Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We head into the end of the weekend with an 11-game main slate, as well as 4 late/afternoon matchups. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
It looks like a pretty standard slate here for pitching, with a few big-name guys up top in decent spots (Darvish and Nola), some lower-priced guys in good spots (like Gray), some guys in rough spots (Ober, Oviedo), and all sorts of other options in between. It’s a good slate to grab a top arm in cash games and hedge them in tournaments, because both Darvish and Nola do give up a fair amount of power when they’re not striking out their opponents.
For the late slates it’s a similar situation with Woodruff leading the way, though he’s actually not the leader for carnage rankings. That belongs to Wood, and while his opponent isn’t in nearly as good of a spot, he does match him in strikeout upside, so there’s an interesting tournament option for you.
Main slate
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
We’ll kick things off with one of our high dollar pitchers of the day, Nola, who looks to face Toussaint and the Braves. Right off the bat we have a good hedge option here, as both Nola and the Braves’ offense offer plenty of upside, but only one can come out on top. Don’t forget about the Philly bats though, because if Toussaint isn’t on point right away, they could do some damage themselves.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Freeman, Swanson, Riley
GPP note – Nola gets his strikeouts, but he does give up some power along the way, so don’t be afraid to grab a few one-offs or mini-stacks here
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Hoskins
GPP note – A good chunk of this team is hitting some solid power against righties, giving them some stacking upside
Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles
Our Camden Yards game is up next, with the Nationals and Orioles and their questionable pitching in this one. Espino and Means look to get the start here, though I’m not sure either of them are going to be staples of many player pools. Means will make his second start since injury (the first one didn’t go very well), and Espino carries one of the highest SIERAs on the entire day, so I’m thinking we’ll see some offensive production from both sides of this one.
Nationals 5 star plays – Soto
Nationals 4 star plays – Turner, Bell, Harrison
GPP note – This team is smacking lefties pretty well, so if they get Means or some other lefty to start, consider going here
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Hays, Mullins
GPP note – Outside of the two above, this team isn’t hitting righties all that well right now, so I don’t know that big stacks are the answer
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Mets
Up next are the Blue Jays and Mets, both of which are getting to face pitchers that are struggling a bit. I can’t say that I love the pitching options here, but I do like the offenses. Any sort of exposure is in play here, from one-offs to full game stacks, so don’t be shy.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Semien, Bichette, Springer, Grichuk
GPP note – Another smash spot for the Blue Jays, Hill will get the start for his new team, but it won’t be easy. Any kind of exposure is in play here
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso, Nimmo, Conforto, Smith
GPP note – Stripling is allowing a lot of power to both sides of the plate, giving the NYM bats a chance to catch up with Toronto. Don’t be afraid to try some game stacks with these offenses
San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins
Darvish and the Padres face the Marlins next, though at this time I’m not sure who they will be facing (it was supposed to be Rogers but they moved him to the IL). Either way, Darvish is sure to be popular, but like I mentioned earlier, he does allow some power, so don’t be afraid to grab a few bats to hedge here. I’ll be more interested in the Padres’ offense if they face a lefty here.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Hosmer, Pham,
GPP note – This team can hit lefties well, so if they get one to start (Rogers was placed on the IL so he won’t be making this start), consider some stacks here
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Aguilar, Duvall
GPP note – Like Nola, Darvish will get his strikeouts, but he does allow higher-than-average power when contact is made. Some one-offs aren’t totally off the table here, and maybe a mini-stack or two…but I wouldn’t get carried away
Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians
Yarbrough and McKenzie look to get the starts here, as the Rays take on the Indians. We know McKenzie has the upside, but he’s also been all over the place, so it’s hard to really get behind him since he hasn’t pitched much this summer. Yarbrough has a pretty good carnage rating, but I think it’s more because of who he’s facing, since he’s had a few iffy outings lately. At first glance this one is hard to get a good feel for, so if you want to dig in to a game that’s bound to have lower exposure but some decent upside, this one is for you.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe, Meadows, Cruz, Arozarena, Diaz
GPP note – Hard to get a feel for McKenzie just yet, but traditional splits seem to be effective thus far. This wouldn’t be a bad spot to hedge
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Hernandez, Bradley
GPP note – These guys are struggling a bit against lefties, which could give Yarbrough the edge here, since he already has a low carnage rating. Can’t say I like this spot a whole lot
St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
We get two opposite pitchers here, as Oviedo and the Cardinals take on Gray and the Reds. Basically, this one looks to favor the home team, as Gray has been pretty good and the Cardinals aren’t a huge threat against righties right now. As for Oviedo, he’s allowing plenty, so this is a good spot for the Reds to do something.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt, DeJong/O’Neil
GPP note – There’s a little bit of reverse splits going on here, but not much. Outside of a select few bats, I don’t love this spot, either
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto, India, Winker, Aquino
GPP note – Really good spot for this offense, even if they’re a bit sleepy against righties right now. It’s a good spot for them to wake up, so don’t be afraid to grab some stacks
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New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
We head to Fenway for another Yankees/Red Sox game, and while it’s close, I think I like the Yankees just a tough more here. Lefties are what they prefer, especially a softer one like Perez, so I think the Red Sox will have their work cut out for them in this one. German has been up-and-down with his innings, so I don’t know how long he’ll last here. This could be another game stacking option for these hungry offenses.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – LeMahieu, Stanton, Torres, Odor
GPP note – These guys can really take it to a lefty, and Perez has been pretty soft, too. Good recipe for some fireworks, though probably some chalk, too
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Martinez, Devers, Bogaerts, Verdugo
GPP note – German has had some reverse splits issues as of late, so don’t be afraid to take some righties here
Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins
The Angels and Twins are up next, and like the Rays/Indians game, this one is a little strange. On one hand, Ober isn’t doing too bad, but he’s not doing very good, either. He’s allowing a lot of power and his SIERA is pretty bad, putting the Twins in a good spot. You know, the Twins that like to drop duds in good spots. As for Barria, if he starts, we haven’t seen him since May, so there’s no telling where he’ll be right away.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani, Walsh, Stassi
GPP note – Ober isn’t pitching terribly bad, but is allowing big power to both sides, so I like some small/medium (aka secondary) stacks here
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Donaldson, Kepler, Sano/Polanco
GPP note – If Barria starts, we don’t know where he’ll be just yet, so it wouldn’t hurt to grab some stacks here in case he’s a little shaky
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Up next are the Tigers and my Royals, and hey, it was nice to see some action last night. As for this next game, I’m not sure if it’ll be Lynch or somebody else pitching for KC, so the Tigers will be in another decent spot to do something here, as this bullpen isn’t exactly scary. As for the KC offense, righties are in the better spot here, so don’t be afraid to grab a few of them.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Schoop, Grossman/Candelario/Haase/Baddoo
GPP note – I don’t know if it’ll be Lynch or somebody else starting, but regardless, this bullpen isn’t scary, so these guys will have another opportunity to put up some runs
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Perez, Merrifield, Dozier
GPP note – Righties are the way to go here, as Skubal handles lefties fairly well
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
Our Texas teams face off next, with Dunning and Greinke looking to have the hill here. Greinke’s strikeouts aren’t where they could be, certainly not for his price on DK, though this would be a good spot for him to get things headed in the right direction. As for Houston, they’re in another good spot, as Dunning allows plenty to both sides, when he’s not being a middle-of-the-road pitcher against lesser teams. Yay, more chalk!
