ability plus power, especially in Yankee stadium.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, James McCann
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against LHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs this season.
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds (-157)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Alec Mills
Reds – Sonny Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I was shocked to see a total so high as Gray has dominated the roster of the Cubs in his career. Mills is a soft-tossing guy who doesn’t have pinpoint control so HRs could be an issue. The Cubs lineup has looked pretty weak overall of late with Bryant and Rizzo having dealt with injury issues, so that’s something to keep an eye on.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Jason Heyward
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Jesse Winker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs this season.
San Francisco Giants (-145) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Giants – Alex Wood
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am always drawn to Alex Wood for some reason. He started out super strong and has been steady, for the most part. We know that the D’Backs are a very weak offense and they can get somewhat LH heavy with some of their lineups. Gallen has really struggled this season with injury issues and consistency. He could surprise any time he takes the mound or the Giants could score 6 in the first 4 innings.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Steven Dugger, Buster Posey
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against RHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Nick Ahmed
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against LHPs this season.
San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies (-121)
Pitchers:
Padres – Chris Paddack
Phillies – Matt Moore
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I was totally shocked to see the Phillies as the favorite with Moore pitching against the Padres. I feel stronger about the Padres offense for GPP stacking purposes than I do about the Phillies against Paddack. The Phillies do have a couple of guys who are swinging it decently well while also having had success against Paddack.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Wil Myers, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against LHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Nick Maton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against RHPs this season.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels (-160)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Keegan Akin
Angels – Griffin Canning
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I think this game is sneaky for GPP purposes as I know there are people out there that tend to avoid late night, west coast games because of the marine layer. Seeing a total at 9.5 really opens my eyes plus the 2 pitchers taking the mound are guys that can get hit around a bit. I feel more comfortable with a mini-stack of the Orioles while fully stacking the Angels.
BAL 5-star plays: Cedric Mullins
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Jose Iglesias
4-star plays: David Fletcher, Phil Gosselin
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against LHPs this season.
Houston Astros (-180) @ Cleveland Indians
Pitchers:
Astros – Lance McCullers Jr
Indians – Sam Hentges
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The Astros should be popular yet again but they have let some people down of late. McCullers has elite ability but I haven’t looked into his spin rates of late to see if he’s somebody who skirted the rules a bit for his curveball. As much as I like McCullers’ upside, I think I am going to end up on the Indians bats a bit for GPP purposes.
HOU 5-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Myles Straw
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against LHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Bobby Bradley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season.
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (-153)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Braves – Drew Smyly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. A few of the Braves hitters have had success against Lopez and he’s somebody who I prefer to use when he’s at home. Against Atlanta, he has given up 10 runs on 15 hits in just 7 innings so far this season. Smyly has thrown the ball decent at times so I don’t think I want to use too many Marlins bats other than Marte at this point. Duvall is a one-off HR play tonight.
MIA 5-star plays: Starling Marte
4-star plays: Adam Duvall
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against LHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs this season.
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Milwaukee Brewers (-135) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Brewers bats have awoken of late so we should think about riding them a bit for GPPs. They don’t have the consistent guys for cash games, in my opinion. Houser and Brubaker are certainly viable options tonight but ones that I don’t feel great about.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Urias, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .122 against RHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We could see a great pitching match-up or we could see both teams hit a few HRs and the game end up like 7-5. Both of these SPs have flashed upside but they also can give up some hits and runs. I feel stronger about the Red Sox bats than the A’s overall but I will have both sides.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Marwin Gonzalez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman
4-star plays: Chad Pinder, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs this season.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pitchers:
Rays – Luis Patino
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Meadows
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, George Springer
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against RHPs this season.
Texas Rangers (-111) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Rangers – Kyle Gibson
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. There are a couple of bats who are swinging it really well over the last week, in this game. If you take those guys out, you get a couple of pretty weak lineups overall so both of these SPs are strongly in play for me. Gallo has caught fire at this point and it’s only a matter of time before he gets traded I believe.
TEX 5-star plays: Joey Gallo
4-star plays: Nate Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Houston Astros
- St Louis Cardinals
- Kansas City Royals
MLB Dinger of the Day – Salvador Perez, KC Royals
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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