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Gallo?
GPP note – Though Greinke’s strikeouts aren’t where they could be right now, he’s still not the most fun target to attack, so be careful here. Maybe a one-off or small stack, just in case?
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve/Brantley, Correa
GPP note – Dunning allows plenty to both sides, but more to righties, so if these guys look to be chalky, you can go with some RvR and/or wrap-around stacks to help with that
Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs
Our final game of the main slate features the Diamondbacks and the Cubs, and I don’t hate either offense here. It’s true, both can drop huge duds at a moment’s notice, but they are both in decent spots to make something happen, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to dig in and see if you can find some gems here.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Escobar, Peralta, VanMeter, Walker
GPP note – Williams doesn’t strike many batters out, and he’s been pretty soft to both sides of the plate, so this could be a time to grab some bats and hope they do something in this spot
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Baez, Bryant/Rizzo, Heyward
GPP note – Smith is pitching okay, but is allowing big power to both sides, so wouldn’t be a bad spot to grab some Cubbies stacks
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Late slates
Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants
We kick off the late slates with the Pirates and Giants, another game that looks to be leaning towards the home team. Wood has one of the best carnage ratings on the day here, and plenty of strikeout upside, making him an attractive option. Brubaker almost matches him in upside, though with as much power as he’s allowing, I’m not so confident in his floor.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds/Frazier
GPP note – Not a great spot for these guys, so tread lightly
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Yastrzemski, Posey, Dickerson
GPP note – If they can avoid the K’s and keep the pressure on, some big hits might crack through here, making them a good stacking option
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers
Up next are the Rockies and Dodgers, with what looks to be a couple of Grays getting the start. Colorado’s Gray hasn’t looked too bad lately, and even if it is against the Dodgers, I don’t hate taking some shots here with how they seem to be slowing down. As for LA’s Gray, it’s hard to know what we’ll get out of him from a fantasy perspective (probably not much, though), but he will at least get a decent matchup here. This one has GPP written all over it.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon/Story, Cron
GPP note – A questionable matchup against Josiah, but these guys aren’t scorching hot or anything, so it’s
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Turner/Taylor, Bellinger, Pollock
GPP note – If Gray can do what Freeland did, we could see another dud here, so don’t be afraid to skip these guys or hedge
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
The Athletics take on the Mariners next, with Gonzales and Irvin looking to start this one. Gonzales has looked pretty rough, putting Oakland in a good spot to grab a win here, with some fireworks along the way. Irvin has a decent carnage rating and isn’t allowing a ton of power, so he might be worth a look here.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Olson, Lowrie/Canha/Laureano
GPP note – A good spot for these guys to do some damage from either side of the plate, so load up and get creative here to shy away from the chalk
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Seager/Haniger, France
GPP note – Not a great spot, as Irvin is pitching well and isn’t giving up a lot of power. Smaller stacks or one-offs would probably be best
Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers
And our final game of the day, our Sunday night game features the White Sox and the Brewers, with Lynn and Woodruff looking to start things for these two teams. Woodruff needs no introduction; he’s in a solid spot with plenty of upside. Lynn isn’t that far behind, and while his carnage isn’t quite as low, his strikeout upside in this matchup is nearly identical, so don’t be surprised if we see an ‘under’ game here.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Anderson, Abreu/Moncada
GPP note – Tough matchup against Woodruff, so don’t expect huge scores here. You’ll need to get creative here, perhaps a wrap-around mini-stack or such
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Adames, Peterson
GPP note – Tough matchup against Lynn too, though he is doing slightly worse than Woodruff, so you may find yourself having more of these bats
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Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Houston Astros – Nothing crazy here – just a good offense in a good spot against a pitcher who isn’t doing all that great to either side of the plate. Expect some ownership here.
- Cincinnati Reds – Maybe not as sexy of an option as some others, but carnage is on their side here, and I could see them putting up some runs against Oviedo.
- Toronto Blue Jays – Again, not exactly a sneaky call, but Hill has been allowing plenty and these guys are hungry for more runs. The 10 they put up last night probably weren’t enough to ease that hunger.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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